Details of the coming trip— on March 23 and 24 —were confirmed by Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) and the White House on Thursday last week. The trip also includes an address to Parliament.
The two world leaders have had chances to connect over the past two years. Biden’s first “virtual” international bilateral was with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in February of 2022 when both countries were still in the throes of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, Biden and Trudeau have met on the sidelines of various international events, yet, there has not had a trip dedicated to the U.S.-Canada relationship.
“To me it’s overdue…. if it hadn’t been for COVID, it should have happened right away,” said Chris Sands, director of the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute in Washington. “Trump never did a state visit, the one time he went to Canada was for the G7 in 2018 and that ended badly. The last senior nationally-elected figure to visit Canada was Biden in 2016 at the end of the Obama administration.”
Sands described the gap in U.S. presidential visits north of the border as a “kind of timeout” from state visits. “The problem is Presidents and Prime Ministers see each other at all kinds of other things…. the importance of the trip is going to say hello to Canadians,” he added.
Here’s a look at some of the cross-border issues to be discussed during the visit:
BORDER CONCERNS
The United States and Canada are under pressure to address the sharp increase in the level of irregular migration on both sides of the U.S.-Canada border.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection reports an 846 per cent increase in irregular crossings from Canada along a section of the northeastern border. The flow of asylum seekers entering Canada from the United States has also spiked; nearly 40,000 last year, many at irregular border crossings like Roxham Road on the Quebec-Vermont border.
“That increase in the number of people arriving is quite stark… for Canada they are significant,” said Susan Fratzke, a senior policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute in Washington, D.C.
The border issue is opening up a new line of attack for the opposition in both countries. “This is Joe Biden’s border crisis,” said New York Republican Congresswoman Elise Stefanik at the launch of the all-Republican Northern Border Caucus last month. “What the Biden administration needs to do is focus on border security and admit that we have a problem.”
In Canada, the Conservatives echo this sentiment. “If we are a real country, we have borders. And if this is a real prime minister, he is responsible for those borders,” Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre told reporters last month in Ottawa
Canadian Immigration Minister Sean Fraser met with American counterparts last week in Washington and the work towards a “lasting solution” is ongoing. But, with Quebec bearing the brunt of the migrant increase, Premier Francois Legault urged the prime minister to prioritize renegotiating a decades-old asylum pact during Biden’s visit.
Under the Safe Third Country Agreement, individuals are required to request asylum at the first safe country they enter, preventing migrants from transiting through the United States to request asylum in Canada. The issue: the claim needs to be at legal border crossing.
“The only way to effectively shut down, not just Roxham Road, but the entire border to these irregular crossings is to re-negotiate the Safe Third Country Agreement,” Trudeau told reporters last month.
However, Fratzke says it is not that easy. “It may send a message…but even if it’s changed, it’s likely that people will still continue to try to cross in different ways,” she added.
CRITICAL MINERALS
Another likely topic is the transition to clean energy and critical minerals. These are essential components in green technologies from solar panels to electric vehicle batteries and a potential growing source of middle-class jobs. Canada is home to nearly half of the world’s publicly listed mining and mineral exploration firms. This represents a combined market capitalization of $520 billion, according to the Canadian government’s critical mineral strategy.
A large component of that strategy is a mineral value chain, which keeps the mining, refining, and manufacturing in Canada, but the process is not without delays.
“This is kind of a pinch point…the American position generally is Canada has been a bit of a disappointment. Not that they don’t have it, it’s just they aren’t moving fast enough,” said Sands. “The American process is a mess as well, but the United States is moving faster to develop critical minerals.”
Canada has issues with the Americans as well, like parts of U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, which offers billions of subsidies to incentive EV battery manufacturing in America.
“Canada will want to turn the subject to American subsidies, America can always out subsidize,” said Sands. “I think there’s a good case that as industrial policy, the U.S. is defeating its purpose…. all [they’re] doing is just moving EV battery factories in the United States at the expense of South Korea, Europe and Canada. That isn’t going to create more.”
Growing the electric vehicle sector is a priority for the Liberal government. Just this week, Volkswagen picked St. Thomas, Ont. for the site of its first EV battery factory. The battery plant is expected to come online next year and both federal and provincial officials called the decision a “major vote of confidence” in Canada’s EV sector.
The St. Thomas plant isn’t the only EV facility seeing money being poured into it. Further east in Nova Scotia, Michelin announced it is spending $140 million on modernizing its Bridgewater plant to produce more electric vehicles tires.
DEFENCE PRIORITIES
Internationally, the war in Ukraine will likely also take top billing during these meetings. A year into the conflict, the United States and Canada continue to express a desire to hold Moscow accountable for it’s actions with both countries accusing Russia of war crimes.
