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Canada potash project may cost BHP growth elsewhere

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BHP Group is under pressure from Canada to greenlight a giant potash project when it makes a final investment decision by mid-year but some investors said the world’s biggest miner may obtain better returns by ploughing the funds elsewhere.

The fertiliser ingredient will be in oversupply over much of the next decade, crimping returns from the project, and BHP may be better off investing more in commodities like copper and nickel which are seeing booming demand from the adoption of electric vehicles and solar power, they said.

The Anglo-Australian company would ease investor concerns if it firms up a plan to sell a stake in the project, one investor said. BHP has said a stake sale was an option.

The Jansen project in Canada‘s Saskatchewan province is estimated to cost up to $5.7 billion in the first phase which is expected to take five years and have an annual capacity to produce around 4.4 million tonnes of potash with an estimated mine life of 100 years. It will have capacity for an additional 12 million tonnes in stages thereafter.

BHP has already sunk $4.5 billion into the project, its first foray into potash, led by previous chief executive Andrew Mackenzie. The world’s biggest miner estimates demand for the ingredient could double by the late 2040s to become a $50 billion market.

The project would be Saskatchewan’s largest investment ever, said the province’s Energy and Resources Minister Bronwyn Eyre.

“We’re cautiously optimistic that this year will bring good news for the project. We hope it’s full steam ahead,” she said.

BHP’s annual capital expenditure of as much as $1.1 billion for the project would be significant compared with the $6.3 billion it expects to spend this year, and some investors said the money could be put to better use.

“I can understand the logic of developing it to diversify the earnings stream and create a long-return channel,” said Ben Cleary, portfolio manager at Tribeca Investment Partners in Singapore, which owns BHP shares.

“But I would be surprised not to see the majority of capex spend on base metals, given how positive they are on the latter. Are they really going to put potash ahead of base metals?”

IDLED CAPACITY

Market economics for potash currently are a challenge, say industry executives.

BHP would compete with Nutrien Ltd, Mosaic Co and K+S AG, all of which operate mines in Saskatchewan.

Nutrien has five million tonnes of idled potash capacity currently, Chief Executive Mayo Schmidt told Reuters earlier in May, though he expects rising demand to absorb that by 2030.

“Both Nutrien and Mosaic have latent capacity that could come on, and it’s certainly going to come on at better economics than a greenfield would,” Mosaic Chief Executive Joc O’Rourke told Reuters in an interview this month.

Some analysts, like Ben Isaacson of Scotiabank, though, are positive on Jansen.

The first phase would not significantly disrupt the market and the steady growth in global potash demand means the extra output will be needed by 2030, he said. Scotiabank in April pegged the probability of BHP approving Jansen’s first phase at 90%.

BHP chief executive Mike Henry has said he was not comfortable with the project’s spending but that a decision on its fate will be taken based on what it sees as the best use of shareholder capital. BHP declined to offer additional comment.

The silver lining in all the spending that has “de-risked” the project is that it may be easier for BHP to sell a stake, said one institutional investor who owns BHP shares and declined to be named because it was against his firm’s policy.

“They do need to start investing (more) in future facing commodities,” said the investor.

“They have said they may look to sell down the project once they have de-risked it. That sort of option could still be on the table.”

 

(Reporting by Clara Denina in London, Jeff Lewis in Toronto, Rod Nickel in Winnipeg and Melanie Burton in Melbourne; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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