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Canada rental vacancy rate shrinks to lowest point since 1988

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Canada’s average rent saw record growth in 2023 as demand outpaced supply, while the rental vacancy rate reached a record low of 1.5 per cent, a new report shows.

Released Wednesday, the annual report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) said the national vacancy rate for purpose-built rental units last year was the lowest since 1988, when the organization began recording the metric. The federal housing agency uses purpose-built rentals as its representative sample.

By comparison, the vacancy rate for those units was 1.9 per cent in 2022, which at the time was the lowest rate seen in more than two decades.

The national vacancy rate reflects the percentage of unoccupied and available residential units across the country. A lower rate typically means greater competition among renters and a higher incentive for unit owners to raise their rates.

For two-bedroom condominiums up for rent, the average vacancy rate fell from 1.6 per cent in 2022 to 0.9 per cent in 2023.

“While the recent revival of rental construction has been encouraging, it was evidently not enough to ease the market and curb steep rent increases,” the report reads.

Rent outpacing inflation

Rent prices soared in most markets, consistent with the observed decline in vacancy rates.

Growth in the average rent for two-bedroom purpose built apartments accelerated “sharply” to a record eight per cent in 2023, in a jump that outpaced both inflation (4.7 per cent) and wage growth (five per cent).

That left renters paying, on average, $1,359 per month for those units last year.

That growth figure was up from the 5.6 per cent rent growth recorded in 2022 and well above the 2.8 per cent growth documented from 1990-2022.

Meanwhile, the average rent for two-bedroom condos was $2,049 in 2023, up $1,929 from the previous year. This represented a six per cent increase.

Not all markets impacted equally

Lower-income renters faced significant competition in their hunts for affordable rates. In some cities, finding affordable units was next to impossible.

For a rate to be considered affordable, it should cost less than 30 per cent of a renter household’s before-tax income,CMHC said.

In Vancouver, Ottawa and Toronto, the proportion of rental units considered affordable for the bottom 20 per cent of earners was “statistically zero,” the federal housing agency said.

In Edmonton, those units made up 12.7 per cent of total spaces. In Calgary, 3.1 per cent of apartments were considered affordable for low-income renters.

In Montreal, 18.1 per cent of apartments were available at affordable rates for low-income earners. However, many of them were either bachelor or one-bedroom apartments, which could be unfit for families.

As for vacancy rates, Calgary and Edmonton saw steep declines. Their vacancy rates fell from 2.7 in 2022 to 1.4 per cent in 2023, and 4.3 to 2.4 per cent over the same period, respectively.

Vancouver remained the tightest rental market in the country, with a vacancy rate of 0.9 per cent, unchanged from 2022. Ottawa’s vacancy rate also remained the same as the 2022 level, sitting at 2.1 per cent.

In Toronto, Canada’s largest city, the vacancy rate dropped from 1.6 to 1.4 per cent. Meanwhile, in Montreal, the rate fell from two per cent to 1.5 per cent.

Vancouver remains the most expensive rental market, with $2,181 being the average monthly rent for a two-bedroom purpose-built apartment, followed by Toronto, where the average rent for those units was $1,961 in 2023.

The least expensive apartments are concentrated in Quebec, exemplified by Montreal’s relatively low 2023 average two-bedroom rent of $1,096.

Immigration, other factors impacting demand

Immigration led to increased demand for rental units in most large centres, while high interprovincial migration contributed in communities in Alberta, the report notes.

With net immigration to Canada trending sharply higher since 2020, there was increased pressure on the rental markets of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, cities that are also the destination for many international students.

The federal government recently announced a two-year limit on foreign student enrolment, cutting the number of new permits by 35 per cent this year.

As CTV News reported, observers say the new cap on international students admitted to the country will cool the high demand for rental units and slow the rate of rent hikes, but it won’t necessarily be a big factor in solving the housing affordability crisis.

In Edmonton and Calgary, the influx of interprovincial migrants — people who move from one province to another — led to increased demand.

The report suggests people are likely drawn to Alberta — at least partly — by the relatively strong employment growth in Calgary and Edmonton as well as lower home prices relative to Toronto and Vancouver.

Employment growth among young Canadians and the low affordability of homeownership also led to increased demand in the rental market overall.

With files from The Canadian Press 

 

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Politics likely pushed Air Canada toward deal with ‘unheard of’ gains for pilots

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MONTREAL – Politics, public opinion and salary hikes south of the border helped push Air Canada toward a deal that secures major pay gains for pilots, experts say.

Hammered out over the weekend, the would-be agreement includes a cumulative wage hike of nearly 42 per cent over four years — an enormous bump by historical standards — according to one source who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. The previous 10-year contract granted increases of just two per cent annually.

The federal government’s stated unwillingness to step in paved the way for a deal, noted John Gradek, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made it plain the two sides should hash one out themselves.

“Public opinion basically pressed the federal cabinet, including the prime minister, to keep their hands clear of negotiations and looking at imposing a settlement,” said Gradek, who teaches aviation management at McGill University.

