Canada will need more rate increases to cool housing frenzy, economists say - The Globe and Mail | Canada News Media
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Canada will need more rate increases to cool housing frenzy, economists say – The Globe and Mail

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Construction work continues at the site of a condominium development in downtown Toronto on Oct 18, 2021. The last time the Bank of Canada embarked on a series of rate increases was after the 2016 real estate boom in Toronto and Vancouver.Fred Lum/The Globe and Mail

The Bank of Canada’s decision to raise interest rates on Wednesday is not expected to cool the country’s frenzied real estate market, with homebuyers still able to get cheap mortgages to compete for properties.

Economists said it will take multiple interest rate increases – not just Wednesday’s 25-basis-point increase to 0.5 per cent – before borrowing costs rise meaningfully. (A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.)

“I don’t think 25 basis points alone would have much of an impact on the housing market. It will take a series of rate increases to achieve that,” said Jean-François Perrault, chief economist with Bank of Nova Scotia.

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Bank of Montreal chief economist Douglas Porter said it is unlikely that Wednesday’s rate hike will have any significant impact on a housing market with as much momentum as Canada’s. “I suspect rate hikes would really begin to bite when we get to 100 basis points,” he said.

The rate was raised as home prices continue to hit new record highs month after month. In the Toronto region, the country’s largest real estate market, the typical home price jumped $354,000 or 36 per cent to $1,340,000 in the 12 months to February, according to the local real estate board. In the Vancouver region, the typical home price was up 21 per cent year-over-year to $1,313,400, according to the local board.

In the Toronto region, the country’s largest real estate market, the typical home price jumped $354,000 or 36 per cent to $1,340,000 in the 12 months to February, according to the local real estate board.GRAEME ROY/The Canadian Press

Since the COVID-19 pandemic started, home prices have climbed at a record pace, with homebuyers looking for roomy properties in the suburbs and smaller cities where home prices are somewhat cheaper.

Over the past two years, the typical price of a home in Canada is up 48 per cent to $836,300, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association’s home price index, with less populated areas, such as Cambridge in Ontario, Halifax and Chilliwack in B.C., unaccustomed to dealing with unrelenting competition.

“It’s very desperate here,” said Kelli Tynes-Harrington, realtor with Royal LePage Atlantic, who has sold homes in the Halifax area for nearly two decades.

Ms. Tynes-Harrington does not think an incremental increase in interest rates will deter buyers. She said for most of the pandemic, there have been multiple bids on every property. That kind of competition was unheard of prior to the start of the pandemic.

“There’s so many buyers out there that are frustrated with just the lack of inventory,” she said. “Many are just struggling to even find something.”

In announcing its decision to raise the overnight lending rate, the Bank of Canada pointed to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a major new source of uncertainty, in addition to continuing problems caused by the pandemic. However, with the Canadian economy continuing to grow and inflation soaring well above the central bank’s target of 2 per cent, the bank’s governing council said it expects interest rates will need to rise further.

The central bank did not indicate when it would raise rates again. It mentioned housing only once in its Wednesday press release, saying “activity is more elevated, adding further pressure to house prices.”

Houses on Squamish Nation land in North Vancouver. In the Vancouver region, the typical home price was up 21 per cent year-over-year to $1,313,400, according to the local board.DARRYL DYCK/The Canadian Press

Scotiabank’s chief economist Mr. Perrault said “it isn’t inconceivable that a first rate hike might actually add to pressures in the market as homebuyers rush into buying ahead of even higher interest rates down the line.”

Frances Hinojosa, mortgage broker and president of Tribe Financial Group, agreed, saying Wednesday’s rate hike will likely have a “psychological impact” and “cause buyers to rush into the market.”

The rapid rise in home prices has motivated would-be buyers to quickly make offers for fear of getting priced out of the market. Now, prospective buyers are racing to make their purchase before mortgages get more expensive. That was the case for Sarah Grant and her husband. For most of last year, they were looking to buy a bigger property in Toronto for their family of four.

Mortgage Rundown: The countdown begins to rising variable rates

Ms. Grant said they felt pressure to buy before interest rates increased and ended up forgoing Toronto and buying a house in Kelowna, B.C., without viewing the property in person. “It was definitely one factor that was on our mind when we acted quickly,” she said.

Although fixed mortgage rates are higher than they were last year, they are still near historic lows. Wednesday’s change will not affect homeowners who are already locked into a fixed-rate mortgage. If a borrower has a variable-rate mortgage, which is typically pegged to the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate, a higher share of their payments will go toward paying interest instead of the principal.

Within hours of the announcement, most of the country’s largest banks raised their prime lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.7 per cent, effective Thursday. The higher prime rate will bump up borrowing costs on variable-rate mortgages, home equity lines of credit and other lines of credit.

The last time the Bank of Canada embarked on a series of rate increases was after the 2016 real estate boom in Toronto and Vancouver. Over the subsequent two years, the central bank raised the overnight rate five times to 1.75 per cent from 0.75 per cent. The higher borrowing costs, combined with tougher mortgage qualification rules and foreign buyer taxes, helped to calm the market frenzy in Toronto and Vancouver.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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