In 2023, Canada’s population of non-permanent residents (NPRs) grew by more than half a million people, part of the steepest single-year rise in at least five decades of available data.
In a report last week, Statistics Canada (StatCan) counted a total of 2.5 million NPRs as of this October, up from 1.7 million the same time last year. The 2023 growth shatters previous year-to-year records in the available data, tripling the increase of nearly 170,000 between the summers of 2018 and 2019.
NPR totals have grown by just over 80 per cent since the fourth quarter of 2021, the data shows.
In an emailed statement, StatCan told CTVNews.ca that 2023’s NPR growth could be attributed in part to the easing of COVID-19 travel restrictions and increases to work and study permits processed by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC).
This year also saw StatCan update its methodology for estimating NPR population data; a change that the agency clarified had, in 2021/22, a roughly five per cent impact on the estimated growth in NPR totals (196,000, compared with an estimate of 205,000 under the older protocol).
“This is our usual practice, especially after a census, as updating our methods enables us to remain relevant,” StatCan said in the statement issued Wednesday. “The impact of these adjustments on the total size of the Canadian population is minimal.”
Jeffrey Reitz, a professor emeritus of sociology at the University of Toronto, says the embrace of increasing migration by the federal government has, for years, been a reflection of economic interests.
“When the Liberal government came in, in 2016, they appointed a committee to evaluate various ways of improvement for the growth of the Canadian economy. Members of this committee were mostly businessmen, but also academic economists, and they all recommended a dramatic increase in immigration numbers,” he said in an interview with CTVNews.ca.
“The government’s done, pretty much, what business leaders have requested.”
A June report from the National Bank of Canada describes NPRs as “increasingly pivotal” to the country’s “ongoing population boom;” one that data from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shows has put Canada at the top of the G7 for population growth, averaging roughly 1.2 per cent annually since 2014.
This past quarter, 96 per cent of Canada’s domestic population growth came from permanent or non-permanent immigration, according to StatCan.
“Few (if any) major advanced countries can match what’s going on in Canada,” the National Bank report read. “Permanent immigrants have long been an important flow. But at the margin, (NPRs) are now front and centre.”
MAJOR GROWTH IN WORK AND STUDY PERMITS
A StatCan review of 2021 census data published this summer found that compared to the rest of the Canadian population, including permanent immigrants, the average NPR was significantly younger, more educated and more likely to participate in the labour force.
Among NPRs, top countries of origin include India (28.5 per cent), China (10.5 per cent), France (5.1 per cent) and the Philippines (3.6 per cent).
In recent years, some of the fastest growth among NPR populations has been in work-permit holders, with 1.6 million counted nationwide this quarter, up from roughly 830,000 in late 2021.
As of the most recent data, the majority of Canada’s 2.5 million NPRs hold work permits, with close to one million permitted to study in the country. These totals include asylum claimants, a majority of whom also hold either a work or study permit, or both.
The growth comes amid what IRCC describes as record-breaking numbers for new permits, including more than 1.5 million for workers and one million for students processed, finalized or extended this year.
“The reality is that Canada needs more people. … This summer, there were close to one million job vacancies in our economy. It’s essential to advance policies that address labour shortages,” said then-immigration minister Sean Fraser in a speech in late 2022.
“We’re going to continue to create opportunities for more people to come to Canada to contribute to our economic well-being and to have our system become more compassionate at the same time.”
But as Reitz points out, sudden increases to Canada’s NPR population are likely to cause problems of their own — both for Canada’s existing population and for newcomers.
“In the past, when the number of international students was 100,000 or so, a reasonable percentage of those folks could qualify for permanent-resident status. But if you then bring in 800,000 or 900,000, … you’re not going to be able to transition an equivalent proportion,” he explained.
“The students who are coming, who are thinking that they’re going to qualify for permanent status, are likely to be very, very disappointed.”
Prospects aren’t much better in the working world, Reitz says. Historically, immigration initiatives like the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) have sought to fill specific gaps in Canada’s labour market, but with industry-level needs changing faster than the immigration process brings people into the country to meet them, complications have arisen.
“Around 2013-2014 … what was being reported was instances in which employers were bringing in immigrants to actually replace Canadians, at lower wages,” Reitz recalled. “This was contrary to the express purpose of the (TFWP), to bring in workers where Canadians were not available.”
