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Canada's unemployment rate jumps to 6.1%, raising bets for June rate cut – Yahoo Canada Finance

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Canada’s labour market lost 2,200 jobs in March, and the unemployment rate increased to 6.1 per cent, according to Statistics Canada. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young) (The Canadian Press)

Canada’s labour market stalled in March, as it lost 2,200 jobs and the unemployment rate increased to 6.1 per cent, raising bets that the Bank of Canada will come off the sidelines and cut rates in June.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected a net gain of 25,000 jobs in March, and the unemployment rate to edge up from 5.8 per cent in February to 5.9 per cent.

The increase in unemployment, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, was driven by an increase of 60,000 people searching for work or on temporary layoff, Statistics Canada said on Friday. It’s the biggest monthly jump since Aug. 2022, and the highest rate since January 2022, when unemployment reached 6.5 per cent. Outside the COVID-19 pandemic, the last time Canada’s unemployment rate hit 6.1 per cent was Nov. 2017.

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“The cracks that had been emerging within the Canadian labour market suddenly got a lot wider,” CIBC economist Andrew Grantham wrote in a research note on Friday, noting that while the loss of 2,200 net jobs “isn’t a large decline given the volatility of monthly labour market data”, it came in contrast to Canada’s surging population.

“While markets had been pushing back expectations for a first Bank of Canada interest rate cut following strong GDP data to start the year, today’s labour force data should see them pulling those expectations forward again closer in line to our expectation for a first move in June.”

Expectations that the Bank of Canada will soon cut rates have started to rise in light of recent data. Canada’s inflation rate unexpectedly cooled to 2.8 per cent in February, marking the second month in a row that inflation hit within the central bank’s target range of between one and three per cent.

Money markets increased their bets for a rate cut in June to close to a 75 per cent probability, from 67 per cent before the numbers were released.

“Combined with the recent run of soft CPI prints, these numbers should have the Bank of Canada opening the door next week to easing policy around the middle of this year,” Desjardins managing director and head of macro strategy Royce Mendes wrote in a research note on Friday.

“Our view is still that the central bank will begin a forceful rate cutting cycle this year, which extends into next year, to offset the impacts on the economy from mortgage renewals and slower population growth.”

The Bank of Canada is set to make its next interest rate announcement Wednesday.

“Today’s report casts a cloud over the Canadian economy, but it is unlikely to change the Bank of Canada’s thinking when it meets next week,” TD Economics director and senior economist James Orlando wrote in a research note on Friday, noting that data outside the weak jobs report has been “quite strong” and “validated the Bank’s decision to remain patient with the start of rate cuts.”

“While it has afforded the central bank some extra time to wait to ensure inflation remains on its downward trajectory 2 per cent, markets are increasingly betting that the BoC will pull the trigger on its first rate cut in June.”

Wage growth increased in March, with average hourly wages up 5.1 per cent year-over-year, after showing signs of cooling in February with an annual increase of 4.9 per cent.

Statistics Canada said there were fewer people working in the accommodation and food services industry (down 23,000), wholesale and retail trade (down 27,000) and professional, scientific and technical services (down 20,000). Employment in healthcare and social assistance increased in March (up 40,000) as well as in the construction industry (up 15,000).

In February, Canada’s labour market added a net 40,700 jobs, more than what economists had expected, affirming the view that the Bank of Canada would continue to wait before loosening monetary policy.

With files from Reuters.

Alicja Siekierska is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow her on Twitter @alicjawithaj.

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Carry On Canadian Business. Carry On!

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2 days ago

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October 22, 2024

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business to start in Canada

Human Resources Officers must be very busy these days what with the general turnover of employees in our retail and business sectors. It is hard enough to find skilled people let alone potential employees willing to be trained. Then after the training, a few weeks go by then they come to you and ask for a raise. You refuse as there simply is no excess money in the budget and away they fly to wherever they come from, trained but not willing to put in the time to achieve that wanted raise.

I have had potentials come in and we give them a test to see if they do indeed know how to weld, polish or work with wood. 2-10 we hire, and one of those is gone in a week or two. Ask that they want overtime, and their laughter leaving the building is loud and unsettling. Housing starts are doing well but way behind because those trades needed to finish a project simply don’t come to the site, with delay after delay. Some people’s attitudes are just too funny. A recent graduate from a Ivy League university came in for an interview. The position was mid-management potential, but when we told them a three month period was needed and then they would make the big bucks they disappeared as fast as they arrived.

