Canada's economy stalls, signalling hiring spree might not be enough to ward off recession - Financial Post | Canada News Media
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Canada's economy stalls, signalling hiring spree might not be enough to ward off recession – Financial Post

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Kevin Carmichael: A rare time when the Bank of Canada welcomes news that the economy has hit a rough patch

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Canada might be headed for a recession after all.

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Statistics Canada reported Feb. 28 that economic growth stalled in the fourth quarter, ending more than a year of strong post-pandemic increases in gross domestic product.

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“Canada’s economy ended 2022 with a thud,” James Orlando, an economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, said in a note.

The agency’s latest tally of economic output belies some of the strongest hiring on record, highlighted by an unemployment rate of five per cent in January and hourly wage growth in excess of four per cent. Those numbers caused some on Bay Street to second-guess predications that high inflation and a spike in interest rates would inevitably cause a downturn — and perhaps even a serious one.

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But there is more to GDP than consumption. Household spending increased 0.5 per cent from the third quarter, so all those new jobs were indeed creating demand, but not enough demand to offset reduced business spending on inventories, machinery and equipment and housing. Statistics Canada put the annual rate of growth over the final three months of 2022 at 0.0 per cent, compared with a rate of 2.3 per cent in the third quarter.

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It will be a rare time that the Bank of Canada welcomes news that the economy has entered a rough patch. Governor Tiff Macklem’s unprecedented series of interest rate increases last year were calibrated to quickly take the heat out of inflation without causing a sharp spike in unemployment. The central bank predicted higher interest rates would cause growth to come to a standstill for a period of time — a reasonable tradeoff, Macklem said, if that’s what’s required to get inflation back to two per cent.

The Bank of Canada predicted in January that GDP would grow at an annual rate of 0.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, so the economy appears to be unfolding as policymakers thought it would at the start of the year. That guarantees that Macklem will make good on his conditional promise to pause rate increases next week when he makes his next decision on where to set interest rates.

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“Today’s mostly soft report won’t be a disappointment to policymakers, as the Bank of Canada is openly attempting to take some steam out of the economy,” Douglas Porter, chief economist at Bank of Montreal, said in a note to his clients. “And zero-point-zero growth is about as little steam as one could ask for, without pushing things into an outright downturn.”

GDP — the combination of consumption, investment, government spending and the net contribution from international trade — grew 3.4 per cent from 2021, pushing the size of Canada’s economy to $2.2 trillion.


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A separate Statistics Canada report that measures monthly GDP by recording the value of goods and services produced by industry showed output dropped 0.1 per cent in December, while early information indicates that GDP increased 0.3 per cent in January, suggesting the economy was resisting toppling into a recession, although it’s too soon to make the conclusion. Higher debt-servicing costs represent a headwind for consumption, as will a slower pace of wage increases.

“Weaker demand is yet to come,” Claire Fan, an economist at Royal Bank, said in a note.

• Email: kcarmichael@postmedia.com | Twitter: carmichaelkevin

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Federal money and sales taxes help pump up New Brunswick budget surplus

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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.

Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.

The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.

Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.

Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.

Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.

Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

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OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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