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Canada’s economy is still struggling to grow, fresh GDP data shows

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Canada’s economy is still struggling to grow heading into the end of the year after contracting in the third quarter of 2023, according to Statistics Canada.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) for October was “essentially unchanged” for a third consecutive month, the agency said Friday.

Canada’s manufacturing sector saw its fourth decline over five months in October, with contractions in wholesale trade as well. Increased mining activity and retail trade figures helped to offset GDP declines elsewhere, StatCan said.

Strike activity on the St. Lawrence Seaway drove a 0.2 per cent decline in the transportation and warehousing sector in October, according to the agency. Water transportation saw its first drop since the port strikes in British Columbia in July.

StatCan had originally expected slight GDP growth of 0.2 per cent for October in its early estimates. September’s GDP results were also revised down to flat from 0.1 per cent growth.

The initial forecast for November GDP shows the economy might have rebounded somewhat with 0.1 per cent growth, though those figures will be updated in January.

Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins, in a note said that the uptick in November wasn’t enough to suggest that the economy was turning a corner.

“As more households and businesses feel the impacts of higher interest rates in 2024, we expect Canada to fall into at least a mild recession. So while the economy is sputtering now, it might begin rolling backwards early in the new year,” Mendes added.

Canada’s economic output declined 1.1 per cent on an annualized basis in the third quarter of the year, a sharper drop than most economists had expected.

TD Bank economist Marc Ercolao wrote in a note that Friday’s GDP print has growth tracking below one per cent annualized for the fourth quarter of the year, which is roughly in line with the Bank of Canada’s estimates for the quarter.

If the Canadian economy manages to eke out modest growth in the fourth quarter, it will avoid a technical recession in 2023. Some forecasters expect a short, shallow recession could hit in early 2024.

The Bank of Canada has been looking for signs of weakness in the Canadian economy as evidence that spending demand will ease and tamp down inflation. Annual inflation came in at 3.1 per cent in November, higher than most economists expected for the month but still five percentage points down from the recent peaks seen in June 2022.

RBC’s assistant chief economist Nathan Janzen said in a note to clients Friday that signs of a slowing economy and easing in the labour market should “boost confidence” that price growth should continue to cool back to the central bank’s two per cent target.

Additional interest rate hikes are therefore “increasingly unlikely,” Janzen said, forecasting rate cuts instead to begin in the second quarter of 2024.

Following Friday’s data, Reuters said money markets still see a roughly 25 per cent chance of a rate cut in January and a 50 per cent chance of a move in March. A cut is fully discounted for April.

Despite a cooling economy, Ercolao said he expects the central bank will “remain vigilant and not declare victory too early.”

“But all said, the Bank should feel a sense of comfort heading into the new year,” he said.

— with files from Reuters

 

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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