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Canada Real Estate Prices Rise, But Could Change With The Recession

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Canadian real estate prices climbed according to another index, but it had a limited impact on sentiment. The TeranetNational Bank of Canada House Price Index (TNBC HPI) made a substantial climb in April. Despite the big increase for prices, the Big Six bank warned a rapidly changing macro environment could change the direction of this trend.

TNBC HPI

The TNBC HPI tracks the movement of resale home prices across Canada. It’s similar to the CREA HPI, with the point of measurement being the difference. The TNBC HPI uses land registry data for their transactions. CREA and local boards use the date when the sale is entered into the MLS. CREA’s data point occurs before the land registry, but is also limited to only board sales. The TNBC’s data is later, but more comprehensive.

In a normal market, the trend might not look all that different – possibly a little delayed. In a rapidly changing market, more sales tend to fall through. The TNBC HPI would better capture the true movement of prices in this case. However, there’s still that registry lag to consider. April’s numbers are going to be a better view of where the buyer mindset was in March, than it will be in the actual month.

Canadian Home Prices Accelerate, But That Could Come To An End Soon

The C11, a price index of Canada’s 11 largest markets, showed a substantial movement last month. Prices increased 1.35% in April, when compared to the previous month. Compared to the same month last year, prices are now 5.27% higher. NBC noted the increase for April was unusually high, being twice the average gain for the past 10 Aprils. Six out of eleven of the cities reached new all-time highs according to the index. They warned this could change with the economy approaching a recession.

Teranet-National Bank HPI C11 (Annual Change)

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Canada’s 11 largest cities, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Toronto Real Estate Prices Make Second Largest Climb

The index for Toronto showed one of the biggest gains across Canada. The index increased 1.99% in April, and is up 8.19% from last year. The monthly increase was second only to Ottawa, and puts the index at a new all-time high for prices.

Toronto Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Toronto, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Vancouver Real Estate Prices Stop Falling

Vancouver real estate prices made an annual increase for the first time in over a year. The region’s price index moved 0.61% higher in April, and is now up 0.36% from last year. Prices are still 4.39% down from the July 2018 peak, but annual gains have finally stopped showing declines. Just in time for a recession.

Vancouver Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Vancouver, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Montreal Real Estate Prices Grow Nearly Double Digits

Montreal real estate prices were up almost double digits compared to last year. The index increased 1.67% in April, and is up 9.51% from the same month last year. The region’s prices are at a new all-time high, and the annual price growth rate is starting to look like a parabolic ascent. Although it would be surprising to see that continue, considering how quickly mortgage payment deferrals are rising in Quebec.

Montreal Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Montreal, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Calgary Real Estate Prices Are Still Down From 2014

Calgary real estate prices are still down after over half a decade. The index increased 0.20% in April, but that still places prices 0.80% lower than last year. Prices are still down 8.05% from the peak reached in October 2014. Yes, Prices haven’t recovered in over half a decade, and they appear to be getting worse.

Calgary Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Calgary, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Overall the numbers looked strong, but there should be a little skepticism going forward. The report adds that high unemployment levels could mean homeowners are “unable to meet mortgages payments.” This could spark a flood of inventory, which in their opinion “could mean downward pressure on house prices.”

Source: – Better Dwelling

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Edited By Harry Miller

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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