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Canada ‘likely at the start’ of new COVID-19 wave. How big will it get? – Global News

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Canada is likely at the start of a new wave of COVID-19, but how bad it will be is unknown, some health experts say.

The turn comes after months of low transmission of the virus, which continues to mutate and has recently spawned two variants — EG.5, a subvariant of Omicron, and BA.2.86 — that have captured the attention of scientists.

“We’re starting to see an uptick in cases after a pretty long decline. We saw really an impressive drop in the number of infections that started right at the end of 2022 and continued to all the way to the middle of this summer,” Dr. Fahad Razak, a professor at the University of Toronto and internal medicine physician at St. Michael’s Hospital, told Global News Wednesday.

“Over the last few weeks, we’ve started to see that rise again … It’s that expected rise. I think nothing of that is surprising to any of us that, after a period of decline as the virus continues to mutate, you’ll have a period where you start to have that increase again.”

Dr. Jesse Papenburg, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at the Montreal Children’s Hospital of the McGill University Health Centre, shared similar sentiments with Global News earlier this month.

“I think most people expect that there will be a certain amount of seasonality to COVID-19, and we do expect that the case counts will rise in the fall and winter,” he said.

“How much of a surge it will be remains to be seen.”

The latest data on COVID-19 in Canada

With two new COVID-19 lineages emerging just before the fall — a season when respiratory viruses thrive — Razak is warning Canadians to stay vigilant.

According to latest federal wastewater data, 10 regions reported an increase in COVID-19 activity. The latest data was updated Aug. 22 and contained information up to and including Aug. 15.



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Regions that reported increases include Bridgewater, N.S., St. John’s, N.L. and Edmonton, Alta. At least nine regions reported decreases, while 20 sites showed no change in data.

In terms of reported new infections, Canada logged 2,071 in the week of Aug. 6 to 12. However, case counts remain underestimated due to changes in reporting since at least December 2021, Ottawa states.



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Scientists, meanwhile, continue to closely monitor the virus and two of its variants, EG.5, a subvariant of Omicron, and BA.2.86, a mutation that so far appears distinct from its likely parents, including the currently-dominant XBB.1.5 variant of Omicron, which itself was much more transmissible and deadly than the original strain of SARS-CoV-2.

There is much to learn about both variants, but the World Health Organization has labelled E.G5 as a “variant of interest” and BA.2.86 a “variant under monitoring.”

“Public Health Agency of Canada scientists, along with national and international experts, are actively monitoring and evaluating BA.2.86 lineages,” a Health Canada spokesperson told Global News in a statement Friday. 

As of Friday, “there have been no detections of the BA.2.86 lineage in Canada,” spokesperson Anna Maddison said.



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Canada’s infection increase coincides with an erosion in immune protection and cooler weather, where more Canadians will be inside — an environment prime for respiratory viruses.

“My expectation is that after seeing a pretty long period of declining COVID numbers, we’ll start to see that uptick now heading into the fall and winter,” Razak said.

“We are likely at the start of a new wave here. … how big it will be remains unknown.”

COVID-19 hospitalizations rose last year: CIHI

Despite an overall slowing of COVID activity over the past year, new data highlights the impact the virus continues to have on hospitals.

The Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI) released data Wednesday showing COVID-19 hospitalizations increased by 19 per cent between April 2022 to March 2023. During that time frame, there were more than 120,000 hospital stays, an increase from 101,000 the previous year.

Meanwhile, COVID-19 emergency department visits were down. Emergency departments in Canada logged 222,000 COVID-19 visits between April 2022 to March 2023, down from 262,000 visits the year prior. CIHI noted its data excludes Quebec.



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“As we move out of the pandemic, COVID-19 continues to impact hospitals and EDs across the country,” said Juliana Wu, director of acute and ambulatory care information services with CIHI.

CIHI said of the 2022-23 COVID-19 hospitalizations, most patients were older with the median age being 75, compared with 63 the previous year.

