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Canada’s economy starts to cool after rollicking start to 2023

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Some shoppers take a break in Toronto’s Eaton Centre, as others swirl about them. Canada’s economy is trending toward annualized growth of 2.5 per cent in the first quarter, but this growth rate could be difficult to replicate in the immediate future.Tibor Kolley/the Globe and Mail

After robust growth at the start of the year, the Canadian economy is losing momentum this spring as it contends with higher interest rates.

The jump in output in the early stages of 2023, which followed a stagnant fourth quarter of 2022, was thanks in part to unseasonably warm weather and strong labour demand. But the upturn appears to have been short-lived.

Real gross domestic product rose 0.1 per cent in February, after a 0.6-per-cent expansion in January, Statistics Canada said Friday in a report. In a preliminary estimate, the agency said GDP edged lower by 0.1 per cent in March.

All told, the economy is trending toward annualized growth of 2.5 per cent in the first quarter. This pace of growth is much stronger than forecasters had expected at this stage of the economic cycle, but it could be difficult to replicate in the immediate future.

The Bank of Canada has aggressively raised interest rates in a deliberate attempt to slow the economy and bring inflation under control. Its policy rate – now at 4.5 per cent, the highest since late 2007 – is expected to remain at elevated levels for some time.

Most private-sector forecasters believe Canada will enter a mild recession later this year as higher interest rates continue to weigh on economic activity. The outlook is further complicated by the fact that more than 100,000 federal public servants are on strike. The work stoppage has lasted into a second week, with little progress in negotiations.

“The weak end to the first quarter, combined with the negative but temporary impact of the public sector strike on Q2 GDP, increases the risk of a contraction in economic activity during the second quarter,” Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said in a note to clients.

“However, the Bank of Canada will look through that volatility, and focus instead on trying to get and keep inflation and inflation expectations under control. While a weakening economy should prevent policymakers pulling the trigger on another interest rate hike, we don’t see cuts forthcoming until early next year.”

Statscan divides the economy into 20 subsectors. In February, 12 of them had increases in GDP. The public sector – which includes education, health care and public administration – rose 0.2 per cent, for a 13th consecutive monthly increase. The strike puts that streak in jeopardy.

Output in the construction industry rose 0.3 per cent in February, matching the increase in finance and insurance.

By contrast, activity in wholesale trade fell 1.3 per cent during the month, while retail trade dropped by 0.5 per cent. According to Statscan’s estimates, those industries continued to decline in March, contributing to the overall contraction in output.

More than one year after the Bank of Canada started to raise interest rates, the economy has shown resilience. Companies are continuing to hire, and the unemployment rate (5 per cent) is just shy of a record low. Many households are continuing to spend freely, undeterred by lofty inflation and rising interest rates.

The Bank of Canada recently upgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 1.4 per cent from 1 per cent, to account for the early burst in activity.

But the central bank expects growth to be weak through the rest of the year. It can take time – 18 to 24 months – for rate hikes to fully transmit to the economy.

Bank of Canada officials considered raising interest rates this month, but ultimately chose to hold rates steady, according to a summary of deliberations that was published this week.

The annual inflation rate ebbed to 4.3 per cent in March, from a peak of more than 8 per cent in June, 2022. The central bank projects a further deceleration to around 3 per cent by the middle of the year.

Still, Bank of Canada officials have stressed that getting inflation back to their 2-per-cent target could prove challenging. Financial analysts have interpreted the bank’s recent communications as an indication that interest rates will not be lowered this year.

“Higher interest rates are slowing household spending, particularly on big-ticket items. As mortgages are renewed at higher rates, more households will feel the restraining effects of monetary policy,” Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem explained during a recent news conference.

“Business investment is also expected to soften in the year ahead, dampened by weaker demand for Canadian exports and higher financing costs,” he said. “Taking these forces into consideration, we expect Canadian GDP growth to be weak for the rest of this year before beginning to pick up gradually through 2024 and through 2025.”

 

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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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