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Canada's plan to ease runaway housing prices could backfire on Trudeau: experts – National | Globalnews.ca – Global News

Published

2 years ago

May 2, 2022

The Canadian government’s plan to ease runaway housing prices by rapidly ramping up the pace of home construction risks pushing up construction costs in the near term and could lead to oversupply in the long run, experts said.

Vowing to double homebuilding to keep up with population growth and address a shortfall that has helped fuel a real estate boom, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals last month outlined plans to build 3.5 million homes over the next decade.

But experts argue Canada’s housing shortage is not nearly as acute as the government suggests, noting starts are running at historic levels – around 250,000 a year – with a record number of units under construction, though completions lag.

“I think we definitely need new supply to meet increasing household growth as a result of immigration. I believe that the 3.5 million is a complete exaggeration,” said Steve Pomeroy, a housing policy consultant and professor at Carleton University in Ottawa.

There are very real risks to trying to force the pace of construction higher too quickly, he added.

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“The consequence, if we do try to increase it, is we will run into a whole bunch of issues in the supply chain – labor, land and materials – and will actually push house prices even higher,” Pomeroy said.

Alarms are already ringing in Canada’s construction industry, which is facing a dire shortage of workers and a retirement crisis, not to mention rising costs of lumber and other raw materials due to the global supply chain crisis.

Homebuilding also generally falls under the jurisdiction of provincial and municipal governments, making it harder to craft a national strategy.

Price surge

National home prices have more than doubled since Trudeau took office in late 2015, and gains have far outpaced those of the United States and Canada’s other Group of Seven peers over the last 15 years.

The price surge has made homes in cities like Toronto and Vancouver unaffordable to many residents, prompting authorities to take steps to alleviate the pressure. Trudeau’s government recently announced a two-year ban on foreign buyers.

“We simply have not had enough housing supply in Canada to reflect the dramatic increase in our population compared to our G7 partner countries,” Canada’s Housing Minister Ahmed Hussen said in an interview.

Hussen pointed to OECD data showing Canada has fewer homes per 1,000 people than the G7 average. The existing shortfall adds up to about 1.8 million homes, according to Scotiabank estimates.

With immigration set to increase and more young people forming new households, the current construction rate is barely “chipping away” at that gap, said Bob Dugan, chief economist of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, the national housing agency.

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“It would take 36 years in order to get there at the current pace of housing starts,” Dugan told reporters late last month. “And we have some internal estimates that suggest the need is much greater than that 1.8 million” forecast by Scotiabank.

But critics of that assessment say Canada needs fewer homes overall because it has more people per household than the G7 average, due to young children and intergenerational living. And Canada’s ratio of homes to population is on par with the United States and the United Kingdom, which have not seen nearly the same price appreciation.

“Count me as skeptical in terms of just how much of a massive supply shortage there is, perhaps outside of a few major centers,” said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Economics.

A more intense construction blitz also risks oversupplying the market. The last time Canadian home prices fell for a significant period was in the early 1990s, after rapid price gains in the prior decade led to a building boom and subsequent supply glut.

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With rising interest rates cooling demand and housing starts at elevated levels, it is a situation that could repeat itself – to some degree – if construction ramps up too much.

“It is quite, quite possible that you could end up with oversupply,” Porter said. “I personally don’t lose that much sleep over that … But I wouldn’t entirely dismiss it as a concern.”

— Reporting by Julie Gordon in Ottawa

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Toronto FC downs Austin FC to pick up three much-needed points in MLS playoff push

Published

17 mins ago

September 14, 2024

Anne Joseph

TORONTO – Needing three points to keep their playoff push alive, Toronto FC’s Jonathan Osorio and Deandre Kerr stepped up with first-half goals against Austin FC on Saturday with goalkeeper Sean Johnson doing his bit at the other end.

A 76th-minute goal by Austin’s Owen Wolff made for a nervy ending but TFC hung on for a 2-1 win.

While Toronto (11-15-3) remains on the Major League Soccer playoff bubble in eighth place in the Eastern Conference (the eighth- and ninth-place teams in each conference square off in a wild-card playoff with the winner facing the top seed in the conference), other results went their way.

Seventh-place Charlotte, 10th-place Atlanta and 11th-place Philadelphia all lost while ninth-place D.C. United tied.

Toronto midfielder Alonso Coello called it “a game we had to win.”

“It’s a big win … To see that fight tonight was important,” added coach John Herdman.

Austin (9-12-7) came into the game in 11th place in the West, two points below ninth-place Minnesota. The Texas side has won just one of its last six league games (1-4-1).

Austin outshot Toronto 7-6 (6-2 edge in shots on target) in the first half but found itself trailing 2-0 at the break as Toronto took advantage of its chances and the visitors didn’t in their first-ever visit to BMO Field, before an announced crowd of 25,538.

Toronto had a dream start, catching Austin on the counterattack in the seventh minute. A sliding Austin player dispossessed an onrushing Kerr, who had been set free by a long ball from Coello, but the ball bounced to Osorio, who beat goalkeeper Brad Stuver with a rising shot.