After late-night talks at a hotel near Toronto’s Pearson airport, the country’s biggest airline and the union representing 5,200-plus aviators announced early Sunday morning they had reached a tentative agreement, averting a strike that would have grounded flights and affected some 110,000 passengers daily.

The relative precariousness of the Liberal minority government as well as a push to appear more pro-labour underlay the prime minister’s hands-off approach to the negotiations.

Trudeau said Friday the government would not step in to fix the impasse — unlike during a massive railway work stoppage last month and a strike by WestJet mechanics over the Canada Day long weekend that workers claimed road roughshod over their constitutional right to collective bargaining. Trudeau said the government respects the right to strike and would only intervene if it became apparent no negotiated deal was possible.

“They felt that they really didn’t want to try for a third attempt at intervention and basically said, ‘Let’s let the airline decide how they want to deal with this one,'” said Gradek.

“Air Canada ran out of support as the week wore on, and by the time they got to Friday night, Saturday morning, there was nothing left for them to do but to basically try to get a deal set up and accepted by ALPA (Air Line Pilots Association).”

Trudeau’s government was also unlikely to consider back-to-work legislation after the NDP tore up its agreement to support the Liberal minority in Parliament, Gradek said. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, whose party has traditionally toed a more pro-business line, also said last week that Tories “stand with the pilots” and swore off “pre-empting” the negotiations.

Air Canada CEO Michael Rousseau had asked Ottawa on Thursday to impose binding arbitration pre-emptively — “before any travel disruption starts” — if talks failed. Backed by business leaders, he’d hoped for an effective repeat of the Conservatives’ move to head off a strike in 2012 by legislating Air Canada pilots and ground crew to stick to their posts before any work stoppage could start.

The request may have fallen flat, however. Gradek said he believes there was less anxiety over the fallout from an airline strike than from the countrywide railway shutdown.

He also speculated that public frustration over thousands of cancelled flights would have flowed toward Air Canada rather than Ottawa, prompting the carrier to concede to a deal yielding “unheard of” gains for employees.

“It really was a total collapse of the Air Canada bargaining position,” he said.

Pilots are slated to vote in the coming weeks on the four-year contract.

Last year, pilots at Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines secured agreements that included four-year pay boosts ranging from 34 per cent to 40 per cent, ramping up pressure on other carriers to raise wages.

After more than a year of bargaining, Air Canada put forward an offer in August centred around a 30 per cent wage hike over four years.

But the final deal, should union members approve it, grants a 26 per cent increase in the first year alone, retroactive to September 2023, according to the source. Three wage bumps of four per cent would follow in 2024 through 2026.

Passengers may wind up shouldering some of that financial load, one expert noted.

“At the end of the day, it’s all us consumers who are paying,” said Barry Prentice, who heads the University of Manitoba’s transport institute.

Higher fares may be mitigated by the persistence of budget carrier Flair Airlines and the rapid expansion of Porter Airlines — a growing Air Canada rival — as well as waning demand for leisure trips. Corporate travel also remains below pre-COVID-19 levels.

Air Canada said Sunday the tentative contract “recognizes the contributions and professionalism of Air Canada’s pilot group, while providing a framework for the future growth of the airline.”

The union issued a statement saying that, if ratified, the agreement will generate about $1.9 billion of additional value for Air Canada pilots over the course of the deal.

Meanwhile, labour tension with cabin crew looms on the horizon. Air Canada is poised to kick off negotiations with the union representing more than 10,000 flight attendants this year before the contract expires on March 31.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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Energy minister says public money could help finance Alberta energy cleanup

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EDMONTON – Alberta’s energy minister is promising strong action by next fall to clean up the province’s growing backlog of unreclaimed oil and gas sites.

“There are many oil wells to reclaim and the current system is unlikely to see them reclaimed,” Brian Jean said in an interview with The Canadian Press.

But Jean said industry might need help from public finances to live up to its legal obligations, as well as lower municipal tax burdens and a lighter regulatory approach.

“I don’t like sticks. I like carrots,” Jean said.

“Without changes to how we approach fixed costs and we approach financing well closure, we won’t make the required progress. We need to find new ways to do liability financing, and we need to change the approach on municipal taxes.”

Alberta government figures show the province has nearly a half-million energy wells. Less than a quarter are reclaimed.

Meanwhile, the province’s conventional oilpatch is in decline, with production falling slightly over the last decade. Less than 30 per cent of Alberta’s wells are new or active.

The squeeze between growing environmental liabilities and falling revenue has many worried about who will pay the cleanup bill. The tab has been estimated at anywhere from $59 billion to $260 billion.

Energy companies are required to clean up after themselves as a condition of their licences, and Jean said he supports the principle of polluter pay.

“It’s important to me to make certain industry is responsible for its own messes,” he said.

But they may need a little help.