What can result is a growing proportion of underpaid Canadian and foreign workers alike, with the latter fearing deportation if they don’t appease the businesses vital to their presence in the country. It’s a vulnerability to abuse that underlies a variety of the challenges facing those in the system.
A study published this year by researchers at StatCan, Brock and Western universities found that between 2010 and 2017, the introduction of low-wage TFWP workers correlated with lowered earnings for the lower-skilled, least-paid Canadian employees of a firm, but higher earnings for the higher-skilled, highest-paid Canadians.
“A major challenge of administering a (TFWP) is that foreign workers facing poor employment options in their home country have incentives to accept jobs to work in Canada for lower wage rates than a typical Canadian would accept,” the study reads.
“This can lead to worse outcomes for Canadians in the labour market if firms internalize this knowledge when making hiring decisions and select TFWs over Canadians.”
SIGNALS OF SLOWING GROWTH ON THE HORIZON
Amid public criticism abroad, federal officials have signalled possible reductions to NPR growth in the near future.
In a report published this September, United Nations Special Rapporteur Tomoya Obokata described low-wage and agricultural streams of the TFWP as constituting a “breeding ground for contemporary forms of slavery,” adding that he was “perturbed by reports that the share of workers entering Canada through this programme is sharply on the rise.”
Two months later, Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced a new three-year plan designed to chart “a responsible course for sustainable and stable population growth.”
The plan included a freeze on permanent-resident targets at 500,000 annually in 2025 and 2026, and actions in the new year to “recalibrate the number of temporary resident admissions” to ensure the program runs sustainably.
In addition, Miller announced earlier this month plans to double the minimum financial requirement for international students in 2024, to roughly $20,000 in savings from $10,000, on top of the ability to cover their first-year’s tuition and travel expenses.
“We are revising the cost-of-living threshold so that international students understand the true cost of living here,” Miller said in a December release.
“These long-overdue changes will protect international students from financially vulnerable situations and exploitation.”
TAMPA, Fla. (AP) — The Tampa Bay Lightning selected Victor Hedman as the team captain on Wednesday as training camp opened, making the big defenseman the successor to Steven Stamkos.
Hedman, who is going into his 16th season with Tampa Bay, was considered the obvious choice to get the “C” after the Lightning did not re-sign Stamkos and their longtime captain left to join Nashville.
“Victor is a cornerstone player that is extremely well respected by his teammates, coaches and peers across the NHL,” general manager Julien BriseBois said. “Over the past 15 seasons, he has been a world-class representative for our organization both on and off the ice. Victor embodies what it means to be a member of the Tampa Bay Lightning and is more than ready for this exciting opportunity. We are looking forward to watching him flourish in his new role as we continue to work towards our goal of winning the Stanley Cup.”
The 33-year-old from Sweden was a key contributor in the Lightning hoisting the Cup back to back in 2020 and ’21, including playoff MVP honors on the first of those championship runs. Hedman also took home the Norris Trophy as the NHL’s top defenseman in 2018 and finished in the top three in voting five other seasons.
Ryan McDonagh, who was reacquired early in the offseason in a trade with the Predators, and MVP finalist Nikita Kucherov will serve as alternate captains with the Lightning moving on to the post-Stamkos era.
TORONTO – While Toronto FC is looking to improve its position on the pitch, general manager Jason Hernandez is trying to do the same off it.
That has been easier said than done this season.
Sending winger Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty to CF Montreal for up to $1.3 million (all dollar figures in U.S. funds) in general allocation money before the secondary transfer window closed in early August helped set the stage for future moves.
But there have been plenty of obstacles, which Hernandez has been working to clear.
“We feel a lot more confident going into this upcoming off-season that we did the one prior,” said Hernandez. “There’s a level of what I would say booby-traps that were uncovered when I first got the (GM) role at the end of last summer.”
The club is paying off departed forwards Adam Diomande and Ayo Akinola as well as a $500,000 payment due in 2024 to Belgium’s Anderlecht for Jamaican international defender Kemar Lawrence. That payment was part of the transfer fee for Lawrence, who joined TFC from Anderlecht in May 2021 and was traded to Minnesota United in March 2022.
Diomande was waived while Akinola’s contract was terminated by mutual agreement.
“That comes to an end in ’25, which is nice,” said Hernandez. “We had to suffer from a salary cap perspective this season. But those things coming off, the Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty money coming in, we’re going to be in a position to make some good additions, which is positive.”
