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Canada's output stalls as exports and business investment drop – BNNBloomberg.ca

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Canada’s economy slid to a near halt in the fourth quarter, as exports dropped by the most since 2017 and business investment declined, but December came in stronger-than-expected, suggesting the economy had a bit of momentum going into 2020 before the coronavirus concerns.

Gross domestic product grew at an annualized pace of 0.3 per cent — essentially a stall — in the three months ended December, in line with economist and Bank of Canada estimates, the federal statistics agency reported Friday. That was down from a revised 1.1 per cent pace in the previous quarter, making it the second-straight quarterly deceleration and slowest pace of growth since 2016.

The period ended on a higher note than most analysts anticipated with a monthly expansion of 0.3 per cent in December, the fastest pace of growth since May. This brings the annual growth rate of Canada’s real GDP to 1.6 per cent for 2019, down from two per cent in 2018, and lower than the U.S., which posted a 2.3 per cent increase in real GDP, the agency said.

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The Canadian dollar was down 0.4 per cent to $1.3438 against its U.S. counterpart at 8:37 a.m. Toronto time. Bets that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates at the March 4 meeting rose to more than 50 per cent, from 36 per cent on Thursday.

Key Insights

-The slowdown in the fourth quarter was largely expected as a series of temporary factors including a week-long rail strike, manufacturing plant disruptions and pipeline shutdowns stunted growth. The quarter started off weak with most of the temporary factors occurring during the first two months of the period. And while December recouped some of the losses, this still doesn’t change the picture that Canada’s economy remains in a fragile position and the Bank of Canada could cut rates, especially in light of the recent impacts from the coronavirus and domestic rail disruptions

-The saving grace for the economy was household spending, — a reflection of a strong labor market — up two per cent annualized on the quarter. But Canadians are largely buying non-durable goods and services — which suggests they may be wary of big ticket items. Another indicator of caution is that the household savings rate rose to three per cent in the fourth quarter

-Businesses had a tough quarter, perhaps reflecting the heightened global trade tensions at the end of the year. The drop in exports was the biggest downward contributor to 4Q output, falling 5.1 per cent annualized, the biggest drop since 2017. Business investment contracted three per cent in the fourth quarter after an 8.4 per cent expansion in the prior quarter. Investment in machinery and equipment fell 13.5 

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-Supply chain disruptions drove business inventories higher in 4Q, contributing 0.6% to the annualized growth rate. This suggests that if businesses had chosen not to increase inventories, the economy would have contracted. This could potentially drag on 2020 growth if firms decide to meet demand by drawing down stockpiles.

-Residential investment decelerated to an annualized pace of 1.1 per cent in the fourth quarter from 13 per cent in the prior quarter. Non-residential investment shrunk by an annualized 6.3 per cent, more than offsetting the pickup in capital spending in the third quarter

-Overall, domestic demand — which excludes the trade sector and inventories — remained sluggish, growing at just 0.7 per cent on an annualized basis

-The housing market softened in the 4Q as investment in new construction decelerated

-Third quarter GDP was revised down to an annualized 1.1 per cent, from an initial estimate of 1.3 per cent

–With assistance from Erik Hertzberg.

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Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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