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Canada’s Nutrien eyes potash production boost amid turmoil in Russia, Belarus

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Nutrien Ltd, the world’s biggest potash miner, could boost production by up to 29% in coming years, depending on any sanctions facing rival producers in Russia and Belarus, the Canadian company’s interim CEO told Reuters.

Prices of granular potash fertilizer are near 10-year highs in the United States and Brazil, helped by Western economic sanctions against Belarus. Russia, home of Uralkali and EuroChem potash mines, faces possible economic sanctions if it invades Ukraine.

Uralkali and Belarus Potash Company (BPC) together account for more than one-third of global potash sales, according to BMO Capital Markets.

Soaring fertilizer prices have cut in to farmers’ incomes and contributed to global food inflation. Additional potash production may slow rising costs.

Saskatoon, Saskatchewan-based Nutrien could restart up to 4 million tonnes of idled annual capacity in that Canadian province in coming years as it assesses the long-term outlook for sanctions against competitors, interim Chief Executive Ken Seitz said in his first interview since his promotion in January.

“If these are short-lived events, we don’t want to spend all kinds of money staffing and opening up ground,” he said. “If this is going to be a longer-term problem for the market, we will absolutely do that.

“We will absolutely step into that void.”

A Russian troop buildup near Ukraine has stoked fears of war. The United States and United Kingdom are prepared to punish Russian elites close to President Vladimir Putin with asset freezes and travel bans if Russia sends troops into Ukraine, the White House and British government said on Monday.

As a first step in raising production, Nutrien may raise output by 700,000 to 1 million tonnes in the second half of 2022 at low expense, Seitz said, reiterating comments he made last year. Nutrien currently produces nearly 14 million tonnes, representing 19% of global sales.

Seitz could not say how soon Nutrien might restart the remainder of Nutrien’s idled capacity, which would involve more work.

Nutrien has had no talks, Seitz said, in his short time at the helm about any form of potash partnership with BHP Group, which is building a Canadian mine.

Canpotex Ltd, the export company owned by Nutrien and Mosaic Co, is fully committed for sales through March 31, illustrating strong demand for Canadian potash.

Global operational capacity, however, exceeds demand by over 10 million tonnes this year, according to BMO Capital Markets.

“In a normal situation, the potash market is oversupplied,” said BMO analyst Joel Jackson. “If I was Nutrien, I would probably hold back on my decision to expand too much too fast.”

Additional production from competitors will not fully replace BPC, which previously sold about 12.5 million tonnes a year, said Elena Sakhnova, an analyst at VTB Capital.

The board of Lithuanian Railways on Monday voted to stop transporting Belarus’ potash, isolating it from a key port.

Russian producers are unlikely to rush to increase their output because of speculation that Washington may grant a waiver to BPC’s U.S. buyers, essentially postponing sanctions from taking effect on April 1, Sakhnova said.

A EuroChem spokesperson said the company has no plans to accelerate ramp-up of its new production. Uralkali declined to comment.

Unlike the last time potash prices were this high over a decade ago, there are few advanced junior projects to add production. Construction of a small, 250,000-tonne Gensource Potash facility could start in Canada this summer, with first output in 2024.

For larger producers, adding additional tonnes is not as inexpensive or simple as they say, Gensource CEO Mike Ferguson said.

“They are so used to just controlling things in the industry and have started to believe their own marketing about having excess capacity,” Ferguson said.

 

(Reporting by Rod Nickel in Winnipeg and Polina Devitt in Moscow; Editing by Matthew Lewis)

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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