Canada's real estate market eases back into balance after summer slowdown - The Globe and Mail | Canada News Media
Connect with us

Real eState

Canada's real estate market eases back into balance after summer slowdown – The Globe and Mail

Published

 on


Open this photo in gallery:

Multiple for-sale and sold real estate signs in Mississauga, Ont., on May 24. Changing conditions have brought supply and demand back into balance after tightening surprisingly quickly in the spring, say experts.Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press

The Bank of Canada’s back-to-back interest rate hikes put a damper on the housing market rebound this summer, with sales edging down in July for the first time in six months.

Royal Bank of Canada economists Robert Hogue and Rachel Battaglia say extremely hot weather and massive forest fires may have held back activity in some regions as well.

New listings have now surged 24 per cent since April, they note.

These changing conditions have brought supply and demand back into balance after tightening surprisingly quickly in the spring, they add.

The spring rebound in sales across the country led to a bounce in prices in the Teranet-National Bank national composite house price index in July, according to National Bank of Canada economist Daren King.

The composite HPI, which covers 11 major markets in Canada, jumped 2.4 per cent from June to July on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

Mr. King notes that the rise was the second-highest increase in a single month after the gain recorded in July, 2006.

Halifax led the way with a 4.9-per-cent jump, followed by Hamilton with 4.4 per cent, Vancouver with 3.9 per cent and Toronto, 3.5 per cent.

Compared with July, 2022, the composite index slipped by 1.9 per cent, with Toronto down 2.1 per cent.

The Teranet-National Bank HPI tracks prices after they have been recorded at land registry offices, which means the numbers lag those of local real estate boards.

On a year-over-year basis, the largest declines were seen in St.-Catharine’s-Niagara with a 10.5-per-cent drop, Brantford with 9.08 per cent and London with 9.25 per cent.

Some smaller markets have seen sharp drops from their peak prices in the spring of last year.

Canada’s costly housing market needs a reality check

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Peterborough, Ont. index decreased 16.3 per cent from its peak in May, 2022. Windsor, Ont. fell 15.1 per cent in the same period. Abbotsford-Mission, B.C. slid 14.2 per cent from the index peak in April, 2022.

Mr. King says index prices could continue to rise in the third quarter, bolstered by strong population growth and tight supply.

After that, however, prices will likely face headwinds as recent interest rate increases hamper affordability and the economy loses some buoyancy, Mr. King cautions.

As for sales in July, the national picture shows a small dip of 0.7 per cent on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Saskatchewan, Quebec and Alberta saw stronger sales, Mr. King points out, but British Columbia and Ontario saw their upward trend reversed.

In the Toronto area, sales fell 8.7 per cent in July from June following an 8.5-per-cent decline the previous month.

On the supply side, Mr. King says, new listings rose 5.6 per cent nationally in July to mark a fourth consecutive monthly increase.

The number of months of inventory, which measures how long it would take to sell all available listings at the current pace of sales, rose to 3.2 in July from 3.1 in June. That’s higher than the trough of 1.7 during the pandemic, Mr. King says, but low on a historical basis.

Looking ahead, Mr. King says the growing impact of interest rate hikes and his expectation of a slower labour market may lead to a loss of momentum in real estate in the months ahead.

Record demographic growth, however, will likely prevent a significant drop in activity, he adds.

Farah Omran, senior economist at Bank of Nova Scotia, believes the spring sales rally was premature. Ms. Omran points to a widespread conviction in the real estate market that the Bank of Canada was finished with its rate hiking cycle and that cuts were imminent as a reason for the optimism.

The resurgence in some part fueled the central bank’s decision to resume tightening in June and adopt a more hawkish tone on the outlook for future hikes, she says, because the action undermined the efforts of policy makers to slow down economic activity and bring inflation back to the Bank’s 2 per cent target.

The Bank of Canada’s increases in June and July, along with the change in tone, pushed variable and fixed mortgage rates up, she adds, leading to higher borrowing costs and slower demand.

“We continue to believe that the bigger driver of the slowdown in housing activity in recent months is the uncertainty effect created by the Bank of Canada actions,” Ms. Omran says in a note to clients.

The Bank signalled that a pause is not a guarantee of an end, she adds, leading potential buyers to realize that the future of rates, inflation and economic activity remains uncertain.

The Bank’s message also helped to thwart speculative activity because investors are even more sensitive to the suggestion of higher borrowing costs for longer, which could in turn mean lower profits, Ms. Omran adds.

Adblock test (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

Real eState

Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

Published

 on

 

TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Real eState

Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

Published

 on

 

HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Real eState

Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

Published

 on

 

Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Exit mobile version