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Canada's Conservatives hammer Trudeau on slowing economy ahead of vote – Reuters

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A construction crane is seen above Brookfield’s Bay Adelaide North, the third office tower to be constructed at their Bay Adelaide Centre complex property in Toronto, Ontario, Canada April 14, 2021. Picture taken April 14, 2021. REUTERS/Chris Helgren

OTTAWA, Aug 31 (Reuters) – Canada’s Conservatives hammered Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Tuesday after data showed that the country’s economy unexpectedly shrank in the second quarter and again in July, putting the economy at the center of debate three weeks ahead of a national election.

Canada is the only Group of Seven country to record a deceleration in the second quarter, according to an OECD report.

“Canada’s economy is getting worse, not better,” Conservative leader Erin O’Toole said from his Ottawa headquarters. “Under Justin Trudeau we are heading further down the road of recession, not the road to recovery.”

Canada’s economy shrank 1.1% in the second quarter on an annualized basis, missing analyst expectations of a gain of 2.5%, Statistics Canada data showed. A preliminary estimate for July showed a contraction of 0.4%, while June GDP rose 0.7%, in line with expectations.

With the July decline, economic activity remains about 2% below pre-pandemic levels, Statscan said.

“It’s a jaw-dropper,” said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, adding: “It will probably be an uncomfortable question for the government today but I don’t think the GDP number will have a huge impact on the elections.”

Trudeau’s Liberals are currently tied with the Conservatives at 33% ahead of the Sept 20 federal election, according a new Nanos Research poll. The left-leaning New Democrats have 19%.

Polls have shown that the economy is one of the top concerns of Canadians heading into the vote.

Statscan said the second-quarter drop was mostly driven by declines in home sales and exports. Housing investment boomed during the pandemic, helping drive the economic rebound from the crisis, but the market has cooled from its March peak.

The likely contraction in July, which comes even as most provinces loosened COVID-19 restrictions, was driven by decreases in manufacturing, construction and retail trade, said Statscan. The outlook has been further clouded by a surge in new COVID-19 infections, mostly among the unvaccinated.

Economists said the GDP miss could impact the timing of Bank of Canada policy tightening, though hot inflation and a strong August could also sway the picture.

The central bank last month said it expected Canada’s economy to gain 2.0% in the second quarter, with growth picking up “strongly” in the third quarter as more services reopened. It will put out new forecasts in October.

“It comes in weaker than their expectations,” said Jimmy Jean, chief economist at Desjardins Group. “At the same time, we also have to recognize that there will be a major rebound in the third quarter. So all hope is not lost.”

The Canadian dollar was trading 0.2% lower at 1.2620 to the greenback, or 79.24 U.S. cents.

Additional reporting by Fergal Smith in Toronto and Shariq Khan; Editing by Jonathan Oatis, Kevin Liffey and Mark Porter

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Energy stocks help lift S&P/TSX composite, U.S. stock markets also up

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was higher in late-morning trading, helped by strength in energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also moved up.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 34.91 points at 23,736.98.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.05 points at 41,800.13. The S&P 500 index was up 28.38 points at 5,661.47, while the Nasdaq composite was up 133.17 points at 17,725.30.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.56 cents US compared with 73.57 cents US on Monday.

The November crude oil contract was up 68 cents at US$69.70 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up three cents at US$2.40 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$7.80 at US$2,601.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.28 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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Canada’s inflation rate hits 2% target, reaches lowest level in more than three years

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OTTAWA – Canada’s inflation rate fell to two per cent last month, finally hitting the Bank of Canada’s target after a tumultuous battle with skyrocketing price growth.

The annual inflation rate fell from 2.5 per cent in July to reach the lowest level since February 2021.

Statistics Canada’s consumer price index report on Tuesday attributed the slowdown in part to lower gasoline prices.

Clothing and footwear prices also decreased on a month-over-month basis, marking the first decline in the month of August since 1971 as retailers offered larger discounts to entice shoppers amid slowing demand.

The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures of inflation, which strip out volatility in prices, also edged down in August.

The marked slowdown in price growth last month was steeper than the 2.1 per cent annual increase forecasters were expecting ahead of Tuesday’s release and will likely spark speculation of a larger interest rate cut next month from the Bank of Canada.

“Inflation remains unthreatening and the Bank of Canada should now focus on trying to stimulate the economy and halting the upward climb in the unemployment rate,” wrote CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham.

Benjamin Reitzes, managing director of Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO, said Tuesday’s figures “tilt the scales” slightly in favour of more aggressive cuts, though he noted the Bank of Canada will have one more inflation reading before its October rate announcement.

“If we get another big downside surprise, calls for a 50 basis-point cut will only grow louder,” wrote Reitzes in a client note.

The central bank began rapidly hiking interest rates in March 2022 in response to runaway inflation, which peaked at a whopping 8.1 per cent that summer.

The central bank increased its key lending rate to five per cent and held it at that level until June 2024, when it delivered its first rate cut in four years.

A combination of recovered global supply chains and high interest rates have helped cool price growth in Canada and around the world.

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem recently signalled that the central bank is ready to increase the size of its interest rate cuts, if inflation or the economy slow by more than expected.

Its key lending rate currently stands at 4.25 per cent.

CIBC is forecasting the central bank will cut its key rate by two percentage points between now and the middle of next year.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is also expected on Wednesday to deliver its first interest rate cut in four years.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Federal money and sales taxes help pump up New Brunswick budget surplus

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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.

Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.

The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.

Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.

Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.

Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.

Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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