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Canada’s unemployment rate rises to 5.8% as job gains fail to offset population surge

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Despite an uptick in the unemployment rate, the construction sector gained 16,000 jobs in November.Fred Lum/the Globe and Mail

Canada’s economy continues to generate jobs, but a massive influx of job seekers means the unemployment rate is drifting higher.

The country added almost 25,000 positions last month after an increase of 17,500 in October, Statistics Canada said Friday in a report. The gain was slightly stronger than expectations on Bay Street.

Yet the unemployment rate still ticked up to 5.8 per cent in November from 5.7 per cent in the previous month.

So far in 2023, the labour market has seen a net gain of about 430,000 positions – what is generally regarded as a robust year of job creation.

But the country is also growing at historically strong rates. Year to date, the population 15 years of age and older has risen by roughly 870,000, or 2.7 per cent, according to Statscan’s monthly labour survey.

And jobs are not being created at nearly the same pace at which newcomers are joining the labour force, so the unemployment rate is climbing – from 5 per cent at the outset of the year to the current 5.8 per cent.

“In a trend that we’re starting to get used to, employment rose, but slower than population growth,” said Brendon Bernard, senior economist at hiring site Indeed Canada, via e-mail. “Joblessness is still low by historical standards, but conditions have clearly shifted from the start of 2023.”

The labour market has softened a great deal in recent months. On Thursday, Statscan reported that job vacancies fell by about 40,000 in September and have tumbled 37 per cent since peak levels in 2022. The total number of vacant positions – roughly 632,000 – is the lowest since February, 2021.

The Bank of Canada has deliberately tried to take some steam out of the labour market with its inflation-busting campaign, which has seen the central bank raise its benchmark interest rate to 5 per cent from 0.25 per cent in early 2022.

It is widely expected to hold its key rate steady on Dec. 6, its final policy announcement of the year.

“As the lagged impacts of rate hikes continue to make their way through the economy, we expect further labour market weakness will drag down underlying inflationary pressures in the months to come,” wrote Royce Mendes, the head of macro strategy at Desjardins Securities, in a client note. “That should set the Bank of Canada up to begin trimming rates in the second quarter of next year.”

Friday’s Statscan report showed that average hourly wages rose 4.8 per cent last month on an annual basis, matching the increase in October. The Bank of Canada is closely watching wages for signs of inflationary pressure.

Total hours worked across the economy fell 0.7 per cent in November. This is a key metric for economic activity and portends a weak reading for gross domestic product that month.

Other details in the report were more encouraging. The number of private-sector employees rose by 38,000 last month, the first increase since June. Full-time positions jumped by nearly 60,000, offsetting a decline in part-time work.

Employment rose by about 28,000 in manufacturing and 16,000 in construction.

But other sectors are struggling to grow. Wholesale and retail trade posted a decline of nearly 27,000 positions in November, while there was a loss of roughly 18,000 jobs in finance, insurance and real estate. The latter industry has seen job losses for four consecutive months.

Statscan noted that unemployed people in November were more likely to have been laid off from their previous job as well than unemployed people in November, 2022. The agency also pointed out that younger Canadians (15 to 24) have experienced a sharper increase in unemployment than people in other age brackets.

Year to date, the number of unemployed people has increased by 197,000 to roughly 1.2 million. (Statscan considers someone unemployed if they are without a job and actively searching for work, are on temporary layoff or will start a job in the next four weeks.)

Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said in a research note that the current trend of rising employment but even stronger labour force growth should drive the unemployment rate up to between 6 per cent and 6.5 per cent in the first half of 2024.

“At that time, the labour market should be loose enough and inflation low enough to allow the Bank of Canada to start cutting interest rates in the second quarter of next year, which should help stabilize the labour market in the second half of the year,” he said.

 

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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