Ninety per cent of emergency visits were completed within 25 hours, an increase from 15 hours the year before. The majority of patients (69 per cent) who went to emergency were discharged home, while 26 per cent were admitted to hospital.



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More than half (62 per cent) of patients admitted to hospital were discharged home, while 10 per cent died in the facility. The average length of stay in hospital increased to 20 days from 13 the previous year, CIHI noted.

Thirteen per cent of hospital stays included an ICU admission. Among those patients with ICU stays, 39 per cent received ventilation and 23 per cent died in the facility.



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“COVID remains a major issue still in hospitals,” Razak said.

“That severe respiratory COVID infection phase, we’re really not seeing that very much anymore, but COVID infecting people and causing problems still as exacerbating illnesses, causing people to be sick enough that they end up in hospital, that it still is occurring.”

COVID health tips for fall

In addition to cooler weather, more Canadians will be heading indoors at they to return to work in offices for the first time in three years.

Statistics Canada released a report Tuesday that showed that nearly 16 million Canadians — or four in five employees — commuted to work in May. This represents a 4.8 per cent increase compared with last year and a 26.2 per cent jump from 2021.



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Some intuitions are already taking measures to stop the spread of COVID as cases emerge.

In the United States, Hollywood film studio Lionsgate recently reinstated its mask mandate for its employees given a rise in COVID-19 cases, The Hollywood Reporter and The Guardian report.

Morris Brown College, a private school in Atlanta, Ga., said in an Instagram post it was reinstating its mask mandate due to reports of positive cases.



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Razak is advising Canadians to stay up-to-date on their vaccinations and to mask up in high-risk settings. He also recommended better air quality in buildings.

“We want society to move away from the severe disruptions we experienced the last few years and get back to all of those things we value,” he said.

In its latest COVID-19 vaccination guidance published last month, Canada’s National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) recommended all Canadians aged five years and up get a COVID-19 booster in the fall if it has been at least six months since their last vaccine dose or infection, whichever is later.

A bivalent vaccine that targets Omicron is currently available to Canadians, but NACI anticipates that the new vaccine formulations could be available this fall.

While an Omicron vaccine is ideal, any booster that is available is going to be effective at reducing infection, Dr. Prabhat Jha, an epidemiologist at Unity Health Toronto, told Global News earlier this month.

— With files from Global News’ Saba Aziz and Sean Boynton 

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Looking for the next mystery bestseller? This crime bookstore can solve the case

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WINNIPEG – Some 250 coloured tacks pepper a large-scale world map among bookshelves at Whodunit Mystery Bookstore.

Estonia, Finland, Japan and even Fenwick, Ont., have pins representing places outside Winnipeg where someone has ordered a page-turner from the independent bookstore that specializes in mystery and crime fiction novels.

For 30 years, the store has been offering fans of Agatha Christie’s Hercule Poirot or Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes a place to get lost in whodunits both old and new.

Jack and Wendy Bumsted bought the shop in the Crescentwood neighbourhood in 2007 from another pair of mystery lovers.

The married couple had been longtime customers of the store. Wendy Bumsted grew up reading Perry Mason novels while her husband was a historian with vast knowledge of the crime fiction genre.

At the time, Jack Bumsted was retiring from teaching at the University of Manitoba when he was looking for his next venture.

“The bookstore came up and we bought it, I think, within a week,” Wendy Bumsted said in an interview.

“It never didn’t seem like a good idea.”

In the years since the Bumsteds took ownership, the family has witnessed the decline in mail-order books, the introduction of online retailers, a relocation to a new space next to the original, a pandemic and the death of beloved co-owner Jack Bumsted in 2020.

But with all the changes that come with owning a small business, customers continue to trust their next mystery fix will come from one of the shelves at Whodunit.

Many still request to be called about books from specific authors, or want to be notified if a new book follows their favourite format. Some arrive at the shop like clockwork each week hoping to get suggestions from Wendy Bumsted or her son on the next big hit.

