The U.S. Navy Ship Comfort arrives in New York City, pandemic epicentre. The ship can be equipped with 1,000 hospital beds. (Mike Segar/Reuters)
Canada’s next-door neighbour is now the epicentre of a global pandemic. The tremors coming from America will ripple across the border and beyond.
The United States has by far the most reported cases of COVID-19 of any country, not just in total numbers but also with a per-capita rate that apparently dwarfs Canada’s.
A staggering array of effects will be felt in both countries: a battered economy, suspended cross-border work trips, holidays cancelled, families separated, loved ones suffering.
One such effect was highlighted Monday by President Donald Trump. He voiced his intention to extend international travel restrictions currently set to expire April 12 for visitors entering from Europe, and April 20 for those entering the U.S. from Canada.
That’s after he extended social-distancing guidelines until April 30, citing grim projections that inaction could cost up to 2.2 million Americans their lives.
When asked Monday about the travel restrictions to Canada and Europe, Trump acknowledged they would remain in place at least until April 30: “The guidelines will be very much as they are.”
Epidemiologists urge caution in interpreting the U.S. numbers.
They say international comparisons are susceptible to error, because medical strategies and data-collection tactics differ, complicating apples-to-apples comparisons.
But here’s what the U.S. numbers say; what they don’t say; and what the U.S. spike in cases might mean for Canadians:
President Donald Trump indicated Monday that travel restrictions must last until at least April 30. (Alex Brandon/The Associated Press)
What we know:
The United States had approximately 20 times more reported cases than Canada and 25 times more deaths, as of Monday evening.
The U.S. population (330 million) is about nine times higher than Canada’s (37 million).
America’s 161,000 reported cases was by far the highest in the world, followed by about 102,000 in Italy and under 90,000 currently reported by each China and Spain. Canada has just over 7,400 officially reported cases.
One epidemiologist and public-health specialist who checked the totals Monday estimated that the rate of infections was about 2.9 times higher in the U.S. than in Canada.
James Blanchard of the University of Manitoba pegged the U.S. rate at 43 infected per 100,000, compared with 15 per 100,000 in Canada.
“Seeing almost a three-fold higher number of cases in the U.S. than in Canada suggests the current burden is higher than in Canada,” said Blanchard, who was trained at Johns Hopkins University in the U.S. and who researches how individuals and communities spread illness.
“It seems unlikely that Canada’s pace is going to catch up to the U.S.”
Saverio Stranges, the chair of epidemiology and biostatistics at Western University’s Schulich School, concurred “it is extremely likely” that the case rate is higher in the U.S.
Trump has tried presenting the higher American rate as a success story involving American testing.
“We test more than anybody else,” Trump told Fox News on Monday. “So we will show [more].”
Blanchard said there’s no evidence the U.S. has tested more people — at least not per capita. Canada said Monday it had tested more than 221,000 people, while Trump said Monday that the U.S. had tested over one million people.
New York State has nearly half the U.S. cases. A healthcare worker sits on a bench near Central Park in New York City on Monday. (Jeenah Moon/Reuters)
What we don’t know:
Blanchard and Stranges warn that country-to-country comparisons can be a minefield. “It’s extremely difficult to make these comparisons,” Stranges said.
For starters, both cautioned against seeing pandemics as national events. In reality, they said, they’re a series of local phenomena. Stranges noted that nearly half the U.S. cases are in New York State — just as, in his native Italy, the worst-hit region was Lombardy, around Milan, while elsewhere in Italy the numbers were closer to the international norm.
Blanchard said New York City might be uniquely prone for its population density; also, more than 65 million visitors flocked there last year.
“Within each country there are many focal epidemics,” Blanchard said. “The future trajectory for each country will be determined by how well the epidemics in larger population centres are controlled.”
Another huge issue is testing methodology. Even within the same country, differences in data-collection complicate the ability to make comparisons.