There are reports the International Criminal Court is planning to open investigations into Russia, something Canada has previously asked for. The United States is not a member of the ICC but it is considering ways to aid the court.
Canada continues to support Ukraine as well. Canadian troops have trained thousands of Ukrainian solders, and it has also committed more than one billion dollars in military aid including eight Leopard 2 Tanks.
On NATO’s eastern flank, Ottawa is also planning to double its presence in Latvia. Defence Minister Anita Anand recently announced the planned purchase of portable-anti-tank missiles, anti-drone technology, and air defence systems for its NATO mission in the country.
The ongoing crisis in Haiti is also likely to come up during the talks. There are reports the Biden administration officials are pressuring Ottawa for a decision on leading a multinational force to assist the country with its battle against gang control.
In January, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters Canada expressed interest in taking on a leadership role. Canada’s top general recently told Reuters he is concerned that the country does not have capacity to lead a Haiti mission on top of supporting Ukraine and NATO.
“There’s only so much to go around… it would be challenging,” Chief of the Defence Staff Wayne Eyre told Reuters.
Closer to home, both leaders are expected to discuss modernizing Norad. This will be their first meeting since the downing of the Chinese surveillance balloon, and three other subsequent unidentified floating objects that prompted days of shootdowns across both U.S. and Canadian airspace.
“The Chinese balloon captured people’s attention and gave a reason for Canada to say yeah, wait a minute, this is a threat… we should be spending more money,” said Sands.
ASSESSING THE RELATIONSHIP
The two-day trip should provide both countries the chance to address simmering irritants and improve relations on both sides of the border.
In a briefing to reporters, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said the trip would “reaffirm the United States’ commitment to the U.S.-Canada partnership and promote our shared security, shared prosperity, and shared values.”
Trudeau said in a statement that he looks forward to welcoming Biden to Canada adding, “We will continue working together as we defend our continent and our shared values, create more opportunities for people and businesses on both sides of the border.”
While Sands says there is nothing on the agenda that is “a full-blown crisis,” he described the relationship between the two countries as “isn’t great, but it’s fine.”
“I think we’re just in a period where our internal divisions are worse than our bilateral ones. And so we’re going to kind of just hold the bilateral and try to tamp down any potential crisis,” said Sands.
Demands for government intervention in Air Canada labour talks could negatively affect airline competition in Canada, the CEO of travel company Transat AT Inc. said.
“The extension of such an extraordinary intervention to Air Canada would be an undeniable competitive advantage to the detriment of other Canadian airlines,” Annick Guérard told analysts on an earnings conference call on Thursday.
“The time and urgency is now. It is time to restore healthy competition in Canada,” she added.
Air Canada has asked the federal government to be ready to intervene and request arbitration as early as this weekend to avoid disruptions.
Comments on the potential Air Canada pilot strike or lock out came as Transat reported third-quarter financial results.
Guérard recalled Transat’s labour negotiations with its flight attendants earlier this year, which the company said it handled without asking for government intervention.
The airline’s 2,100 flight attendants voted 99 per cent in favour of a strike mandate and twice rejected tentative deals before approving a new collective agreement in late February.
As the collective agreement for Air Transat pilots ends in June next year, Guérard anticipates similar pressure to increase overall wages as seen in Air Canada’s negotiations, but reckons it will come out “as a win, win, win deal.”
“The pilots are preparing on their side, we are preparing on our side and we’re confident that we’re going to come up with a reasonable deal,” she told analysts when asked about the upcoming negotiations.
The parent company of Air Transat reported it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31. The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.
Revenue totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.
On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.
It attributed reduced revenues to lower airline unit revenues, competition, industry-wide overcapacity and economic uncertainty.
Air Transat is also among the airlines facing challenges related to the recall of Pratt & Whitney turbofan jet engines for inspection and repair.
The recall has so far grounded six aircraft, Guérard said on the call.
“We have agreed to financial compensation for grounded aircraft during the 2023-2024 period,” she said. “Alongside this financial compensation, Pratt & Whitney will provide us with two additional spare engines, which we intend to monetize through a sell and lease back transaction.”
Looking ahead, the CEO said she expects consumer demand to remain somewhat uncertain amid high interest rates.
“We are currently seeing ongoing pricing pressure extending into the winter season,” she added. Air Transat is not planning on adding additional aircraft next year but anticipates stability.
“(2025) for us will be much more stable than 2024 in terms of fleet movements and operation, and this will definitely have a positive effect on cost and customer satisfaction as well,” the CEO told analysts.
“We are more and more moving away from all the disruption that we had to go through early in 2024,” she added.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
