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Canadian banks to provide financial update in Q4 results ahead of possible recession

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Canadian banks are set to reveal how they’re faring in the lead up to a possible recession as they report quarterly earnings this week.

As central banks raise interest rates to slow inflation, economic fears have held bank stocks back compared with the overall market, so analysts will be looking to see how well set up the sector is before an expected slowdown next year.

Starting with Scotiabank reporting on Tuesday, the results will cover the three months ending Oct. 31. During that period, the Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate twice, bringing its key interest rate to 3.75 per cent. The central bank is expected to hike rates again at its last decision of the year on Dec. 7.

Key questions for analysts will be on how much banks are profiting from their loans, measured in one way by the net interest margin, and what the chances are that some won’t be able to pay those loans back, measured by how much money banks are setting aside for potentially bad loans.

The core business of lending has become more important in recent quarters as the hit to the stock market has led to a retreat in profits for the wealth management side while the capital markets business of raising money for companies has also slowed over economic concerns but is starting to pick up.

Rising interest rates have been a major source of pressure for equities, though November has so far shown good gains. Interest rates have also slowed the real estate market and mortgage demand, with home sales down 36 per cent in October compared with a year earlier, but banks have also been able to profit from those rising rates as shown by their net interest margins.

“Margin expansion has been one of the more exciting developments in the banking space, partially offsetting recessionary concerns,” said National Bank analyst Gabriel Dechaine in a note.

Provisions on potentially bad loans will be another differentiator, especially since complex accounting rules make the measures an ongoing source of variable versus analyst consensus, said Scotiabank analyst Meny Grauman in a note.

The financial buffers started creeping up last quarter after an extended stretch of banks winding down what they built up during the early part of the pandemic. While they will likely go up further this quarter, it’s not a sign of concerns in credit conditions, which remain “pristine,” said Grauman.

“The bottom line is that those looking for proof of a recession in this latest batch of bank results will be sorely disappointed once again.”

He pointed to the latest jobs report that showed a big bounce back in employment after a summer lull, and a surge in wage growth, as a big support for the economy and bank performance.

Given this is the last quarter of the year, analysts will also be pushing to see how banks see these key trends performing next year, said RBC analyst Darko Mihelic in a note.

“Being year-end, it is usually a good time to press for guidance. Are we at or near peak net interest margins and peak loan growth? How high do provisions for credit losses go from here?”

He said earnings per share will likely dip slightly from the third quarter but be up a year earlier, with strong loan growth from last year despite the dip in mortgages as commercial loans have remained strong. For next year, Mihelic said he’s conservatively expecting earnings per share growth of 2.2 per cent, picking up to 4.4 per cent in 2024 as loan growth resumes and other factors stabilize.

One thing analysts aren’t expected to hear about from the banks is the question of who might buy HSBC’s Canadian division, which could go for something in the realm of $10 billion after announcing in early October that it was shopping the asset around.

“We do not expect any talk of HSBC on the quarterly calls, but it is the elephant in the room and certainly has capital implications for the winner,” said Grauman.

RBC and National Bank report on Wednesday, while BMO, CIBC and TD all report Thursday.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 27, 2022.

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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