After nearly a month of decline, COVID-19 infections around the world have started to creep up again. New cases have shot up by eight per cent globally compared to the previous week, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). However, experts are not sure Canada will see another wave even with loosened public health measures.
“WHO looks at global numbers,” infectious disease specialist Dr. Gerald Evans told Global News in an interview Wednesday. “So, they’re going to be skewed by places like China, where numbers have increased.”
The increase of COVID cases around the world is caused by a combination of factors, including the highly transmissible Omicron variant and its cousin the BA.2 sub-variant, and the lifting of public health and social measures, according to the WHO.
“Western Europe is probably a better area for us to look at when we think to ourselves what could happen to us this spring,” said Evans. “They’re a little bit ahead of what we’ve been doing here in Canada … because of those two factors: a more transmissible variant and a reduction in public health measures.”
He explained that the BA.2 sub-variant is more transmissible and is more common in western Canada where public health restrictions have been lifted. There could be an increase in cases in Canada as seen in Europe following their reduction of public health measures.
“Is that going to be a wave? That’s the part that’s a little more difficult to be certain about. It has a lot to do with whether Canadians will completely abandon all the public health measures,” Evans said.
2:30 Ford Government remains confident in removing mask rules despite rising BA.2 cases
Ford Government remains confident in removing mask rules despite rising BA.2 cases
The increase in COVID-19 cases has led to lockdowns in Asia. China’s Jilin province is battling to contain an outbreak.
Canada’s daily COVID-19 cases have fallen since the record-setting fifth wave fuelled by the highly transmissible Omicron variant, but have plateaued at a level higher than seen before in the two-year-long pandemic.
As of March 16, the seven-day average of daily lab-confirmed cases sits a little above 5,800, much lower than the record high of over 45,000 daily cases set on Jan. 7.
Canada’s chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam and her provincial counterparts have said those confirmed cases are likely an undercount of the true number of cases, which could be up to 10 times higher. Many parts of the country no longer provide laboratory tests for most people after capacity was overwhelmed by the spread of Omicron.
The number of Canadians seeking treatment in hospital for COVID-19 also sat at 3,915 on Wednesday, about a third of the record 10,800 patients seen in January. The number includes about 459 people who are being treated for COVID-19 in intensive care units.
The country is currently seeing an average of 52 deaths per day, down from the near-record average seen late last month, which was over 100.
Could Canada see another lockdown?
Dr. Sumon Chakrabarti, an infectious diseases physician with Trillium Health Partners, said he’s been hearing a lot of experts say increased case numbers are because of loosened restrictions, but that’s only part of the equation, he says.
“We should remember that in temperate climates, you occasionally see a small bump in respiratory infections near the end of the winter. We certainly saw that (during) multiple years of influenza,” said Chakrabarti.
He also said the rise of cases doesn’t necessarily mean that Canadians will need to go back into lockdown or keep the mask mandate.
“I think the important thing for us to remember is that whereas previously mask-wearing was the only tool that we had … two years later, we have in Canada at least greater than 90 per cent of people protected by vaccines. And most importantly, if you look at the highest-risk adults over the age of 60, (the vaccination rate is) over 95 percent, so it’s a very different situation,” Chakrabarti explained.
“If you’re going to have a bit of a bump, you want that to happen as far away from the start of winter as possible. In the springtime … the impact on the health system is going to be much less,” said Chakrabarti. “We have to remember that what we are trying to do at this point is prevent hospitalization.”
2:14 Where have past variants of concern gone?
Where have past variants of concern gone? – Feb 24, 2022
Evans,on the other hand, said he believes that Canada should keep the mask mandate and capacity limits as other parts of the world report a rise in COVID-19 cases.
“I think it’s just been rushed a little bit too quickly … If we’re not quick to reduce restrictions … we could probably keep that BA.2 wave down a little bit,” said Evans.
“But it’s that unfortunate mixture of trying to get rid of those public health measures at the same time this sub-lineage pops up … that’s a that’s going to be really tough,” he added.
Health Minister Jean-Yves Duclos said on Thursday that after two years of following individual public health measures, “people in Canada know what to do to keep themselves and each other safe.”
“As I’ve mentioned in the past, we are in a much better position today than in 2020,” said Duclos.
He said that high vaccination rates and public health measures have pushed Canada through the peak of the Omicron wave.
1:40 Canada to drop testing rules for incoming vaccinated travelers: sources
Canada to drop testing rules for incoming vaccinated travelers: sources
“We have more tools, like widely available rapid tests, and a range of new treatments that can help keep some patients from getting seriously ill,” said Duclos. “I think it’s fair to say that we are now entering into a transition phase of this pandemic.”
As the weather warms up and people spend more time outside, Duclos said he expects to see transmission decline in the coming months, but Canadians have to be prepared for a “waning of collective and individual immunity.”
“Of course, the Government of Canada will also keep monitoring for new variants through our robust surveillance system, and adjust public measures as necessary,” he added.
What China’s lockdown means for Canada?
Evans and Chakrabarti stressed that the situation in China and the way it deals with outbreaks is very different than in Canada and other countries. So, just because parts of China have gone to lockdown doesn’t mean that other places will too, and it shouldn’t cause people to be anxious.
“China has what it’s called a COVID zero sort of policy, and that (means imposing) very stringent widespread lockdowns whenever they see a rise in cases,” said Evans.
“The result of that is that it’s left a lot of their population without ever having had COVID, which is a good thing until you get into an era like Omicron, where Omicron is so highly transmissible.”
He also said that in China, older people have lower vaccination rates compared to younger people — quite the opposite from Canada and in parts of the western world.
“I think right now China is having their Omicron wave, which is similar to what we saw here in Canada in December. It’s a very different situation there,” said Chakrabarti.
