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Canada's economy shrank at fastest pace on record in Q2 despite sharp bounceback in May and June – CBC.ca

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Canada’s economy shrank at the fastest pace on record in the second quarter, as consumer spending, business investment, imports and exports all dried up because of COVID-19.

Statistics Canada reported Friday that the country’s gross domestic product shrank by 11.5 per cent in the three-month period between April and June. That’s a 38.7 per cent pace of contraction for the year as a whole, far and away the steepest and fastest decline on records that date back to 1961.

At 11.5 per cent, the quarterly contraction was better than the 12 per cent that Statistics Canada had been forecasting, but still more than twice as bad as the lowest point hit in the financial crisis of 2009, when the worst three-month period for GDP came in at -4.7 per cent.

The numbers show in stark relief just how pronounced the slowdown caused by the sudden shock of COVID-19 was. But they also seem to suggest that a corner has been turned, and a rebound back up may be equally swift.

While the second quarter was the worst quarter for Canada’s GDP in almost 60 years, the numbers for June specifically make that month the biggest bounceback on record, too.

June’s GDP grew by 6.5 per cent from May’s level as provinces reopened their economies and consumers and businesses started spending again. But the economy has yet to fully bounce back to where it was. Even after June’s strong numbers, Canada’s GDP is still 9 per cent below where it was in February.

Retail sales have fully recovered, but key industries like manufacturing, construction and the energy sector have yet to get back to their pre-pandemic levels of output, the numbers released Friday show.

Preliminary data for July suggests the economy grew by another three per cent that month from June’s level, which is why economists are hopeful that the recovery that is underway will be enough to get the economy fully up and over the hole it fell into during the first wave of COVID-19.

“Because the weakness was entirely front-loaded — the economy was essentially shut in April — there are already plenty of signs that growth will snap back with purpose in Q3,” Bank of Montreal economist Doug Porter said of the numbers.

Brian DePratto at TD Bank was cautiously optimistic about the forecast. “As significant as the damage was, it was largely contained to March and April,” he said. “We may be through the worst of it, but it is still a long road to normal.”

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Economy Week Ahead: Factories, Consumer Spending and Employment – The Wall Street Journal

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The Grove retail and entertainment complex in Los Angeles drew shoppers as restrictions on gatherings have eased.

Photo: valerie macon/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The U.S. jobs report for September highlights a week of data that will show how economies are recovering from coronavirus-induced recessions and from continued disruptions related to the pandemic.

Wednesday

China’s official purchasing managers index for manufacturing is expected to show factory activity expanded for the seventh straight month in September. Economists said manufacturers have sped up production to avoid shipment delays in the event buyers experience a return of Covid-19 this winter.

Thursday

The
Bank of Japan’s
tankan corporate sentiment survey for the third quarter is expected to improve, reflecting a gradual resumption of economic activity. In the second quarter, sentiment among Japan’s large manufacturers deteriorated to its lowest level in 11 years and even a significant gain will still show that more companies say business conditions are unfavorable than favorable.

The number of workers covered by Europe’s furlough schemes has been declining since lockdowns were eased, but without causing a surge in the number of people without jobs. That trend likely continued in August, with figures released by the European Union’s statistics agency expected to show that the jobless rate rose to 8.1% from 7.9% in July.

U.S. jobless claims have steadied at an elevated level in recent weeks, suggesting a slowdown in the labor market’s recovery. Economists expect only a slight decline in the number of applications for unemployment benefits during the week ended Sept. 26, underscoring continued labor-market disruption and a historically high number of layoffs.

U.S. consumer spending is expected to post another monthly increase in August, though at a slower pace than recent months. That would likely reflect several trends, including a partial rebound in employment, the expiration of some federal government benefits tied to the pandemic, and strong demand for many goods alongside a weaker recovery in the service sector.

The Institute for Supply Management’s September purchasing managers index for manufacturing is likely to reflect a strong rebound in factory activity amid a slow global recovery and strong domestic demand for autos, electronics and other goods.

Friday

Consumer prices in the eurozone were lower than they were a year earlier in August, and figures to be released by the European Union’s statistics agency are expected to show that they remained so in September, increasing the likelihood that the European Central Bank will have to provide further stimulus if it is to meet its inflation target.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls are expected to post another strong gain and the unemployment rate to decline in September as more businesses recall workers. But the pace of hiring might have slowed and the overall level of employment will likely remain millions of jobs short of pre-pandemic levels, underscoring the severe damage from the pandemic and the long road to full recovery.

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Economy

Economy Week Ahead: Factories, Consumer Spending and Employment – Wall Street Journal

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on


The Grove retail and entertainment complex in Los Angeles drew shoppers as restrictions on gatherings have eased.

The Grove retail and entertainment complex in Los Angeles drew shoppers as restrictions on gatherings have eased.

