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Canada's working-age population is older than ever, StatsCan says – CBC News

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Canada’s working-age population is older than it has ever been, according to new census figures released Wednesday.

More than one in five working adults is now nearing retirement, says Statistics Canada — a demographic shift that will create significant challenges for the Canadian workforce in the coming decade.

Laurent Martel, director for the centre of demography at Statistics Canada, called it a “date with demographic destiny.”

“Canada is at a very special place right now,” she said. “There are very large implications of this situation and it is certainly one factor explaining the current labour shortages that Canada is experiencing.”

The Canadian population now has a larger share of people aged 55 to 64 than it does of those aged 15 to 24, the age at which people enter the workforce.

In 1966, there were 200 people aged 15 to 24 for every 100 Canadians aged 55 to 64, but that has now been flipped on its head. In 2021, there were only 81 people aged 15 to 24 for every 100 Canadians in the 55 to 64 age group.

“There are challenges associated with an older workforce, including knowledge transfer, retaining experienced employees and workforce renewal,” the agency said in its report. 

Statistics Canada says that this trend can be slowed through immigration but “an increase in immigration — even a large one — would not significantly curb this projected drop.”

The 2021 census says that while declining fertility rates and increased life expectancy are important factors, the single most significant driver of Canada’s aging population trend is the ongoing retirement of baby boomers (Canadians born between 1946 and 1965), which began in 2011.

Despite this news, Statistics Canada says Canada still has one of the youngest working-age populations in the G7 after the U.S. and the United Kingdom, with 15- to 64-year-olds making up 64.8 per cent of the population; in Japan, that demographic makes up less than 60 per cent of the population.

In the U.S., the slightly younger workforce is a result of a slightly higher fertility rate, while in the U.K., it is a combination of a higher fertility rate and a relatively smaller number of baby boomers, Statistics Canada said.

An aging population

It’s not just Canada’s workforce that is aging significantly — it’s the population as a whole, Statistics Canada said. 

From 2016 to 2021, the number of Canadians age 65 and older rose 18.3 per cent to seven million — the second-largest increase in 75 years, after the increase recorded from 2011 to 2016, which was a rise of more than 20 per cent. 

The seven million Canadians 65 and older make up 19 per cent of the population, up from 16.9 per cent at the time of the last census.

A closer look shows that the number of Canadians aged 85 and older rose almost 12 per cent from the time of the last census, while Canadians aged over 100 rose by more than 15 per cent. 

“Over the next 30 years, the number of persons aged 85 and older could triple from 861,000 to 2.7 million,” the agency said. 

Statistics Canada population projections indicate that by 2051, almost one-quarter of the population could be aged 65 and older, adding up to almost 12 million people.

The young and elderly in Canada

The age of Canada’s population is not just about the growing cohort of seniors. It’s also the declining growth rate among younger Canadians as the country’s fertility rate hit an all time low of 1.4 children per woman, Statistics Canada said. 

Between 2016 and 2021, the number of Canadians younger than 15 grew six times slower than the number of people 65 and older. The number of children under the age of 15 at the time of the 2021 census stood at six million, compared to seven million Canadians 65 and older.

The number of children under the age of five also fell from almost 1.9 million in 2016 to 1.83 million in 2021, a decline of more than 3.6 per cent.

The decline continues a trend first noted in the 2016 census when, for the first time, there were more Canadians over 65 than children under 15. The demographic gap has grown substantially, from just 96,000 then to just over a million by 2021. 

Statistics Canada says that if current trends continue, by 2051 that gap will widen to 4.6 million, with 12 million Canadians over the age of 65 and only 7.4 million children under 15.

Regional differences

The demographic differ between regions — the Prairie provinces and the territories have younger populations while Quebec and the Atlantic provinces have older populations on average.

In Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta, children under 15 continue to outnumber Canadians aged 65 and older, largely due to a higher fertility rate.

Population projections for Manitoba and Alberta indicate that Canadians aged 65 and older will not outnumber children under 15 until 2031. In Saskatchewan, which has the highest proportion of children under the age of 15, older Canadians will not outnumber children until 2036.

In the territories, Nunavut has the highest percentage of children under 15 in the country at more than 32 per cent, followed by the Northwest Territories at almost 21 per cent. The Yukon is slightly lower at 17 per cent. 

Newfoundland and Labrador has the lowest share of children in Canada at 13.4 per cent, followed by Nova Scotia at 14.1 per cent and New Brunswick and B.C., which are tied at 14.3 per cent.

Questions on gender

For the first time, this census included questions on gender that allowed cisgender, transgender and non-binary individuals to report their gender.

Statistics Canada says that Canada is the first country to collect and publish data on gender diversity in a national census.

Of the almost 30.5 million people in Canada aged 15 and older living in private households in May 2021, Statistics Canada says 59,460 identified as transgender and 41,355 identified as non-binary, accounting for 0.33 per cent of the population in this age group.