It was the Toronto captain’s second goal of the season in league play and his 65th for TFC in all competitions. Only Sebastian Giovinco (83) and Jozy Altidore (79) scored more in Toronto colours.

TFC went ahead on another counterattack in the 30th minute after an Austin giveaway. Osorio found Richie Laryea outpacing his marker and the wingback unselfishly sent a perfect low cross across goal for Kerr to knock home for his third of the season.

Wolff, the son of Austin head coach Josh Wolff, made it interesting with his late strike. The 19-year-old U.S. youth international, controlling a long ball, beat defender Raoul Petretta and then waited out Johnson before slotting it home for his first of the season.

Toronto survived a nervy six minutes of stoppage time as Austin pressed for the equalizer. Austin outshot Toronto 14-9 (8-3 in shots on target) and had 52.5 per cent possession.

The win evened Toronto’s home record at 7-7-0, while Austin slipped to 3-8-3 on the road.

It was a costly evening for Austin with defender Brendan Hines-Ike, midfielder Jhojan Valencia and star attacker Sebastian Driussi allpicking up cautions to miss Wednesday’s game with Los Angeles FC due to yellow-card accumulation.

Toronto defender Shane O’Neill will miss Wednesday’s game against visiting Columbus for the same reason. Toronto could be short mid-week, too. The hope is veteran centre back Kevin Long, who missed Saturday’s game after tweaking his hamstring in training, will be good to go.

Toronto has five games remaining, including three more at home as it looks to return to the post-season for the first time since 2020 when it lost to Nashville after extra time at the first hurdle.

It is a challenging road.

TFC hosts Columbus, the New York Red Bulls and Inter Miami while playing away at the Colorado Rapids and Chicago Fire. All but Chicago are in playoff positions.

The only previous meeting between Toronto and Austin was in May 2023, when Zardes scored a 91st-minute winner to give Austin a 1-0 win over visiting Toronto, which was then mired at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. That loss prompted a post-game outburst from Italian star Federico Bernardeschi about TFC’s drab play.

Then-coach Bob Bradley benched Bernardeschi for the next game.

Current coach John Herdman made four changes to his starting 11 with Bernardeschi and Osorio returning from suspension and Coello and Kerr also slotting in. Coello, who had missed the last eight league games with a hamstring injury, was impressive in his 59-minute return.

Both Toronto and Austin suffered home losses last time out going into the international break. Toronto was beaten 3-1 by D.C. United while Austin lost 1-0 to Vancouver.

—

Follow @NeilMDavidson on X platform.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2024.

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CF Montreal finds its groove with 2-1 win over Charlotte

Published

18 mins ago

September 14, 2024

Anne Joseph

MONTREAL – CF Montreal is back in the win column after securing a 2-1 Major League Soccer win over Charlotte FC on Saturday night at Stade Saputo.

Montreal’s form had suffered of late, with just one win in MLS since July, but Laurent Courtois’ squad showed a level of poise and control over the tempo of the game that had not been seen since the beginning of the season.

“What we’ve changed in the last few weeks or months in terms of our methodology or coaching, is nothing. We did the exact thing, We had the exact same words, and we expressed them the exact same way,” said Courtois. “Today, everything just clicked.”

Caden Clark scored for the first time as a Montreal (7-12-9) player in the 23rd minute, in addition to Bryce Duke’s goal three minutes later that ended up being the winner, while Tim Ream found the back of the net for Charlotte (10-10-8).

Montreal had the first major scoring chance of the match after 15 minutes of play. With a free kick roughly 25 metres away from goal, Gabriele Corbo sent a near-perfect shot smashing off the crossbar.

Montreal would continue to dictate the tempo in the opening phase, finding first blood just seven minutes later.

Following a phenomenal triple-save from Charlotte goalkeeper Kristijan Kahlina, the ball fell to Clark who volleyed the ball into the wide-open net, picking up his first goal for the club.

“I think you don’t lose the feeling (of scoring), everything happens for a reason, you just can’t lose yourself in the chaos,” said Clark, who had missed a full season due to injury and was briefly without a club, but was grateful for Courtois’ confidence in him.

“(To have a coach’s confidence) is huge and is something I’ve had both ends of so you just can’t take advantage of that in the wrong way. I’m going to keep my discipline with the game plan and keep my head right.”

With momentum completely on their side, the home side doubled the lead just three minutes later. Montreal continued to build up play on the left flank and found a streaking Raheem Edwards in behind the defence who cut the ball back to Duke, sending the Stade Saputo crowd into a frenzy.

Just after the half-hour mark, Charlotte pulled one back through a set piece — something Montreal has struggled defending all season — as Ream rose above everyone at the back post to score his first with his new club.

The second half began in a similar fashion to the end of the first, with Charlotte pressing high up the pitch and forcing several turnovers in dangerous areas. After surviving the pressure, Montreal began to regain control of the game near the hour mark, enjoying the lion’s share of the possession while Charlotte looked to hit back on the counterattack.

