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Canada unemployment rate: 5.5% increase July

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OTTAWA –

Canada’s labour market is softening as the unemployment rate rises for a third consecutive month, offering some evidence the economy is finally slowing down.

Statistics Canada reported Friday employment was little changed in July, falling by 6,400 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.5 per cent as the economy struggles to create enough jobs to match the pace of population growth.

The federal agency says job losses last month were led by the construction industry, while the greatest job gains were made in health care and social assistance.

May served as a turning point in the labour market: the unemployment rate rose for the first time in nine months. Prior to that, the unemployment rate was hovering at five per cent, just above the all-time low of 4.9 per cent reached last summer.

As Canada’s population continues to grow rapidly, rising unemployment signals the economy isn’t creating enough jobs to absorb a larger workforce.

“We’ve seen a consistent increase in the number of people without a job in Canada, but people that are still in the labour force,” said James Orlando, TD’s director of economics.

Job vacancies have also declined in the country, offering another sign that the labour market is loosening.

Orlando says high population growth is helping the economy stay afloat as newcomers add to demand. So instead of high interest rates leading to outright job losses, Orlando says the unemployment rate is rising.

“When people come to Canada, even if they don’t get a job right away, they’re consumers, right? They’re looking for housing, they need to buy food, they need to buy clothes. And so they’re buying stuff within the economy. And that is a demand shock,” Orlando said.

“It’s putting a floor under the economy at a time when most people would have thought it would be contracting.”

The Canadian economy has outperformed expectations this year, pushing the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates again in both June and July.

By raising the cost of borrowing for consumers and businesses, the central bank is hoping the economy will slow enough to bring inflation back to its two per cent target.

With the central bank’s key interest rate now sitting at five per cent — the highest it’s been since 2001 — all eyes are on what it chooses to do in September.

Orlando says the economic outlooks suggests the Bank of Canada doesn’t need to raise interest rates again next month.

TD’s updated forecasts suggest the economy will continue to slow, pushing up the unemployment rate to 6.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024.

“Every single day that goes by, more and more people are going to be impacted by the rising cost of housing, specifically on rising mortgage rates, and so it’s going to force a lot of people to adjust their spending habits,” Orlando said.

BMO’s chief economist, Douglas Porter also agrees that the chances of a rate hike in September are falling.

“The soft July employment report is just the latest arrow in the quiver of signs that the economy is losing momentum. Along with the recent friendly CPI result, we believe that the case for the Bank of Canada moving to the sidelines is now very strong,” Porter wrote in a client note.

But with underlying price pressures and wage growth still high, Porter said rates may have to stay high for long.

Inflation in June fell to 2.8 per cent, within the Bank of Canada’s target range of one to three per cent. But core measures of inflation which strip out volatility show prices are still rising quickly and new forecasts from the central bank suggest it expects inflation to get back to two per cent by mid-2025.

The central bank has also raised concerns about the pace of wage growth, noting rapid wage gains would make it challenging to get inflation back to target.

But Orlando says wage growth is a “lagging indicator,” meaning workers are getting wage increases to reflect the rapid rise of inflation that already occurred. But falling job vacancies and rising unemployment suggest high wage growth won’t persist.

“These are the best indicators that you’re not going to get keep wages growing at this five per cent level going forward or into perpetuity, they’re going to ease based on the fact that the labour market is clearly loosening,” Orlando said.

A quick look at Canada’s July employment (numbers from the previous month in brackets):

  • Unemployment rate: 5.5 per cent (5.4)
  • Employment rate: 62.0 per cent (62.2)
  • Participation rate: 65.6 per cent (65.7)
  • Number unemployed: 1,166,800 (1,147,100)
  • Number working: 20,166,400 (20,172,800)
  • Youth (15-24 years) unemployment rate: 10.2 per cent (11.5)
  • Men (25 plus) unemployment rate: 4.6 per cent (4.4)
  • Women (25 plus) unemployment rate: 4.8 per cent (4.4)

Here’s a quick glance at unemployment rates for July, by province:

  • Newfoundland and Labrador 8.7 per cent (8.8)
  • Prince Edward Island 8.1 per cent (8.2)
  • Nova Scotia 7.7 per cent (6.4)
  • New Brunswick 6.2 per cent (6.4)
  • Quebec 4.5 per cent (4.4)
  • Ontario 5.6 per cent (5.7)
  • Manitoba 4.9 per cent (4.3)
  • Saskatchewan 5.1 per cent (4.7)
  • Alberta 6.1 per cent (5.7)
  • British Columbia 5.4 per cent (5.6)

 

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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