Canada's economy sees record quarterly slump; June gains suggest early COVID-19 efforts 'paying off' - The Globe and Mail | Canada News Media
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Canada's economy sees record quarterly slump; June gains suggest early COVID-19 efforts 'paying off' – The Globe and Mail

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The Canadian economy suffered its biggest quarterly slump on record in the second quarter as pandemic-related shutdowns slowed the country to a crawl, but a dramatic rebound in June and July indicates that a recovery is well under way.

Statistics Canada reported Friday that real gross domestic product (GDP) plunged 11.5 per cent in the three months ended June 30 – a period that encompassed the worst of the lockdowns in Canada and elsewhere aimed at containing the COVID-19 pandemic. It was the deepest single-quarter fall since the national statistical agency began publishing quarterly data in 1961.

Expressed on an annualized basis – a common way of quantifying quarterly GDP changes in normal times – the decline was 38.7 per cent. That was more severe than 31.7 per cent reported in the United States, reflecting Canada’s earlier and generally stricter lockdowns.

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But while the depth of Canada’s second-quarter economic loss is sobering, it was actually toward the low end of expectations among economists. The return of activity proved stronger than initially anticipated as the pandemic containment restrictions lifted toward the end of the quarter.

Statscan said that real GDP surged 6.5 per cent in June from May – itself a one-month record, and considerably higher than the agency’s preliminary estimate of 5 per cent published several weeks ago. This was on top of an upwardly revised 4.8-per-cent rebound in May, when the lockdowns first began to ease, up from the previously reported 4.5 per cent.

Statscan also issued a preliminary estimate for July of another 3-per-cent rise, as the recovery continued. In all, real GDP is up about 15 per cent from its low point in April – although the July estimate leaves it still about 6 per cent below its precrisis level in February.

While the data illustrate that the economy has re-emerged quickly from the COVID-19 lockdowns, activity in some sectors continues to be weighed down by restrictions, profound uncertainties and the effects of a deeply shaken global environment. Air transportation remained all but non-existent in June, down 94 per cent from February; other tourism services are still deeply hampered by restrictions and border closings. Restaurants and bars, despite a rebound, were still operating at 40-per-cent below their pre-COVID-19 levels in June. Output of petroleum, metal and forestry products remained far below normal, amid still-low prices and tepid global demand.

So while economists hailed the end of the lockdown-inflicted slump, they cautioned that further recovery in the months ahead will be more halting and uneven.

“At least it’s behind us now,” Toronto-Dominion Bank senior economist Brian DePratto said in a research note. “As significant as the damage was, it was largely contained to March and April.”

“June’s solid [rise] and positive developments since then … point to a strong, if partial, recovery in activity over the summer months,” he said. “Ultimately, however, partial means partial. Many sectors are going to continue struggling in the absence of a vaccine.”

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Nevertheless, economists said that at least the initial stage of the recovery, as it continues in the third quarter, suggests the economy may be on a somewhat better track for the rest of the year than they had anticipated.

“The upgrade to June’s big rise … and the solid July gain point to a mammoth [third-quarter] increase,” Bank of Montreal chief economist Douglas Porter said. The data were strong enough to convince Mr. Porter to upgrade his forecast GDP decline for 2020 as a whole, to a loss of 5.5 per cent from his previous 6 per cent.

“It’s not a big change, but finally seeing an upward revision is a big deal,” he said.

Canada’s second-quarter GDP decline was roughly in line with those experienced by the euro area countries, and was in the middle of the pack among the Group of Seven. Canadian losses were more severe than in the U.S. as well as Japan, which resisted widespread lockdown orders, and Germany, which acted swiftly on COVID-19 containment and began reopening sooner than many other countries. But Canada fared much better than Britain, where GDP crumbled by more than 20 per cent quarter-to-quarter, as authorities were initially slow to clamp down on containment, but ultimately had to keep stricter measures in place for more of the quarter.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce senior economist Royce Mendes said that Canada’s relatively aggressive pandemic containment response, compared with its U.S. neighbour, may have paved the way to a quicker recovery.

“Those actions appear to be paying off in spades in terms of the outlook. With new virus cases still at low levels, the economy is set to materially outperform the U.S. in the third quarter,” Mr. Mendes said in a research report.

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“That said, there are still significant risks on the horizon from a resurgence of the virus.”

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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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