Take Canada’s two most populous provinces. The largest, Ontario, has reported just over 1,700 cases — but has experienced large testing backlogs; last week, Ontario reported that 11,000 people were awaiting test results. As of Monday evening, Ontario had tested 48,461 people — and 5,651 test results were pending.
Quebec, meanwhile, has far more reported cases than Ontario, but has also tested far more people than its neighbour.
So that’s the kind of trouble you run into when comparing different jurisdictions. The same difficulties arise where comparing different countries.
“I am cautious about interpreting the [Canada-U.S.] data,” Blanchard said.
However, he added, he still thinks the U.S. rate of infection is higher than Canada’s. If anything, he said Canada has done a better job testing people and the actual gap with the U.S. could be even wider.
Snowbirds have headed home. Beaches in the Florida panhandle have been closed by county officials since March 21. Here, an Okaloosa County Beach Safety lifeguard patrols an empty beach near Fort Walton Beach, Fla., on Monday. (Devon Ravine/Northwest Florida Daily News via AP)
What it means for Canadians:
In short, deep disruption and confusion for a broad range of Canadians, from businesses, to professional travellers, to tourists, to people separated from loved ones.
And that’s not to mention the chain-reaction of effects when the world’s biggest economic powerhouse stalls.
A stunning new estimate from the U.S. Federal Reserve says the American unemployment rate could hit an eye-popping 32 per cent in this quarter.
That evaporation of American incomes would further batter Canada’s economy, given that three-quarters of Canada’s international exports go to the U.S.
Then there are Canadians with property in the U.S. It’s unclear when they’ll get to return.
Michael MacKenzie, executive director at the Canadian Snowbird Association, said he suspects virtually all 115,000 of his group’s members have left the U.S. He said people rushed home over a week ago on government instructions, which coincided with health-insurance providers suspending policies. “I’m not personally aware of any of our members still there,” he said.
People with professional visas are mostly not travelling either, even if they’re allowed.
Andrea Vaitzner, an immigration lawyer at Norton Rose Fulbright in Montreal said professional travellers are being deterred by the lockdown orders in various U.S. cities, and by the Canadian order to self-quarantine for 14 days after foreign travel. The latest stay-at-home orders Monday came from Washington, D.C., and neighbouring Maryland and Virginia.
“I am telling clients to stay put for now,” Vaitzner said. She said border towns that rely on Canada-U.S. travel are being hit especially hard.
One border town is starting to suffer a heavy humanitarian toll: Detroit, where cases are surging. And Canadian medical workers are getting a gut-wrenchingly close view.
“My district relies on 1,000 Canadian nurses,” Rashida Tlaib, a member of Congress from Detroit, told a U.S. House hearing this month, urging that essential workers be allowed to keep flowing across the border.
They still are.
Jenna Meloche lives in Amherstburg and works in Detroit where the number of COVID-19 deaths is rising. 2:05
Jenna Meloche is one of those essential workers in a Detroit hospital.
The nurse from Windsor, Ont., has described how patients are forced to die in isolation. Loved ones ask medical staff like her to deliver final goodbye messages.
Meloche said hospital staff pray before their shifts. She lives with her parents and now wears a mask at home, uses a separate bathroom, and is looking at getting a separate place.
“I think you have to give yourself a little mirror pep talk in the morning before you go into work,” she told CBC News.
“The way I view it is I have the luxury of helping these people get through the most difficult time in their life. … And I think that is the main reason why my mom, my sister, my great aunt and a lot of my friends got into nursing — is to have the opportunity to help these people…
VANCOUVER – Contract negotiations resume today in Vancouver in a labour dispute that has paralyzed container cargo shipping at British Columbia’s ports since Monday.
The BC Maritime Employers Association and International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 514 are scheduled to meet for the next three days in mediated talks to try to break a deadlock in negotiations.
The union, which represents more than 700 longshore supervisors at ports, including Vancouver, Prince Rupert and Nanaimo, has been without a contract since March last year.
The latest talks come after employers locked out workers in response to what it said was “strike activity” by union members.
The start of the lockout was then followed by several days of no engagement between the two parties, prompting federal Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon to speak with leaders on both sides, asking them to restart talks.
