Canada real estate: RBC Economics forecasts drop in condo prices in major markets in 2021 | Canada News Media
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Canada real estate: RBC Economics forecasts drop in condo prices in major markets in 2021

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For hopeful home buyers, next year may be a good time.

If it’s a condo in big markets like Vancouver or Toronto that they’re looking for, 2021 could be their lucky year.

A recent RBC Economics report forecasts a softening of condo prices in major residential markets.

“The bottom line is we expect condo prices to weaken in larger markets next year…,” economist Robert Hogue wrote.

In September 2020, condo prices declined slightly month-over-month in markets represented by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

REBGV covers Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Maple Ridge, Pitt Meadows, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

In its report on October 2, the board noted that sales of condos reached 1,596 last month, a 36.9 percent increase compared to the 1,166 sales in September 2019.

The benchmark price increased 4.5 percent increase from September 2019, but declined 0.3 percent compared to August 2020.

The price of a typical condo in REBGV markets was $683,500 last month.

Compared to three months ago, September’s benchmark price for condos represents a 0.4 percent increase.

However, when compared to six months ago, last month’s price was a 0.9 percent decrease.

Meanwhile, benchmark prices of detached homes and townhouses in the region in September 2020 increased month-over-month by 1.1 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively, in September.

The same happened in areas covered by the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. These are Surrey, North Delta, White Rock, Langley, Abbotsford, and Mission.

In September 2020, the benchmark price of a condo in FVREB markets was $436,900, a  0.1 percent decline compared to August of the same year.

Meanwhile, prices of detached homes and townhouses in the region increased 1.3 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively, over August.

Hogue made the prediction about weakening condo prices as part of his broader report about the Canadian housing situation and COVID-19.

The forecast comes in the heels of previous observations regarding a shift in buyer preference from condos to detached homes because of the pandemic.

Last July, Statistics Canada predicted such a shift.

“As working from home becomes more prevalent,” the agency stated,” we may see an increase in the demand for larger living spaces that single-family homes can offer, causing a shift in demand from condominium apartments towards single houses.”

On September 4, Hogue released a commentary about the August 2020 housing market, noting that buyers nationwide are “demonstrating a stronger preference for single-detached homes”.

Moreover, the “growing penchant for single-detached homes is supporting stronger price increases in that category”.

In his latest report on September 30, Hogue wrote that the “impact of COVID-19 on the housing market is complex”.

According to Hogie, it will “lead to diverging price trends among regions and housing categories”.

“It is cooling demand for and boosting supply of rentals in large urban areas,” the economist explained. “This, in turn, is reducing investor interest in condos.”

As noted previously, the pandemic is “also altering the housing needs of many current owners who look for more spacious properties in less crowded settings”.

“This is simultaneously shifting demand from condo apartments to single-detached homes and other low-rise categories, and increasing the supply of smaller condos in core urban areas,” Hogue wrote.

Moreover, “Work-from-home arrangements and the lesser appeal of big-city living (with reduced cultural and socializing opportunities during these times of social distancing) are increasingly driving buyers further away from downtown locations into suburbs, exurbs and even cottage country.”

 

Source:- The Georgia Straight

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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