While MLS clubs are allowed one contract buyout per year, Toronto had already used its on former captain Michel Bradley, who retired after last season. Bradley had previously restructured his contract, deferring money.
TFC’s only other move during the summer transfer window was the signing of free-agent defender Henry Wingo. Hernandez said the club knew going into the window that it was likely limited to the one acquisition “unless other business happened”
“We knew we had this bucket of money and we knew we were going to go get Henry,” said Hernandez.
While the sale of the highly touted Marshall-Rutty opened up other possibilities, it came on the eve of the transfer window closing. And the team did not like what it saw in the free-agent market.
“A lot of the opportunities we were presented in the free agency space felt more like a short-term, Band-Aid decision versus what actually the club probably needs.”
Hernandez was not willing to take in players who came with a “club-friendly” salary cap charge in 2024 and a much bigger number in 2025.
Instead, Toronto promoted forward Charlie Sharp and wingback Nate Edwards to the first team from TFC 2 ahead of last Friday’s roster freeze.
MLS teams are operating on a salary budget of $5.47 million this season, which covers up to 20 players on the senior roster (clubs can elect to spread that number across 18 players). But the league has several mechanisms that allow those funds to go further, including using allocation money (both general and targeted) to buy down salaries.
Designated players only count $683,750 — the maximum salary charge — against the cap no matter their actual pay. Toronto’s Lorenzo Insigne is actually earning $15.4 million with fellow Italian Federico Bernardeschi collecting $6.295 million and Canadian Richie Laryea $1.208 million.
Hernandez says Laryea’s contract can — and “very likely” will — be restructured so as to remove the designated player status.
There are benefits in going with just two designated players rather than three.
Teams that elect to go with two DPs can sign up to four players as part of the league’s “U22 Initiative.” The pluses of that structure include a reduced salary cap charge for the young players and up to an extra $2 million in general allocation money.
Hernandez says the club is currently pondering whether that is the way to go.
Captain Jonathan Osorio who is earning $836,370 this season, restructured his deal to allow the team to sign Laryea as a DP. In doing so, Osorio had his option year guaranteed so his contact runs through 2026.
Hernandez and coach John Herdman will have decisions to make come the end of the year.
The contracts of goalkeeper Greg Ranjitsingh ($94,200), defenders Kevin Long ($277,500), Shane O’Neill ($413,000) and Kobe Franklin ($100,520), midfielder Alonso Coello ($94,050) and Brandon Servania ($602,710), and forward Prince Owusu ($807,500) — all on the club’s senior roster — expire at the end of 2024 with club options to follow.
While there is more work to do, Hernandez believes TFC is on the right road.
Toronto, which finished last in the league at 4-20-10 in 2023, went into Wednesday’s game against visiting Columbus in a playoff position at eighth in the East at 11-15-3.
“By every metric, we are miles ahead of where we were at this point last year,” said Hernandez.
“That’s a low bar, so that’s not saying much,” he added.
But he believes TFC is “quite competitive” when it has all its players at its disposal.
“To get results in this final stretch, we’re going to need our prominent players to really show up and have big performances, and be supported by the rest of the cast.”
After Columbus, TFC plays at Colorado and Chicago and hosts the New York Red Bulls and Inter Miami. The club also travels to Vancouver for the Canadian Championship final.
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This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024
Mackenzie Hughes might just be what the International team needs as this year’s Presidents Cup.
Hughes, from Dundas, Ont., is one of three Canadians on the squad competing in the match-play event at Royal Montreal Golf Club next week.
His putting skills, cool demeanour under pressure, pre-existing connections with teammates and clubhouse leadership could help the team — made up of non-American players outside Europe — end a nine-tournament losing skid to the United States at the biennial event.
“I’ve had this one circled on the calendar for a few years now,” said Hughes on joining fellow Canadians Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners as captain’s picks on the 12-player International team. “I pretty much knew that when it was announced the tournament would be in Canada and that Mike Weir was going to be the captain, you pretty much knew where that was going to go.
“To get that call from (Weir) is really special because he’s the guy that I looked up to, we all looked up to, as Canadian golfers.”
Pendrith and Conners are returning to the team after a disappointing 17 1/2 to 12 1/2 loss to the United States at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, N.C. in 2022.
Hughes was ranked 14th on the International team standings in 2022 and could have easily been included on that squad after Australia’s Cameron Smith and Chile’s Joaquin Niemann were ruled ineligible after jumping ship to the rival LIV Golf circuit.
