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Are fears for democracy justified in Canada Politics

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At ceremonies marking the 80th anniversary of D-Day in France a month ago, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau delivered a warning about the state of democracy.

It was, he said on Juno Beach, “still under threat today, … threatened by aggressors who want to redraw borders. It is threatened by demagogy, misinformation, disinformation, foreign interference.”

With Canadians poised to go to the polls in at least three provincial elections this fall, and a federal vote due next year, concerns about the strength of democracy are being raised on multiple fronts.

But is Canada’s democracy truly under threat? Political scientists say while Canadian politics and institutions are facing a myriad of concerns, the situation isn’t dire overall.

“From a comparative standpoint, Canada’s democracy is quite robust, and it’s quite strong from an institutional standpoint, in the sense that our elections are overall perceived as being fair,” said Daniel Béland, director of McGill University’s Institute for the Study of Canada.

“But again, it depends on what you’re looking at.”

Some of the most prominent concerns have emerged from allegations of foreign interference.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has accused Trudeau of “acting against Canada’s interest” for his handling of the allegations, while NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said Trudeau had sent a message that he is “willing to accept some level of foreign interference,” weakening democracy and undermining the confidence of Canadians.

Trudeau and the NDP, meanwhile, accused the Conservatives of undermining democratic institutions by trying to oust House of Commons Speaker Greg Fergus in May.

There was also an April cybersecurity attack on British Columbia government email addresses, which the province said was likely the work of a “state or state-sponsored” actor.

Premier David Eby asked Trudeau this month for access to information from Canada’s spy agency to help protect the people of the province and its democratic institutions.

B.C. goes to the polls on Oct. 19, while the New Brunswick election is set for two days later and the Saskatchewan election is Oct. 28. In Nova Scotia, Premier Tim Houston has cast doubt on whether he’ll stick with a fixed election date next summer, amid speculation of an early election.

In a 2023 report by democracy watchdog Freedom House, Canada scored a near-perfect 98 out of 100, losing points only for Quebec’s Bill 21 that bans some government employees from wearing religious symbols, and inequalities facing Indigenous and black communities.

The German Sustainable Governance Indicators project ranked Canada’s quality of democracy 10th in the world, again noting inequality with Indigenous communities as well as “cash-for-access” meetings between politicians and donors as areas of concern.

Patrick Fafard, professor of social sciences at the graduate school of public and international affairs at the University of Ottawa, said while the international rankings are encouraging, it is clear there are areas that must be addressed to maintain a high-quality democracy.

Fafard said one of the most visible changes in Canadian politics is the increasing pressure on politicians to engage in “short-term, chase-the-news-cycle” partisan rhetoric, which not only corrodes public trust in government but also can be prone to misinformation.

“I think I can say quite confidently that I’m more concerned now than I would have been, say, 10 or 20 years ago,” Fafard said. “There’s a constant challenge that politicians are tempted to engage in sloganeering and simple solutions, but problems are complex.

“The current controversy over foreign interference is a wonderful example of that,” he said.

The problem “is not one that can be solved by finger-pointing and trying to apportion blame,” he said.

“It requires that politicians think in the medium to long term and ask, ‘what can we do to first address the problem but also maintain the public’s confidence in elections?’

“And that is a different question than, ‘how can I turn this to my short-term advantage?'”

University of Toronto professor emeritus of history Robert Bothwell said angry, almost vitriolic, language in Canadian politics shouldn’t be concerning. It isn’t a new phenomenon, he said, and other periods have experienced even more contentious rhetoric.

“If you look back to First World War, Canadian politics were incredibly confrontational and very nasty,” Bothwell said. “People accusing each other of treason, and cartoons appeared in papers that I think could reasonably be described as racist.”

Fafard agreed that rhetoric and misinformation driven by populism isn’t new — what is new is that it is being “co-ordinated and funded in a way that we’ve never ever seen before.”

Such trends elsewhere — especially November’s U.S. presidential election — are also influencing the Canadian political landscape, he said.

Donald Trump’s bid to return to power has coincided with election denialism in the U.S. Congress.

A new report released last month by States United Action, a group that tracks election deniers, said nearly one-third of the lawmakers in the U.S. Congress supported in some way Trump’s bid to overturn the 2020 presidential election results or otherwise cast doubt on the reliability of elections. Several more are hoping to join them, running for election this year to the house and senate.

“It is an incredibly troubling phenomenon in the U.S. context, … where politicians are going out of their way to raise public doubt about the elections and electoral interference,” Fafard said.

He noted, however, that Canada does not appear to have anywhere near the same level of cynicism about public institutions, and similar strains on democracy shouldn’t appear in the short and medium term.

“In the long term, I’m not sure,” Fafard said. “The more this goes on in the United States, the more influence you will have over time. But at least in the short term, I think we’re somewhat insulated, at least from the extreme argument that says our elections can’t be trusted.”

Fafard said it is important for Canada to address “root causes” of mistrust. He said angry political rhetoric during the First World War and before the Second World War was driven by economic dislocation, and policymakers should address current economic vulnerability felt by many in the country.

Béland said while there are concerns about democracies abroad, solutions may also come from beyond Canada’s borders when it comes to maintaining democracy.

He said compulsory voting in Australia was an example of the type of electoral reform that Canada could examine.

“We should look at the reforms that have been adopted in other countries to address the democratic deficit or the apparent democratic crisis, and see whether these policies are working or not,” Béland said.

“And if they are working, we can look into maybe adapting some of these policies so that we should not really start from the perspective that we are unique and our problems don’t exist elsewhere.”

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 29, 2024

 

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Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

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OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

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WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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