Canada's economic growth lags expectations, but unlikely to deter another big BoC rate hike - The Globe and Mail | Canada News Media
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Canada's economic growth lags expectations, but unlikely to deter another big BoC rate hike – The Globe and Mail

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Canada’s economic growth wasn’t as strong as expected in the second quarter and appears to have decelerated in July, signs that rising interest rates are cooling economic activity sooner than many forecasters anticipated.

Softening growth, however, is unlikely to deter the Bank of Canada from another oversized interest rate hike when it makes its monetary-policy decision next week, economists said.

Canada’s economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.3 per cent in the second quarter, Statistics Canada reported Wednesday, driven by strong consumer spending and business investment in inventories.

This was moderated by a fall in residential property spending and an increase in imports relative to exports, which pushed the quarterly GDP result below the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 4-per-cent annualized growth and the Bay Street consensus of 4.4-per-cent growth.

Preliminary estimates for July show that GDP declined by 0.1 per cent that month. That suggests third-quarter growth is on track to undershoot the central bank’s estimate of 2 per cent, on an annualized basis, and could mark a turning point for the Canadian economy after a period of heightened economic activity that accompanied the lifting of pandemic-related restrictions.

“While GDP growth was solid in Q2 as a whole, it was weaker than anticipated and a slow end to the quarter, plus soft start to Q3 suggest that the economy is reacting quicker to rising interest rates than the Bank of Canada may have been anticipating,” Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce economist Andrew Grantham said in a note to clients.

The central bank has increased interest rates at four consecutive meetings since March, including a full percentage point rate hike in July, the largest single move since 1998. This campaign to raise borrowing costs is explicitly aimed at slowing down economic activity in an effort to tame runaway inflation.

While rate increases can take six to eight quarters to have a full impact, Wednesday’s GDP data show that higher borrowing costs are already squeezing rate-sensitive sectors like housing. Residential property spending contracted around 28 per cent on an annualized basis in the quarter.

That’s unlikely to push the Bank of Canada off course, private-sector economists argue. Governor Tiff Macklem signalled this month that he intends to keep raising interest rates into what economists call “restrictive territory,” where borrowing costs act as a brake on economic activity.

Financial markets are pricing in a 75-basis-point rate hike for the Sept. 7 rate decision, while Bay Street forecasters suggest that increases of 50, 75 or 100 basis points are all on the table for next week. (A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.)

“Inflation remains priority 1, 2, 3, and 4 for the BoC, so we don’t think today’s print will change the bank’s thinking heading into the September interest rate announcement (particularly given the strength in household spending),” Toronto-Dominion Bank rate strategists Andrew Kelvin, Robert Both and Chris Whelan wrote in a note to clients.

“We continue to look for a 75bp rate hike next week, but the softer hand-off into Q3 hints at trouble ahead,” they wrote. Looking further ahead, they suggested that the central bank may need to slow its pace of rate hikes in October, and could opt for a 25-basis-point rate hike at that point.

Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Capital Markets, said that a 50-basis-point rate hike next week is now more likely.

“With the Bank of Canada already having raised rates 100bps in July, central bankers might be willing slow the pace of hikes ahead of their peers by only pushing rates up another 50bps next week. It’s possible that monetary policymakers move more than that, but there are clearly cracks beginning to form in the foundation of the economy,” he wrote in a note to clients.

While growth was weaker than expected, Canada continues to outperform peer countries, including the United States where economic activity contracted in the second quarter.

Canadian consumer spending remained robust as people bought new clothing and shoes for return to office work, and splurged on travel, restaurants and other services that have reopened as pandemic restrictions have lifted.

Business spending on inventories also boosted growth in the quarter, with a particularly notable jump in farm inventories.

“Increased production of agricultural products in the second quarter, notably wheat and canola, resulted in the largest increase in farm inventory investments since 1961, the year when quarterly data were first recorded,” Statscan said.

This was offset by a decline in residential property spending and consumer spending on durable goods. Net trade also weighed on GDP in the quarter, with a rise in imports exceeding exports.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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