However, captain Trevor Immelman of South Africa instead chose the lower ranked Christiaan Bezuidenhout (16th) of South Africa, Pendrith (18th), South Korea’s Kim Si-woo (20th) and Australia’s Cameron Davis (25th).
“I certainly wanted to be on that team but also I understood the picks,” said Hughes, who lives in Charlotte and plays at Quail Hollow regularly. “I think that like a lot of guys that don’t get picked you more so look back on your own play and I wish I had made that selection easier for them.
“I didn’t do myself any favours in the six weeks leading up to it and that’s a hard pill to swallow.”
It may have been a costly oversight on Immelman’s part, as finishing holes was an issue for the International team in 2022 and Hughes is one of the best putters on the PGA Tour. This season he’s third in shots gained around the green and fifth in shots gained from putting.
“It doesn’t mean that just because I was there it would have turned the tide, but I’d like to think maybe I could have helped,” said Hughes. “That’s why you play the matches. You have to get out there and do it.”
This year Hughes made it easier for Weir, the Canadian golf legend from Brights Grove, Ont., to choose him. Hughes is 51st in the FedEx Cup Fall standings and has made the cut seven tournaments in a row, including a tie for fourth at last week’s Procore Championship.
“Mac played very solidly all year. Really like his short game, an all-around short game,” said Weir on Sept. 3 after announcing his captain’s picks. “He’s one of the elite and best short game guys on the PGA Tour
“I also love Mac’s grit. So that was the reason I picked him.”
Hughes’s intangible qualities go beyond grit.
He, Pendrith and Conners will arrive at Royal Montreal as a unit within the International squad, having become close friends while playing on Kent State University’s men’s golf team before turning pro. They’re also part of a group of Canadians, including Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin of Abbotsford, B.C., that regularly practice together before PGA Tour events.
“To have those guys with me is really icing on the cake, it’s very special,” said Hughes. “Opportunities like this don’t come around very often: to play this kind of team competition, which is already hard to do, but to play with some of your best friends, it almost seems scripted.”
An 11-year professional, Hughes has also been a member of the PGA Tour’s player advisory council the past two years and has been an outspoken advocate for making professional golf more accessible to fans.
Although Weir relied heavily on analytics to make his captain’s selections, Hughes’s character came up again and again when asked why he was named to the team.
“I just have a gut feeling with Mac that he has what it takes in these big moments,” said Weir. “They’re big pressure moments, and I have a feeling he’s going to do great in those moments.”
DP WORLD TOUR — Aaron Cockerill of Stony Mountain, Man., continues his chase for a spot in the Europe-based DP World Tour’s playoffs. The top 50 players on the Race to Dubai standings make the DP World Tour Championship and Cockerill moved eight spots up to 39th in the rankings after tying for ninth at last week’s Irish Open. He’ll be back at it on Thursday at the BMW PGA Championship at the Wentworth Club in Surrey, England.
KORN FERRY TOUR — Myles Creighton of Digby, N.S., is ranked 38th on the second-tier Korn Ferry Tour’s points list. He leads the Canadian contingent into this week’s Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship. He’ll be joined at Ohio State University Golf Club — Scarlet Course in Columbus, Ohio by Edmonton’s Wil Bateman (53rd), Etienne Papineau (65th) of St-Jean-Sur-Richelieu, Que., and Sudarshan Yellamaraju (99th) of Mississauga, Ont.
CHAMPIONS TOUR — Calgary’s Stephen Ames is the lone Canadian at this week’s Pure Insurance Championship. He’s No. 2 on the senior circuit’s points list. The event will start Friday and be played at Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Course in Monterey, Calif.
LPGA TOUR — There are four Canadians in this week’s Kroger City Championship. Savannah Grewal (97th in the Race to CME Globe Rankings) of Mississauga, Ont., Hamilton’s Alena Sharp (115th), and Maude-Aimee Leblanc (142nd) of Sherbrooke, Que., will all tee it up at TPC River’s Bend in Maineville, Ohio.
EPSON TOUR — Vancouver’s Leah John is the low Canadian heading into the Murphy USA El Dorado Shootout. She’s 54th in the second-tier tour’s points list. She’ll be joined by Maddie Szeryk (118th) of London, Ont., and Brigitte Thibault (119th) of Rosemere, Que., at Mystic Creek Golf Club in El Dorado, Ark.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.