Government agencies are really no help, sending us people unsuited or unwilling to carry out the jobs we offer. Handing money over to staffing firms whose referrals are weak and ineffectual. Perhaps with the Fall and Winter upon us, these folks will have to find work and stop playing on the golf course or cottaging away. Tried to hire new arrivals in Canada but it is truly difficult to find someone who has a real identity card and is approved to live and work here. Who do we hire? Several years ago my father’s firm was rocking and rolling with all sorts of work. It was a summer day when the immigration officers arrived and 30+ employees hit the bricks almost immediately. The investigation that followed had threats of fines thrown at us by the officials. Good thing we kept excellent records, photos and digital copies. We had to prove the illegal documents given to us were as good as the real McCoy.

Restauranteurs, builders, manufacturers, finishers, trades-based firms, and warehousing are all suspect in hiring illegals, yet that becomes secondary as Toronto increases its minimum wage again bringing our payroll up another $120,000. Survival in Canada’s financial and business sectors is questionable for many. Good luck Chuck!. at least your carbon tax refund check should be arriving soon.

Steven Kaszab
Bradford, Ontario
skaszab@yahoo.ca

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Imperial to cut prices in NWT community after low river prevented resupply by barges

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October 22, 2024

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NORMAN WELLS, N.W.T. – Imperial Oil says it will temporarily reduce its fuel prices in a Northwest Territories community that has seen costs skyrocket due to low water on the Mackenzie River forcing the cancellation of the summer barge resupply season.

Imperial says in a Facebook post it will cut the air transportation portion that’s included in its wholesale price in Norman Wells for diesel fuel, or heating oil, from $3.38 per litre to $1.69 per litre, starting Tuesday.

The air transportation increase, it further states, will be implemented over a longer period.

It says Imperial is closely monitoring how much fuel needs to be airlifted to the Norman Wells area to prevent runouts until the winter road season begins and supplies can be replenished.

Gasoline and heating fuel prices approached $5 a litre at the start of this month.

Norman Wells’ town council declared a local emergency on humanitarian grounds last week as some of its 700 residents said they were facing monthly fuel bills coming to more than $5,000.

“The wholesale price increase that Imperial has applied is strictly to cover the air transportation costs. There is no Imperial profit margin included on the wholesale price. Imperial does not set prices at the retail level,” Imperial’s statement on Monday said.

The statement further said Imperial is working closely with the Northwest Territories government on ways to help residents in the near term.

“Imperial Oil’s decision to lower the price of home heating fuel offers immediate relief to residents facing financial pressures. This step reflects a swift response by Imperial Oil to discussions with the GNWT and will help ease short-term financial burdens on residents,” Caroline Wawzonek, Deputy Premier and Minister of Finance and Infrastructure, said in a news release Monday.

Wawzonek also noted the Territories government has supported the community with implementation of a fund supporting businesses and communities impacted by barge cancellations. She said there have also been increases to the Senior Home Heating Subsidy in Norman Wells, and continued support for heating costs for eligible Income Assistance recipients.

Additionally, she said the government has donated $150,000 to the Norman Wells food bank.

In its declaration of a state of emergency, the town said the mayor and council recognized the recent hike in fuel prices has strained household budgets, raised transportation costs, and affected local businesses.

It added that for the next three months, water and sewer service fees will be waived for all residents and businesses.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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U.S. vote has Canadian business leaders worried about protectionist policies: KPMG

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October 22, 2024

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TORONTO – A new report says many Canadian business leaders are worried about economic uncertainties related to the looming U.S. election.

The survey by KPMG in Canada of 735 small- and medium-sized businesses says 87 per cent fear the Canadian economy could become “collateral damage” from American protectionist policies that lead to less favourable trade deals and increased tariffs

It says that due to those concerns, 85 per cent of business leaders in Canada polled are reviewing their business strategies to prepare for a change in leadership.

The concerns are primarily being felt by larger Canadian companies and sectors that are highly integrated with the U.S. economy, such as manufacturing, automotive, transportation and warehousing, energy and natural resources, as well as technology, media and telecommunications.

Shaira Nanji, a KPMG Law partner in its tax practice, says the prospect of further changes to economic and trade policies in the U.S. means some Canadian firms will need to look for ways to mitigate added costs and take advantage of potential trade relief provisions to remain competitive.

Both presidential candidates have campaigned on protectionist policies that could cause uncertainty for Canadian trade, and whoever takes the White House will be in charge during the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in 2026.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 22, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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