Other highlights from census 2021

  • The COVID-19 pandemic slowed population growth in all age groups, but did not significantly affect population aging.
  • Small and large urban centres have younger populations on average, with Canadians 65 and older making up 18.2 per cent of the urban population — compared to rural areas, where older Canadians account for 23.2 per cent of the population on average.
  • Not all urban centres are the same. In Trois-Rivières 25.7 per cent of the population is 65 and older; in Calgary, it’s 13.5 per cent. 
  • Working-age people (those aged 15 to 64) account for three-quarters of the population of urban downtown areas, compared to the national average of 64.8 per cent. 
  • The number of apartments in high-rise buildings increased at more than double the rate of the total number of private dwellings between 2016 and 2021 — 14.7 per cent, compared to 6.4 per cent for all private dwellings.
  • In British Columbia, the number of high-rise apartments grew more than five times faster (24.8 per cent ) than the number of single-detached houses, which grew by 4.3 per cent.

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Looking for the next mystery bestseller? This crime bookstore can solve the case

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WINNIPEG – Some 250 coloured tacks pepper a large-scale world map among bookshelves at Whodunit Mystery Bookstore.

Estonia, Finland, Japan and even Fenwick, Ont., have pins representing places outside Winnipeg where someone has ordered a page-turner from the independent bookstore that specializes in mystery and crime fiction novels.

For 30 years, the store has been offering fans of Agatha Christie’s Hercule Poirot or Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes a place to get lost in whodunits both old and new.

Jack and Wendy Bumsted bought the shop in the Crescentwood neighbourhood in 2007 from another pair of mystery lovers.

The married couple had been longtime customers of the store. Wendy Bumsted grew up reading Perry Mason novels while her husband was a historian with vast knowledge of the crime fiction genre.

At the time, Jack Bumsted was retiring from teaching at the University of Manitoba when he was looking for his next venture.

“The bookstore came up and we bought it, I think, within a week,” Wendy Bumsted said in an interview.

“It never didn’t seem like a good idea.”

In the years since the Bumsteds took ownership, the family has witnessed the decline in mail-order books, the introduction of online retailers, a relocation to a new space next to the original, a pandemic and the death of beloved co-owner Jack Bumsted in 2020.

But with all the changes that come with owning a small business, customers continue to trust their next mystery fix will come from one of the shelves at Whodunit.

Many still request to be called about books from specific authors, or want to be notified if a new book follows their favourite format. Some arrive at the shop like clockwork each week hoping to get suggestions from Wendy Bumsted or her son on the next big hit.

“She has really excellent instincts on what we should be getting and what we should be promoting,” Micheal Bumsted said of his mother.

Wendy Bumsted suggested the store stock “Thursday Murder Club,” the debut novel from British television host Richard Osman, before it became a bestseller. They ordered more copies than other bookstores in Canada knowing it had the potential to be a hit, said Michael Bumsted.

The store houses more than 18,000 new and used novels. That’s not including the boxes of books that sit in Wendy Bumsted’s tiny office, or the packages that take up space on some of the only available seating there, waiting to be added to the inventory.

Just as the genre has evolved, so has the Bumsteds’ willingness to welcome other subjects on their shelves — despite some pushback from loyal customers and initially the Bumsted patriarch.

For years, Jack Bumsted refused to sell anything outside the crime fiction genre, including his own published books. Instead, he would send potential buyers to another store, but would offer to sign the books if they came back with them.

Wendy Bumsted said that eventually changed in his later years.

Now, about 15 per cent of the store’s stock is of other genres, such as romance or children’s books.

The COVID-19 pandemic forced them to look at expanding their selection, as some customers turned to buying books through the store’s website, which is set up to allow purchasers to get anything from the publishers the Bumsteds have contracts with.

In 2019, the store sold fewer than 100 books online. That number jumped to more than 3,000 in 2020, as retailers had to deal with pandemic lockdowns.

After years of running a successful mail-order business, the store was able to quickly adapt when it had to temporarily shut its doors, said Michael Bumsted.

“We were not a store…that had to figure out how to get books to people when they weren’t here.”

He added being a community bookstore with a niche has helped the family stay in business when other retailers have struggled. Part of that has included building lasting relationships.

“Some people have put it in their wills that their books will come to us,” said Wendy Bumsted.

Some of those collections have included tips on traveling through Asia in the early 2000s or the history of Australian cricket.

Micheal Bumsted said they’ve had to learn to be patient with selling some of these more obscure titles, but eventually the time comes for them to find a new home.

“One of the great things about physical books is that they can be there for you when you are ready for them.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published on Sept. 15, 2024.



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Labour Minister praises Air Canada, pilots union for avoiding disruptive strike

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MONTREAL – Canada’s labour minister is praising both Air Canada and the union representing about 5,200 of its pilots for averting a work stoppage that would have disrupted travel for hundreds of thousands of passengers.

Steven MacKinnon’s comments came in a statement shared to social media shortly after Canada’s largest air carrier announced it had reached a tentative labour deal with the Air Line Pilots Association.

MacKinnon thanked both sides and federal mediators, saying the airline and its pilots approached negotiations with “seriousness and a resolve to get a deal.”

The tentative agreement averts a strike or lockout that could have begun as early as Wednesday for Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge, with flight cancellations expected before then.