MacKinnon had said that the talks were “progressing at an insufficient pace, indicating a concerning absence of urgency from the parties involved” — a sentiment echoed by several business groups across Canada.
In a joint letter, more than 100 organizations, including the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Business Council of Canada and associations representing industries from automotive and fertilizer to retail and mining, urged the government to do whatever it takes to end the work stoppage.
“While we acknowledge efforts to continue with mediation, parties have not been able to come to a negotiated agreement,” the letter says. “So, the federal government must take decisive action, using every tool at its disposal to resolve this dispute and limit the damage caused by this disruption.
“We simply cannot afford to once again put Canadian businesses at risk, which in turn puts Canadian livelihoods at risk.”
In the meantime, the union says it has filed a complaint to the Canada Industrial Relations Board against the employers, alleging the association threatened to pull existing conditions out of the last contract in direct contact with its members.
“The BCMEA is trying to undermine the union by attempting to turn members against its democratically elected leadership and bargaining committee — despite the fact that the BCMEA knows full well we received a 96 per cent mandate to take job action if needed,” union president Frank Morena said in a statement.
The employers have responded by calling the complaint “another meritless claim,” adding the final offer to the union that includes a 19.2 per cent wage increase over a four-year term remains on the table.
“The final offer has been on the table for over a week and represents a fair and balanced proposal for employees, and if accepted would end this dispute,” the employers’ statement says. “The offer does not require any concessions from the union.”
The union says the offer does not address the key issue of staffing requirement at the terminals as the port introduces more automation to cargo loading and unloading, which could potentially require fewer workers to operate than older systems.
The Port of Vancouver is the largest in Canada and has seen a number of labour disruptions, including two instances involving the rail and grain storage sectors earlier this year.
A 13-day strike by another group of workers at the port last year resulted in the disruption of a significant amount of shipping and trade.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 9, 2024.
The Royal Canadian Legion says a new partnership with e-commerce giant Amazon is helping boost its veterans’ fund, and will hopefully expand its donor base in the digital world.
Since the Oct. 25 launch of its Amazon.ca storefront, the legion says it has received nearly 10,000 orders for poppies.
Online shoppers can order lapel poppies on Amazon in exchange for donations or buy items such as “We Remember” lawn signs, Remembrance Day pins and other accessories, with all proceeds going to the legion’s Poppy Trust Fund for Canadian veterans and their families.
Nujma Bond, the legion’s national spokesperson, said the organization sees this move as keeping up with modern purchasing habits.
“As the world around us evolves we have been looking at different ways to distribute poppies and to make it easier for people to access them,” she said in an interview.
“This is definitely a way to reach a wider number of Canadians of all ages. And certainly younger Canadians are much more active on the web, on social media in general, so we’re also engaging in that way.”
Al Plume, a member of a legion branch in Trenton, Ont., said the online store can also help with outreach to veterans who are far from home.
“For veterans that are overseas and are away, (or) can’t get to a store they can order them online, it’s Amazon.” Plume said.
Plume spent 35 years in the military with the Royal Engineers, and retired eight years ago. He said making sure veterans are looked after is his passion.
“I’ve seen the struggles that our veterans have had with Veterans Affairs … and that’s why I got involved, with making sure that the people get to them and help the veterans with their paperwork.”
But the message about the Amazon storefront didn’t appear to reach all of the legion’s locations, with volunteers at Branch 179 on Vancouver’s Commercial Drive saying they hadn’t heard about the online push.
Holly Paddon, the branch’s poppy campaign co-ordinator and bartender, said the Amazon partnership never came up in meetings with other legion volunteers and officials.
“I work at the legion, I work with the Vancouver poppy office and I go to the meetings for the Vancouver poppy campaign — which includes all the legions in Vancouver — and not once has this been mentioned,” she said.
Paddon said the initiative is a great idea, but she would like to have known more about it.
The legion also sells a larger collection of items at poppystore.ca.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 9, 2024.