1:53 France eases masking measures, China sees infection spike
France eases masking measures, China sees infection spike
OTTAWA – The New Democrats confirmed Thursday they won’t help Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives topple the government next week, and intend to join the Bloc Québécois in blocking the Tories’ non-confidence motion.
The planned votes from the Bloc and the New Democrats eliminate the possibility of a snap election, buying the Liberals more time to govern after a raucous start to the fall sitting of Parliament.
Poilievre issued a challenge to NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh earlier this week when he announced he will put forward a motion that simply states that the House has no confidence in the government or the prime minister.
If it were to pass, it would likely mean Canadians would be heading to the polls, but Singh said Thursday he’s not going to let Poilievre tell him what to do.
Voting against the Conservative motion doesn’t mean the NDP support the Liberals, said Singh, who pulled out of his political pact with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a few weeks ago.
“I stand by my words, Trudeau has let you down,” Singh said in the foyer outside of the House of Commons Thursday.
“Trudeau has let you down and does not deserve another chance.”
Canadians will have to make that choice at the ballot box, Singh said, but he will make a decision about whether to help trigger that election on a vote-by-vote basis in the House.
The Conservatives mocked the NDP during Question Period for saying they had “ripped up” the deal to support the Liberals, despite plans to vote to keep them in power.
Poilievre accused Singh of pretending to pull out of the deal to sway voters in a federal byelection in Winnipeg, where the NDP was defending its long-held seat against the Conservatives.
“Once the votes were counted, he betrayed them again. He’s a fake, a phoney and fraud. How can anyone ever believe what the sellout NDP leader says in the future?” Poilievre said during Question Period Thursday afternoon.
At some point after those comments, Singh stepped out from behind his desk in the House and a two-minute shouting match ensued between the two leaders and their MPs before the Speaker intervened.
Outside the House, Poilievre said he plans to put forward another non-confidence motion at the next opportunity.
“We want a carbon-tax election as soon as possible, so that we can axe Trudeau’s tax before he quadruples it to 61 cents a litre,” he said.
Liberal House leader Karina Gould says there is much work the government still needs to do, and that Singh has realized the consequences of potentially bringing down the government. She refused to take questions about whether her government will negotiate with opposition parties to ensure their support in future confidence motions.
Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet hasn’t ruled out voting no-confidence in the government the next time a motion is tabled.
“I never support Liberals. Help me God, I go against the Conservatives on a vote that is only about Pierre Poilievre and his huge ambition for himself,” Blanchet said Thursday.
“I support the interests of Quebecers, if those interests are also good for Canadians.”
A Bloc bill to increase pension cheques for seniors aged 65 to 74 is now at “the very centre of the survival of this government,” he said.
The Bloc needs a recommendation from a government minister to OK the cost and get the bill through the House.
The Bloc also wants to see more protections for supply management in the food sector in Canada and Quebec.
If the Liberals can’t deliver on those two things, they will fall, Blanchet said.
“This is what we call power,” he said.
Treasury Board President Anita Anand wouldn’t say whether the government would be willing to swallow the financial implications of the Bloc’s demands.
“We are focused at Treasury Board on ensuring prudent fiscal management,” she said Thursday.
“And at this time, our immediate focus is implementing the measures in budget 2024 that were announced earlier this year.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
OTTAWA – Treasury Board President Anita Anand has been sworn in as federal transport minister at a ceremony at Rideau Hall, taking over a portfolio left vacant after Pablo Rodriguez resigned from cabinet and the Liberal caucus on Thursday.
Anand thanked Rodriguez for his contributions to the government and the country, saying she’s grateful for his guidance and friendship.
She sidestepped a question about the message it sends to have him leave the federal Liberal fold.
“That is a decision that he made independently, and I wish him well,” she said.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was not present for the swearing-in ceremony, nor were any other members of the Liberal government.
The shakeup in cabinet comes just days after the Liberals lost a key seat in a Montreal byelection to the Bloc Québécois and amid renewed calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down and make way for a new leader.
Anand said she is not actively seeking leadership of the party, saying she is focused on her roles as minister and as MP.
“My view is that we are a team, and we are a team that has to keep delivering for our country,” she said.
The minority Liberal government is in a more challenging position in the House of Commons after the NDP ended a supply-and-confidence deal that provided parliamentary stability for more than two years.
Non-confidence votes are guaranteed to come from the Opposition Conservatives, who are eager to bring the government down.
On Thursday morning, Rodriguez made a symbolic walk over the Alexandra Bridge from Parliament Hill to Gatineau, Que., where he formally announced his plans to run for the Quebec Liberal party leadership.
He said he will now sit as an Independent member of Parliament, which will allow him to focus on his own priorities.
“I was defending the priorities of the government, and I did it in a very loyal way,” he said.
“It’s normal and it’s what I had to do. But now it’s more about my vision, the vision of the team that I’m building.”
Rodriguez said he will stay on as an MP until the Quebec Liberal leadership campaign officially launches in January.
He said that will “avoid a costly byelection a few weeks, or months, before a general election.”
The next federal election must be held by October 2025.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said he will try to topple the government sooner than that, beginning with a non-confidence motion that is set to be debated Sept. 24 and voted on Sept. 25.
Poilievre has called on the NDP and the Bloc Québécois to support him, but both Jagmeet Singh and Yves-François Blanchet have said they will not support the Conservatives.
Rodriguez said he doesn’t want a federal election right away and will vote against the non-confidence motion.
As for how he would vote on other matters before the House of Commons, “it would depend on the votes.”
Public Services and Procurement Minister Jean-Yves Duclos will become the government’s new Quebec lieutenant, a non-cabinet role Rodriguez held since 2019.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees and Dylan Robertson