“She has really excellent instincts on what we should be getting and what we should be promoting,” Micheal Bumsted said of his mother.

Wendy Bumsted suggested the store stock “Thursday Murder Club,” the debut novel from British television host Richard Osman, before it became a bestseller. They ordered more copies than other bookstores in Canada knowing it had the potential to be a hit, said Michael Bumsted.

The store houses more than 18,000 new and used novels. That’s not including the boxes of books that sit in Wendy Bumsted’s tiny office, or the packages that take up space on some of the only available seating there, waiting to be added to the inventory.

Just as the genre has evolved, so has the Bumsteds’ willingness to welcome other subjects on their shelves — despite some pushback from loyal customers and initially the Bumsted patriarch.

For years, Jack Bumsted refused to sell anything outside the crime fiction genre, including his own published books. Instead, he would send potential buyers to another store, but would offer to sign the books if they came back with them.

Wendy Bumsted said that eventually changed in his later years.

Now, about 15 per cent of the store’s stock is of other genres, such as romance or children’s books.

The COVID-19 pandemic forced them to look at expanding their selection, as some customers turned to buying books through the store’s website, which is set up to allow purchasers to get anything from the publishers the Bumsteds have contracts with.

In 2019, the store sold fewer than 100 books online. That number jumped to more than 3,000 in 2020, as retailers had to deal with pandemic lockdowns.

After years of running a successful mail-order business, the store was able to quickly adapt when it had to temporarily shut its doors, said Michael Bumsted.

“We were not a store…that had to figure out how to get books to people when they weren’t here.”

He added being a community bookstore with a niche has helped the family stay in business when other retailers have struggled. Part of that has included building lasting relationships.

“Some people have put it in their wills that their books will come to us,” said Wendy Bumsted.

Some of those collections have included tips on traveling through Asia in the early 2000s or the history of Australian cricket.

Micheal Bumsted said they’ve had to learn to be patient with selling some of these more obscure titles, but eventually the time comes for them to find a new home.

“One of the great things about physical books is that they can be there for you when you are ready for them.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published on Sept. 15, 2024.



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Labour Minister praises Air Canada, pilots union for avoiding disruptive strike

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MONTREAL – Canada’s labour minister is praising both Air Canada and the union representing about 5,200 of its pilots for averting a work stoppage that would have disrupted travel for hundreds of thousands of passengers.

Steven MacKinnon’s comments came in a statement shared to social media shortly after Canada’s largest air carrier announced it had reached a tentative labour deal with the Air Line Pilots Association.

MacKinnon thanked both sides and federal mediators, saying the airline and its pilots approached negotiations with “seriousness and a resolve to get a deal.”

The tentative agreement averts a strike or lockout that could have begun as early as Wednesday for Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge, with flight cancellations expected before then.

The airline now says flights will continue as normal while union members vote on the tentative four-year contract.

Air Canada had called on the federal government to intervene in the dispute, but Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Friday that would only happen if it became clear no negotiated agreement was possible.

This report from The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.

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As plant-based milk becomes more popular, brands look for new ways to compete

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When it comes to plant-based alternatives, Canadians have never had so many options — and nowhere is that choice more abundantly clear than in the milk section of the dairy aisle.

To meet growing demand, companies are investing in new products and technology to keep up with consumer tastes and differentiate themselves from all the other players on the shelf.

“The product mix has just expanded so fast,” said Liza Amlani, co-founder of the Retail Strategy Group.

She said younger generations in particular are driving growth in the plant-based market as they are consuming less dairy and meat.

Commercial sales of dairy milk have been weakening for years, according to research firm Mintel, likely in part because of the rise of plant-based alternatives — even though many Canadians still drink dairy.

The No. 1 reason people opt for plant-based milk is because they see it as healthier than dairy, said Joel Gregoire, Mintel’s associate director for food and drink.

“Plant-based milk, the one thing about it — it’s not new. It’s been around for quite some time. It’s pretty established,” said Gregoire.

