Canada's economy stalled again in October but likely up 0.1% in November | Canada News Media
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Canada’s economy stalled again in October but likely up 0.1% in November

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Canada’s economy was essentially unchanged for the third consecutive month in October, missing growth forecasts, but gross domestic product likely edged up in November, Statistics Canada data showed on Friday.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.2 per cent month-over-month rise. September’s GDP was downwardly revised to zero growth from an initial report of 0.1 per cent growth.

In a preliminary estimate for November, StatsCan said GDP was likely up 0.1 per cent, helped by increases in manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, and agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting.

Economic growth is stuttering under the impact of the Bank of Canada’s 10 rate hikes between March 2022 and July. GDP unexpectedly declined in the third quarter, and the central bank expects growth to remain weak for a few quarters.

Money markets still see a roughly 25 per cent chance of a rate cut in January and a 50 per cent chance of a move in March. A cut is fully discounted for April.

Slowdown in trade, manufacturing

Contraction in wholesale trade and manufacturing sectors weighed on the economy in October. It was the fourth decrease in the manufacturing sector in the past five months and the second consecutive decline in wholesale trade.

A strike along the St. Lawrence Seaway also impacted GDP, with the transportation and warehousing sector posting a 0.2 per cent decline. The declines offset gains in sectors including retail trade, which recorded its largest growth rate since January. Mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction also increased after two consecutive monthly declines.

Overall, Canada’s goods-producing sector was marginally down, while the services sector posted a 0.1 per cent increase.

The Bank of Canada has left its key policy rate on hold at a 22-year high of five per cent since July as it weighs whether rates are high enough to bring inflation back to a two per cent target.

 

2% inflation target in sight but ‘not there yet,’ BoC governor says

 

In his final speech of the year, Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem touched on what still needs to happen before the central bank considers cutting rates. ‘We still need to see more downward momentum in core inflation,’ he said.

Data this week showed Canada’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly held steady at 3.1 per cent in November. Inflation has cooled from a peak of 8.1 per cent last year, but has remained above the central bank’s target since early 2021.

 

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Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

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OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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