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Canada's economy to slow with new limits on temporary migrants – BNN Bloomberg

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Canada’s planned reduction in temporary residents is set to add downward pressure to inflation and economic growth in the coming months, and the policy will likely halve its population growth rate when it takes full effect next year, economists say.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government plans to reduce the number of temporary immigrants by 20 per cent over the next three years, bringing the level down to 5 per cent of the population from 6.2 per cent currently. Starting in May, the government will make it harder for firms to rely on temporary foreign workers.

With one of the world’s fastest rates of population growth, the country has benefited from quickly expanding its labour force. But the rapid increase, driven primarily by foreign workers and students, has led to growing anxiety about housing shortages and the cost of living, prompting the Trudeau government to scale back its open immigration policies.

“This policy would have a material impact on the economy moving forward,” Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins, said in a report to investors. “The combination of a highly interest-rate sensitive economy and the likelihood of slower population growth are the main reasons we have been more bearish on the medium-term outlook for the Canadian economy.”

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A decrease in temporary residents might offset the short-term economic benefits of any Bank of Canada rate cuts this year, Mendes said, adding that it could have an “even more severe impact” next year and in 2026 as population growth will be cut in half.

Robert Kavcic, an economist at Bank of Montreal, expects Canadian population growth to be slashed to near 1 per cent in the coming years, in line with the pace seen in the decade before the pandemic. The population has been growing around 3 per cent recently.

“The impacts will be: Less pressure on rents and housing, less stress and inflation in services, and lower interest rates than we otherwise would see if these inflows were to continue,” Kavcic said.

Worsening housing affordability was a major impetus for the government’s cap. Rent prices have been surging across major cities and have been a key contributor to consumer price increases in Canada. In February, the overall rate of inflation eased to 2.8 per cent on an annual basis, while rents jumped 8.2 per cent.

Excluding shelter costs, the consumer price index rose 1.3 per cent, below the central bank’s 2 per cent target.

“By way of just slowing the upward momentum in shelter inflation, this reinforces our view that the central bank will cut rates more forcefully than what’s implied by market pricing,” Desjardins’ Mendes said.

Currently, markets are pricing in more than three rate cuts by the end of this year, with a high probability that the Bank of Canada will begin that process in June.

The government’s immigration change will hurt businesses that are relying on importing low-wage foreign workers to fill jobs. According to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, 22 per cent of small businesses in February said that a lack of unskilled or semi-skilled labour was impeding their ability to maintain their current operations or grow.

“The costs of bringing in a foreign worker are much higher compared to those associated with the hiring of someone already in Canada,” Christina Santini, CFIB’s director of national affairs, said in an emailed statement. “When employers turn to temporary foreign workers, it’s because they can’t find someone already in Canada.”  

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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