“I think when we conceded that goal we were like ‘here we go again.’ 2-1 is a tough lead before halftime … and at the beginning of the half we kind of shot ourselves in the foot and they pressed a bit more, they moved a bit more forward and that opened some gaps,” said captain Samuel Piette.

“I was happy with that, it shows character. At the end of the day, we just wanted the three points and that’s what we got.”

As the game progressed, Charlotte pushed harder to find an equalizer but to no avail. With only one shot on target conceded, the second-worst defence in the league put up an impressive front and confidently rebuffed every single Charlotte attack.

“I’m a big fan of the back five’s performance in their discipline, competitiveness, and synchronization with balls in behind,” said Courtois.

“We can’t explain sometimes in a game it’s not there, they’re capable and today they showed it. Let’s see tomorrow.”

UP NEXT

Both teams are back in action on Sept. 18 away from home as Montreal will look to avenge a 5-0 rout against the New England Revolution while Charlotte visits Orlando City SC.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2024.

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Calgary Stampeders, Montreal Alouettes battle to 19-19 tie

Published

22 mins ago

September 14, 2024

Anne Joseph

CALGARY – The Calgary Stampeders ended a four-game losing streak and the Montreal Alouettes remained unbeaten on the road this CFL season with a 19-19 tie Saturday.

The two clubs traded field goals in overtime for the game to end in a stalemate.

Quarterback Cody Fajardo completed 19 or 26 pass attempts for 204 yards and scored a rushing touchdown for Montreal (10-2-1) in his third start since he was sidelined for six weeks with a hamstring injury.

Montreal kicker Jose Maltos kicked field goals from 53 and 42 yards, and from 30 and 37 yards in overtime.

His Stampeders counterpart Rene Paredes was good from 14 and 16 yards, missed from 51 and 52 yards, and then made a pair of 42-yarders in OT in front of an announced 20,187 at McMahon Stadium.

Quarterback Jake Maier was 29-of-37 in passing for 236 yards for Calgary (4-8-1). He was restored to starter after backing up Logan Bonner in a 37-16 road loss to the Edmonton Elks.

Calgary’s Marken Michel had a touchdown catch and Dedrick Mills rushed for 122 yards.

The Stampeders led 13-10 when Paredes’ 51-yard try early in the fourth rebounded off the left upright.

The Stampeders worked the ball to Montreal’s 15-yard line with just over two minutes to go, but undid that work with two major penalties.

Paredes’ 52-yard attempt was wide right to give the ball to Montreal with just over a minute to play.

Fajardo marched the offence downfield and with a second remaining, Maltos tied the game with a 42-yard field goal.

Paredes’ 16-yard field goal gave the Stampeders a 13-7 edge, but the Alouettes continued to chase with Maltos’ 53-yarder late in the third quarter.

Calgary led 10-7 with five minutes left in the first half when backup quarterback Tommy Stevens — inserted for a short-yardage touchdown attempt — fumbled on the two-yard line and turned the ball over.

Fajardo then threw the ball out of Montreal’s end zone 50 yards to Charleston Rambo, but that drive stalled at midfield.

Montreal’s Mustafa Johnson recovered teammate Justin Sambu’s knock-down of a Maier pass and rumbled for the end zone as the clock ticked down on the half.

Stampeder running back Peyton Logan brought down the defensive tackle at the five-yard line to preserve Calgary’s three-point lead at the half.

Montreal’s Sean Thomas-Erlington blocked a Cody Grace punt and corralled the ball in the end zone early in the second quarter.

Instead of a touchdown, however, the Alouette was assessed a penalty for roughing the kicker.

But Walter Fletcher’s 55-yard dash up the middle set up Fajardo’s three-yard touchdown early in the quarter.

Maier threw four interceptions in a 35-20 home loss to the Elks on Labour Day, which prompted the quarterback shuffle.

Maier threw an 18-yard touchdown pass to Michel in the end zone Saturday on Calgary’s second possession.

The hosts didn’t convert Montreal’s fumble on the subsequent kickoff into a bigger lead.

James Letcher Jr. lost the ball on the Alouettes’ 23-yard line. The Stampeders settled for a 14-yard field goal by Paredes and a 10-point lead after the opening quarter.

PERPETUAL PAREDES

Calgary kicker Rene Paredes moved into a tie for second in all-time Stampeder games with his 224th on Saturday. He drew even with defensive back and kicker Larry Robinson (1961-75). Kicker Mark McLoughlin (1988-2003) is the all-time leader with 276.

INDIGENOUS NIGHT

Saturday’s Indigenous Night game was radio broadcast in the Blackfoot language by Butch Wolfleg and Jacob Leblanc, in addition to the customary English broadcast.

Stampeder players wore orange jerseys during warm-up and their helmets featured a special horse logo to honour and raise awareness of thousands of Indigenous children sent to residential schools.

UP NEXT

The Stampeders are home Friday to the Saskatchewan Roughriders. The Montreal Alouettes continue a run of three straight road games Saturday against the Ottawa Redblacks.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2024.

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