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Canada’s Drop In GDP Made The Economy Even More Dependent On Real Estate – Better Dwelling

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Canada’s real estate industry has seen a smaller impact than the general economy during the pandemic. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows residential investment fell in Q2 2020. The drop was smaller than the one GDP made though, meaning the economic dependency on real estate grew. At least for the next few months.

Residential Investment

Residential investment is residential real estate’s direct contribution to the economy. It includes the construction of new houses, major renovation, and ownership transfers, but it’s important to remember it’s not a comprehensive measure. For instance, renovations don’t cover superficial renos or routine maintenance. Roofs are in, but painting the baby’s room isn’t. Ownership transfer costs include things like agent commissions and lawyer fees. Real estate is a much bigger contributor to the economy, and this is just the most direct measure. For example, insurance and finance are also largely dependent on real estate, but are independent segments.

Drops in residential investment are considered red flags for the economy. Research from Norway’s central bank notes drops in residential investment precedes a recession. Countries with high rates of ownership, like Canada, tend to have the strongest link. Countries with low rates of ownership, like Japan, have the weakest link. Often people think a slowdown in new building is just the end to an overheated real estate market. In reality, it’s a sign of other issues throttling the investment into this area.

Canadian Residential Investment Drops Over 11%

Residential investment made a small increase on the quarter, but is down from last year. The total estimate is $39.24 billion in Q2 2020, up 1.87% from the previous quarter. This is a 11.36% decline compared to the same quarter last year. While the decline is large, it was smaller than the one gross domestic product (GDP) made.

Canadian Residential Investment

The amount spent on residential stuctures in Canada.

Source: Stat Can, Better Dwelling.

GDP made a sharp (and expected) decline last quarter. The number came in at $484 billion unadjusted in Q2 2020, down 10.52% from the previous quarter. This represents a decline of 14.70% compared to the same quarter last year. Since the drop for GDP in general was larger than the decline for residential investment, the economy became more dependent on real estate.

Residential Investment As A Percent of GDP Increased To 7.48%

Residential investment as a percent of GDP is still trending lower, but it’s significantly higher than last year. Residential investment as a percent of GDP reached 7.48% in Q2 2020, up from 7.25% last year. While it’s a significant climb, it’s still much lower than the record high of 8.69% hit in Q2 2016. Short-term it’s an increase, but on a longer horizon there’s still a downtrend.

Residential Investment As A Percent of GDP

The amount of Canadian residential investment, expressed as a percent of GDP.

Source: Stat Can, Better Dwelling.

Canadian residential investment is lower in dollar terms, but not dropping nearly as fast as GDP. This is printing a short-term increase in the dependency ratio. However, many of the factors that dragged GDP lower in Q2 are being considered temporary. As the economy returns to normal, the ratio of residential investment as a percent of GDP should continue its downtrend. In the meantime however, the country is getting a little more dependent on real estate.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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