Photo: valerie macon/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The U.S. jobs report for September highlights a week of data that will show how economies are recovering from coronavirus-induced recessions and from continued disruptions related to the pandemic.

Wednesday

China’s official purchasing managers index for manufacturing is expected to show factory activity expanded for the seventh straight month in September. Economists said manufacturers have sped up production to avoid shipment delays in the event buyers experience a return of Covid-19 this winter.

Thursday

The
Bank of Japan’s
tankan corporate sentiment survey for the third quarter is expected to improve, reflecting a gradual resumption of economic activity. In the second quarter, sentiment among Japan’s large manufacturers deteriorated to its lowest level in 11 years and even a significant gain will still show that more companies say business conditions are unfavorable than favorable.

The number of workers covered by Europe’s furlough schemes has been declining since lockdowns were eased, but without causing a surge in the number of people without jobs. That trend likely continued in August, with figures released by the European Union’s statistics agency expected to show that the jobless rate rose to 8.1% from 7.9% in July.

U.S. jobless claims have steadied at an elevated level in recent weeks, suggesting a slowdown in the labor market’s recovery. Economists expect only a slight decline in the number of applications for unemployment benefits during the week ended Sept. 26, underscoring continued labor-market disruption and a historically high number of layoffs.

U.S. consumer spending is expected to post another monthly increase in August, though at a slower pace than recent months. That would likely reflect several trends, including a partial rebound in employment, the expiration of some federal government benefits tied to the pandemic, and strong demand for many goods alongside a weaker recovery in the service sector.

The Institute for Supply Management’s September purchasing managers index for manufacturing is likely to reflect a strong rebound in factory activity amid a slow global recovery and strong domestic demand for autos, electronics and other goods.

Friday

Consumer prices in the eurozone were lower than they were a year earlier in August, and figures to be released by the European Union’s statistics agency are expected to show that they remained so in September, increasing the likelihood that the European Central Bank will have to provide further stimulus if it is to meet its inflation target.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls are expected to post another strong gain and the unemployment rate to decline in September as more businesses recall workers. But the pace of hiring might have slowed and the overall level of employment will likely remain millions of jobs short of pre-pandemic levels, underscoring the severe damage from the pandemic and the long road to full recovery.

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Trump says the economy is booming. He's right — but you don't feel it – CNN

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spent all last week testifying about the recovery on Capital Hill. His message: This is a tale of two economies, and one looks much stronger than the other.
On paper, the economy is roaring back even stronger than Powell and many economists expected.: More than 22 million jobs vanished in the spring lockdown, but 10.6 million jobs have since been added back.
And US gross domestic product — the broadest measure of the economy — is expected to rebound sharply after collapsing at a revised, annualized and seasonally adjusted rate of 31.7% between April and June. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model predicts GDP will jump at an annualized and seasonally-adjusted rate of 32% in the third quarter.
But that’s only one side of the story.

The other side

Many shops are still closed. About 11.5 million people who became unemployed because of Covid-19 remain out of work. And next week, unless Congress acts to provide more federal help, up to 100,000 airline industry jobs may be lost after the expiration of the CARES Act, which provided a $50 billion bailout to keep US airlines afloat.
Meanwhile, the sugar rush from Congress’s initial stimulus has worn off. Without more intervention we could be in for a long winter, especially as Covid-19 infections are rising again in some parts of the world.
“The risk going forward is that people are spending [now] because they have money in the bank even though they’re unemployed,” Powell said.
But once that money runs out, people might start scaling back their spending — a potential body blow to the recovery given consumer spending is the economy’s biggest engine.
Retail sales, one measure of how Americans’ spending behavior, have bounced back, recording their biggest monthly surge on record in May. But while the data has gotten better in the following months, the pace of improvement has slowed.

Fears of funds drying up

One possible reason is that unemployment benefits are now lower: a supplemental $600 in weekly jobless aid, part of Washington’s first stimulus bill, ran out at the end of July, and Congress hasn’t agreed on a new stimulus deal.
President Donald Trump signed an executive order to bolster benefits again, though by $400 a week this time, by diverting money from the Federal Emergency Management Agency. FEMA said that some states have already exhausted their allocated amounts.
Meanwhile, businesses using the Paycheck Protection Program to make it through the worst months of the crisis are worrying about funds drying up.
Problems like these underscore the importance of Congress taking action — and soon.
“I do think it’s likely that additional fiscal support will be needed,” Powell reiterated before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday, even though the recovery will ultimately depend on the path of the pandemic.
If Washington fails to agree on more stimulus the fourth quarter of this year, as well as 2021, could look much weaker than expected, said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC, in a note.
But now that lawmakers are more focused on approving a new US Supreme Court justice, worries are growing that no further stimulus will be passed until after the election.
Experts at Oxford Economics still believe a $1.5 trillion stimulus package could be agreed upon before the election on November 3.
But the window to get a deal done is closing fast and will require that rarest of commodities in Washington: compromise.

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