Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s surprise political deal with the smaller left-leaning New Democrats will lead to heftier deficits and threatens to upend the Liberal government’s promise to rein in runaway inflation, economists said.
Trudeau on Tuesday announced a rare written “supply-and-confidence” agreement that will see the NDP prop up his minority government until 2025 in exchange for more social spending.
Top of the list is a dental-care program for low-income Canadians and a national prescription drug plan, both of which will likely be costly, permanent spending initiatives, economists said. Details of the two programs should emerge in the federal budget due to be presented next month.
With the Canadian economy already at capacity and price pressures mounting, incremental spending – even if merited – could complicate efforts to keep inflation expectations moored, said Rebekah Young, director of fiscal and provincial economics at Scotiabank.
“The finance minister risks further undermining Ottawa’s credibility in its commitment to tackling inflation,” she said.
Young expects the pact, which has been denounced by the main opposition Conservatives, will lead to an additional C$15 billion-C$20 billion ($12 billion-$16 billion) in government spending over the life of the three-year deal and potentially C$40 billion in total by fiscal 2026-2027.
The jump in tax revenue resulting from surging inflation will likely mask much of the new spending in the near term, she said, but the deal could add half a percentage point to structural deficits over the medium term.
Fitch Ratings stripped Canada of one of its coveted triple-A credit ratings in June 2020. S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service still give Canadian debt their highest ratings.
The federal government’s COVID-19 pandemic support programs have already pushed Canada’s debt-to-GDP ratio to a projected peak of 48.0% in 2021/2022 from 30.9% in 2018/2019. It could decline more slowly from there due to the increased spending.
“It does look like it would open the pocket books at the federal level,” said Pedro Antunes, chief economist at the Conference Board of Canada.
Canada, like other countries globally, is grappling with red-hot inflation, which hit a three-decade high of 5.7% in February. At the same time, businesses are scrambling to hire enough workers to meet booming demand.
New federal dental and prescription drug programs would require more specialized workers, who may demand higher wages, which could then create another round of inflation, Antunes said.
“We can start getting to that vicious spiral that we don’t want to be in,” Antunes said.
DEFENSE SPENDING
The Liberals pledged C$78 billion in stimulus over three years during last year’s election campaign. The NDP’s platform had priced a national drug plan at C$38.5 billion over five years and C$11 billion for dental coverage.
Spending under the deal will likely look quite different.
With Canada’s economy firing on all cylinders, analysts say the center-left Liberals should be focused on balancing the budget rather than adding stimulus so businesses do not grow concerned about the possibility of higher taxes.
“The right path is to grow the economy to pay for new spending measures – not the other way around,” said Robert Asselin, senior vice president of policy at the Business Council of Canada.
Adding to swelling expenses is the response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which may prompt Canada to boost defense spending.
“Our investments in our Canadian Armed Forces will continue to increase and we will have more to say about this at the appropriate time,” said Trudeau, speaking at a summit in Brussels to address the Ukraine crisis.
Trudeau said his deal with the NDP will not impact defense spending plans.
(Graphic: Canada’s federal debt – https://graphics.reuters.com/CANADA-POLITICS/ECONOMY/dwvkrqaalpm/chart.png)
(Reporting by Julie Gordon in Ottawa and Fergal Smith in Toronto; Editing by Paul Simao)
OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says the NDP is caving to political pressure from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre when it comes to their stance on the consumer carbon price.
Trudeau says he believes Jagmeet Singh and the NDP care about the environment, but it’s “increasingly obvious” that they have “no idea” what to do about climate change.
On Thursday, Singh said the NDP is working on a plan that wouldn’t put the burden of fighting climate change on the backs of workers, but wouldn’t say if that plan would include a consumer carbon price.
Singh’s noncommittal position comes as the NDP tries to frame itself as a credible alternative to the Conservatives in the next federal election.
Poilievre responded to that by releasing a video, pointing out that the NDP has voted time and again in favour of the Liberals’ carbon price.
British Columbia Premier David Eby also changed his tune on Thursday, promising that a re-elected NDP government would scrap the long-standing carbon tax and shift the burden to “big polluters,” if the federal government dropped its requirements.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
Simon Jolin-Barrette, minister responsible for consumer protection, has tabled a bill to force merchants to calculate tips based on the price before tax.
That means on a restaurant bill of $100, suggested tips would be calculated based on $100, not on $114.98 after provincial and federal sales taxes are added.
The bill would also increase the rebate offered to consumers when the price of an item at the cash register is higher than the shelf price, to $15 from $10.
And it would force grocery stores offering a discounted price for several items to clearly list the unit price as well.
Businesses would also have to indicate whether taxes will be added to the price of food products.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.
He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.
In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.
Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.
He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.
Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.
He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