“To stimulate activities that are necessary to protect Albertans, we might have to do some investment,” said Jean. “I’m not going to rule anything out.”

The United Conservative Party government has already proposed two programs that would use taxpayer dollars to help energy companies pay for their legally required cleanup. Both have been heavily criticized.

Jean said municipal taxes on energy facilities will also be scrutinized. He suggested municipal leaders are open to the idea that some taxes are better than no taxes at all.

“They understand that the industry needs to be healthy in order to pay municipal taxes. You have to have a tax that actually makes sense.

“They also understand we’re in it together.”

Rural Municipalities Alberta calculates provincial moves have cost its members $9 billion in reduced assessments and $332 million in mandated tax holidays on top of $252 million in unpaid taxes.

Jean refused to commit whether industry levies, such as those that go into the fund that cleans up abandoned wells, would increase.

“At this stage, I would say the Orphan Well Association is well funded. But the truth is, it’s going to change.”

Rules governing oilpatch operations may also change.

“We need to make sure our industry is able to operate competitively and, as such, lower the regulatory burden as far as things that aren’t necessary,” Jean said.

He said the Alberta Energy Regulator’s current board of experts and industry players has removed what he calls “politics” from the board’s decisions.

“That’s why we want experts on the board and filled it with people who find solutions rather than just complaints.”

Meanwhile, Jean’s government is considering a report that recommends the regulator operate more closely with politicians.

The report, by longtime industry insider and conservative activist David Yager, suggests the regulator “improve long-term planning and strategic alignment between the Government of Alberta and the (regulator).”

Consultation on new legislation, which Jean said he hopes to introduce in fall 2025, is already being organized. Six discussion tables are being formed with industry players, landowners, reclamation experts, rural municipalities and Indigenous oil and gas interests.

Jean listed organizations he planned to hear from but did not mention any environmental groups. There are no forums planned for public input.

“As far as public participation in letter-writing campaigns or open-mike sessions, I don’t see that,” Jean said. “I invite people to write to their provincial representative.”

Alberta’s environmental legacy from decades of oil and gas extraction has grown under Progressive Conservative, New Democrat and UCP governments. Jean said the current regime is the one that will finally face up to the problem.

“We are more aggressive on this cleanup file than anybody else in the world,” he said.

“It’s one that’s been ignored by governments for years, because they’ve been afraid of it. I’m not going to be afraid.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.



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Donald Trump doesn’t share details about his family’s cryptocurrency venture during X launch event

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on Monday launched his family’s cryptocurrency venture, World Liberty Financial, with an interview on the X social media platform in which he also gave his first public comments on the apparent assassination attempt against him a day earlier.

Trump did not discuss specifics about World Liberty Financial or how it would work, pivoting from questions about cryptocurrency to talking about artificial intelligence or other topics. Instead, he recounted his experience Sunday, saying he and a friend playing golf “heard shots being fired in the air, and I guess probably four or five.”

“I would have loved to have sank that last putt,” Trump said. He credited the Secret Service agent who spotted the barrel of a rifle and began firing toward it as well as law enforcement and a civilian who he said helped track down the suspect.

World Liberty Financial is expected to be a borrowing and lending service used to trade cryptocurrencies, which are forms of digital money that can be traded over the internet without relying on the global banking system. Exchanges often charge fees for withdrawals of Bitcoin and other currencies.

Other speakers after Trump, including his eldest son, Don Jr., talked about embracing cryptocurrency as an alternative to what they allege is a banking system tilted against conservatives.

Experts have said a presidential candidate launching a business venture in the midst of a campaign could create ethical conflicts.

“Taking a pro-crypto stance is not necessarily troubling; the troubling aspect is doing it while starting a way to personally benefit from it,” Jordan Libowitz, a spokesperson for the government watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, said earlier this month.

During his time in the White House, Trump said he was “not a fan” of cryptocurrency and tweeted in 2019, “Unregulated Crypto Assets can facilitate unlawful behavior, including drug trade and other illegal activity.” However, during this election cycle, he has reversed himself and taken on a favorable view of cryptocurrencies.

He announced in May that his campaign would begin accepting donations in cryptocurrency as part of an effort to build what it calls a “crypto army” leading up to Election Day. He attended a bitcoin conference in Nashville this year, promising to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the planet” and create a bitcoin “strategic reserve” using the currency that the government currently holds.

Hilary Allen, a law professor at American University who has done research on cryptocurrencies, said she was skeptical of Trump’s change of heart on crypto.

“I think it’s fair to say that that reversal has been motivated in part by financial interests,” she said.

Crypto enthusiasts welcomed the shift, viewing the launch as a positive sign for investors if Trump retakes the White House.

Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign has not offered policy proposals on how it would regulate digital assets like cryptocurrencies.

In an effort to appeal to crypto investors, a group of Democrats, including Sens. Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, participated in an online “Crypto 4 Harris” event in August.

Neither Harris nor members of her campaign staff attended the event.

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Gomez Licon contributed from Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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