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Canada’s Economy Has Never Been More Dependent On Real Estate

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Canada’s economy just became even more dependent on real estate. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows residential investment soared to a record high in Q3 2020. The rate it’s grown over the past few months has far outpaced the economy. Consequently, residential investment is now the biggest percent of GDP it has ever been.

Residential Investment

Residential investment is real estate’s direct contribution to GDP. In Canada, it includes construction, renovation, and ownership transfer fees. It’s a big part of residential real estate’s contribution to GDP, but it’s missing some stuff. For instance, renovation is limited to major renovations. Superficial stuff like painting is excluded, despite being a big part of the economy. Adjacent industries are also in their own category, like insurance and finances.

Canadian Residential Investment Rises Over 18%

In current dollars, the amount dedicated to residential investment is soaring. The total reached $54.89 billion in Q3, up 39.34% from the previous quarter. This represents an increase of 18.03% compared to the same quarter last year. In dollar terms, this is the biggest number ever, with a huge rate of growth.

Canadian Residential Investment

The amount spent on residential stuctures in Canada. Source: Stat Can, Better Dwelling.

The rate of growth is actually the highest level in years. Following the big dip in Q2 2020, the rate made a big increase as most investment was just pushed into the next quarter. The rate marks a general trend of increases starting in the end of 2019, with the first full pandemic quarter being a notable exception. This is the largest rate of growth since 2010, which is a long time ago.

Canadian Residential Investment Reached 9.43% of GDP

Residential investment has recovered much faster than other segments of GDP. Residential investment represents 9.43% of GDP in Q3 2020, up from 7.71% during the same quarter last year. This is not only the highest rate seen in at least 60 years, but it’s also very high for any country. For context, the U.S. residential investment peaked at 6.7% in 2006 during the housing bubble. The current rate in the U.S. is just 4.3%, having also sharply accelerated faster than GDP in the third quarter. Just not nearly as much as Canada.

Residential Investment As A Percent of GDP

The amount of Canadian residential investment, expressed as a percent of GDP. Source: Stat Can, Better Dwelling.

Residential investment more than likely saw growth delayed in Q2. If that’s the case, growth would slow down in subsequent quarters as pent-up demand catches up. While we wait to see how that plays out, it’s important to remember it was already a high percentage of GDP before the pandemic.

Source: – Better Dwelling

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Mortgage rule changes will help spark demand, but supply is ‘core’ issue: economist

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TORONTO – One expert predicts Ottawa‘s changes to mortgage rules will help spur demand among potential homebuyers but says policies aimed at driving new supply are needed to address the “core issues” facing the market.

The federal government’s changes, set to come into force mid-December, include a higher price cap for insured mortgages to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal calls it a “significant” move likely to accelerate the recovery of the housing market, a process already underway as interest rates have begun to fall.

However, he says in a note that policymakers should aim to “prevent that from becoming too much of a good thing” through policies geared toward the supply side.

Tal says the main issue is the lack of supply available to respond to Canada’s rapidly increasing population, particularly in major cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17,2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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National housing market in ‘holding pattern’ as buyers patient for lower rates: CREA

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OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.

The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.

On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.

CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”

The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.

The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Two Quebec real estate brokers suspended for using fake bids to drive up prices

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MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.

Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.

She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.

The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.

One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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