Because of that, it serves as an “entry point” for many consumers interested in plant-based alternatives to animal products, he said.

Plant-based milk consumption is expected to continue growing in the coming years, according to Mintel research, with more options available than ever and more consumers opting for a diet that includes both dairy and non-dairy milk.

A 2023 report by Ernst & Young for Protein Industries Canada projected that the plant-based dairy market will reach US$51.3 billion in 2035, at a compound annual growth rate of 9.5 per cent.

Because of this growth opportunity, even well-established dairy or plant-based companies are stepping up their game.

It’s been more than three decades since Saint-Hyacinthe, Que.-based Natura first launched a line of soy beverages. Over the years, the company has rolled out new products to meet rising demand, and earlier this year launched a line of oat beverages that it says are the only ones with a stamp of approval from Celiac Canada.

Competition is tough, said owner and founder Nick Feldman — especially from large American brands, which have the money to ensure their products hit shelves across the country.

Natura has kept growing, though, with a focus on using organic ingredients and localized production from raw materials.

“We’re maybe not appealing to the mass market, but we’re appealing to the natural consumer, to the organic consumer,” Feldman said.

Amlani said brands are increasingly advertising the simplicity of their ingredient lists. She’s also noticing more companies offering different kinds of products, such as coffee creamers.

Companies are also looking to stand out through eye-catching packaging and marketing, added Amlani, and by competing on price.

Besides all the companies competing for shelf space, there are many different kinds of plant-based milk consumers can choose from, such as almond, soy, oat, rice, hazelnut, macadamia, pea, coconut and hemp.

However, one alternative in particular has enjoyed a recent, rapid ascendance in popularity.

“I would say oat is the big up-and-coming product,” said Feldman.

Mintel’s report found the share of Canadians who say they buy oat milk has quadrupled between 2019 and 2023 (though almond is still the most popular).

“There seems to be a very nice marriage of coffee and oat milk,” said Feldman. “The flavour combination is excellent, better than any other non-dairy alternative.”

The beverage’s surge in popularity in cafés is a big part of why it’s ascending so quickly, said Gregoire — its texture and ability to froth makes it a good alternative for lattes and cappuccinos.

It’s also a good example of companies making a strong “use case” for yet another new entrant in a competitive market, he said.

Amid the long-standing brands and new entrants, there’s another — perhaps unexpected — group of players that has been increasingly investing in plant-based milk alternatives: dairy companies.

For example, Danone has owned the Silk and So Delicious brands since an acquisition in 2014, and long-standing U.S. dairy company HP Hood LLC launched Planet Oat in 2018.

Lactalis Canada also recently converted its facility in Sudbury, Ont., to manufacture its new plant-based Enjoy! brand, with beverages made from oats, almonds and hazelnuts.

“As an organization, we obviously follow consumer trends, and have seen the amount of interest in plant-based products, particularly fluid beverages,” said Mark Taylor, president and CEO of Lactalis Canada, whose parent company Lactalis is the largest dairy products company in the world.

The facility was a milk processing plant for six decades, until Lactalis Canada began renovating it in 2022. It now manufactures not only the new brand, but also the company’s existing Sensational Soy brand, and is the company’s first dedicated plant-based facility.

“We’re predominantly a dairy company, and we’ll always predominantly be a dairy company, but we see these products as complementary,” said Taylor.

It makes sense that major dairy companies want to get in on plant-based milk, said Gregoire. The dairy business is large — a “cash cow,” if you will — but not really growing, while plant-based products are seeing a boom.

“If I’m looking for avenues of growth, I don’t want to be left behind,” he said.

Gregoire said there’s a potential for consumers to get confused with so many options, which is why it’s so important for brands to find a way to differentiate themselves, whether it’s with taste, health, or how well the drink froths for a latte.

Competition in a more crowded market is challenging, but Taylor believes it results in better products for consumers.

“It keeps you sharp, and it forces you to be really good at what you’re doing. It drives innovation,” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.



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