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Canada's top doctor says models are not 'crystal balls' as calls to release national projections grow – CBC.ca

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Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam says models that attempt to predict how many people could become infected and die from the coronavirus are not “crystal balls,” and that it’s more important to focus on what is happening with the outbreak in real time.

Tam said public health officials and the federal government use different models for planning purposes, but whether or not different projections will actually play out is highly dependent on the actions taken by governments and citizens.

“The use of modelling or other projections always describes a range of possibilities … they’re not actual crystal balls or real numbers,” said Tam. “That’s why we keep saying we need to act now and practise social distancing, self-isolation, hand hygiene, and all those measures, because the fate of those possibilities and scenarios is in our hands.”

The comments come as pressure mounts on the federal government to release national-level projections for the number of cases and deaths that could result from the pandemic that has already claimed the lives of over 200 Canadians while infecting over 13,000 more.

More provincial projections on the way

The Ontario government released a series of projections on Friday showing that between 3,000 and 15,000 people could die in the province from complications related to COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by coronavirus, over the course of two years.

The model also included predictions of when the province’s hospital capacity could become overloaded.

Before that, the B.C. government released projections showing that physical distancing measures had reduced the rate of increase in confirmed cases per day to 12 per cent from a possible 24 per cent, and that the province’s hospitals had the capacity to handle even a severe outbreak similar to what happened in China’s Hubei province..

Both Alberta and Quebec have committed to releasing projections some time next week.

Watch: Trudeau says government will continue to collect the necessary data to make COVID-19 predictions.

Trudeau says that the federal government will continue to collect the necessary data to make broader COVID-19 predictions. 0:25

The Public Health Agency of Canada released an online dashboard Saturday that presents a number of data points showing the current state of the outbreak across the country. The data shows the number of cases and deaths broken down by categories including age, sex, and location.

It’s the first time authoritative data has been customized and integrated in an interactive way, said Tam.

But the dashboard does not include projections into the future showing how COVID-19 might play out in the months ahead, including how many people will be hospitalized and how many could die across the county.

Trudeau non-committal on national projections

At his daily briefing, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would not commit to releasing national projections, but said the federal government would continue to collect and collate data from provinces to build a picture of what’s happening across the country

“We recognize that people want to know how bad this is going to get, how much longer it’s going to last,” said Trudeau.

“One thing is consistently clear — the measures that have been put in place by all orders of government from closing schools to staying home, are saving lives,” said Trudeau.

Trudeau said the government would continue to release up-to-date data on a daily basis and use it to inform decisions.

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RCMP investigating after three found dead in Lloydminster, Sask.

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LLOYDMINSTER, SASK. – RCMP are investigating the deaths of three people in Lloydminster, Sask.

They said in a news release Thursday that there is no risk to the public.

On Wednesday evening, they said there was a heavy police presence around 50th Street and 47th Avenue as officers investigated an “unfolding incident.”

Mounties have not said how the people died, their ages or their genders.

Multiple media reports from the scene show yellow police tape blocking off a home, as well as an adjacent road and alleyway.

The city of Lloydminster straddles the Alberta-Saskatchewan border.

Mounties said the three people were found on the Saskatchewan side of the city, but that the Alberta RCMP are investigating.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published on Sept. 12, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story; An earlier version said the three deceased were found on the Alberta side of Lloydminster.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Three injured in Kingston, Ont., assault, police negotiating suspect’s surrender

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KINGSTON, Ont. – Police in Kingston, Ont., say three people have been sent to hospital with life-threatening injuries after a violent daytime assault.

Kingston police say officers have surrounded a suspect and were trying to negotiate his surrender as of 1 p.m.

Spokesperson Const. Anthony Colangeli says police received reports that the suspect may have been wielding an edged or blunt weapon, possibly both.

Colangeli says officers were called to the Integrated Care Hub around 10:40 a.m. after a report of a serious assault.

He says the three victims were all assaulted “in the vicinity,” of the drop-in health centre, not inside.

Police have closed Montreal Street between Railway Street and Hickson Avenue.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Government intervention in Air Canada talks a threat to competition: Transat CEO

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Demands for government intervention in Air Canada labour talks could negatively affect airline competition in Canada, the CEO of travel company Transat AT Inc. said.

“The extension of such an extraordinary intervention to Air Canada would be an undeniable competitive advantage to the detriment of other Canadian airlines,” Annick Guérard told analysts on an earnings conference call on Thursday.

“The time and urgency is now. It is time to restore healthy competition in Canada,” she added.

Air Canada has asked the federal government to be ready to intervene and request arbitration as early as this weekend to avoid disruptions.

Comments on the potential Air Canada pilot strike or lock out came as Transat reported third-quarter financial results.

Guérard recalled Transat’s labour negotiations with its flight attendants earlier this year, which the company said it handled without asking for government intervention.

The airline’s 2,100 flight attendants voted 99 per cent in favour of a strike mandate and twice rejected tentative deals before approving a new collective agreement in late February.

As the collective agreement for Air Transat pilots ends in June next year, Guérard anticipates similar pressure to increase overall wages as seen in Air Canada’s negotiations, but reckons it will come out “as a win, win, win deal.”

“The pilots are preparing on their side, we are preparing on our side and we’re confident that we’re going to come up with a reasonable deal,” she told analysts when asked about the upcoming negotiations.

The parent company of Air Transat reported it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31. The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

It attributed reduced revenues to lower airline unit revenues, competition, industry-wide overcapacity and economic uncertainty.

Air Transat is also among the airlines facing challenges related to the recall of Pratt & Whitney turbofan jet engines for inspection and repair.

The recall has so far grounded six aircraft, Guérard said on the call.

“We have agreed to financial compensation for grounded aircraft during the 2023-2024 period,” she said. “Alongside this financial compensation, Pratt & Whitney will provide us with two additional spare engines, which we intend to monetize through a sell and lease back transaction.”

Looking ahead, the CEO said she expects consumer demand to remain somewhat uncertain amid high interest rates.

“We are currently seeing ongoing pricing pressure extending into the winter season,” she added. Air Transat is not planning on adding additional aircraft next year but anticipates stability.

“(2025) for us will be much more stable than 2024 in terms of fleet movements and operation, and this will definitely have a positive effect on cost and customer satisfaction as well,” the CEO told analysts.

“We are more and more moving away from all the disruption that we had to go through early in 2024,” she added.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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