The airline now says flights will continue as normal while union members vote on the tentative four-year contract.

Air Canada had called on the federal government to intervene in the dispute, but Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Friday that would only happen if it became clear no negotiated agreement was possible.

This report from The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:AC)

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As plant-based milk becomes more popular, brands look for new ways to compete

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When it comes to plant-based alternatives, Canadians have never had so many options — and nowhere is that choice more abundantly clear than in the milk section of the dairy aisle.

To meet growing demand, companies are investing in new products and technology to keep up with consumer tastes and differentiate themselves from all the other players on the shelf.

“The product mix has just expanded so fast,” said Liza Amlani, co-founder of the Retail Strategy Group.

She said younger generations in particular are driving growth in the plant-based market as they are consuming less dairy and meat.

Commercial sales of dairy milk have been weakening for years, according to research firm Mintel, likely in part because of the rise of plant-based alternatives — even though many Canadians still drink dairy.

The No. 1 reason people opt for plant-based milk is because they see it as healthier than dairy, said Joel Gregoire, Mintel’s associate director for food and drink.

“Plant-based milk, the one thing about it — it’s not new. It’s been around for quite some time. It’s pretty established,” said Gregoire.

Because of that, it serves as an “entry point” for many consumers interested in plant-based alternatives to animal products, he said.

Plant-based milk consumption is expected to continue growing in the coming years, according to Mintel research, with more options available than ever and more consumers opting for a diet that includes both dairy and non-dairy milk.

A 2023 report by Ernst & Young for Protein Industries Canada projected that the plant-based dairy market will reach US$51.3 billion in 2035, at a compound annual growth rate of 9.5 per cent.

Because of this growth opportunity, even well-established dairy or plant-based companies are stepping up their game.

It’s been more than three decades since Saint-Hyacinthe, Que.-based Natura first launched a line of soy beverages. Over the years, the company has rolled out new products to meet rising demand, and earlier this year launched a line of oat beverages that it says are the only ones with a stamp of approval from Celiac Canada.

Competition is tough, said owner and founder Nick Feldman — especially from large American brands, which have the money to ensure their products hit shelves across the country.

Natura has kept growing, though, with a focus on using organic ingredients and localized production from raw materials.

“We’re maybe not appealing to the mass market, but we’re appealing to the natural consumer, to the organic consumer,” Feldman said.

Amlani said brands are increasingly advertising the simplicity of their ingredient lists. She’s also noticing more companies offering different kinds of products, such as coffee creamers.

Companies are also looking to stand out through eye-catching packaging and marketing, added Amlani, and by competing on price.

Besides all the companies competing for shelf space, there are many different kinds of plant-based milk consumers can choose from, such as almond, soy, oat, rice, hazelnut, macadamia, pea, coconut and hemp.

However, one alternative in particular has enjoyed a recent, rapid ascendance in popularity.

“I would say oat is the big up-and-coming product,” said Feldman.

Mintel’s report found the share of Canadians who say they buy oat milk has quadrupled between 2019 and 2023 (though almond is still the most popular).

“There seems to be a very nice marriage of coffee and oat milk,” said Feldman. “The flavour combination is excellent, better than any other non-dairy alternative.”

The beverage’s surge in popularity in cafés is a big part of why it’s ascending so quickly, said Gregoire — its texture and ability to froth makes it a good alternative for lattes and cappuccinos.

It’s also a good example of companies making a strong “use case” for yet another new entrant in a competitive market, he said.

Amid the long-standing brands and new entrants, there’s another — perhaps unexpected — group of players that has been increasingly investing in plant-based milk alternatives: dairy companies.

For example, Danone has owned the Silk and So Delicious brands since an acquisition in 2014, and long-standing U.S. dairy company HP Hood LLC launched Planet Oat in 2018.

Lactalis Canada also recently converted its facility in Sudbury, Ont., to manufacture its new plant-based Enjoy! brand, with beverages made from oats, almonds and hazelnuts.

“As an organization, we obviously follow consumer trends, and have seen the amount of interest in plant-based products, particularly fluid beverages,” said Mark Taylor, president and CEO of Lactalis Canada, whose parent company Lactalis is the largest dairy products company in the world.

The facility was a milk processing plant for six decades, until Lactalis Canada began renovating it in 2022. It now manufactures not only the new brand, but also the company’s existing Sensational Soy brand, and is the company’s first dedicated plant-based facility.

“We’re predominantly a dairy company, and we’ll always predominantly be a dairy company, but we see these products as complementary,” said Taylor.

It makes sense that major dairy companies want to get in on plant-based milk, said Gregoire. The dairy business is large — a “cash cow,” if you will — but not really growing, while plant-based products are seeing a boom.

“If I’m looking for avenues of growth, I don’t want to be left behind,” he said.

Gregoire said there’s a potential for consumers to get confused with so many options, which is why it’s so important for brands to find a way to differentiate themselves, whether it’s with taste, health, or how well the drink froths for a latte.

Competition in a more crowded market is challenging, but Taylor believes it results in better products for consumers.

“It keeps you sharp, and it forces you to be really good at what you’re doing. It drives innovation,” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.



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