Canadian consumer confidence rebounded in December from a two-month slide, as financial markets surged at the end of last year and sentiment around real estate jumped to the strongest since 2017.
The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index, a composite gauge based on weekly telephone polling, ended the year at 56.5, closer to historical averages and up sharply from a November reading of 54.8 that was the lowest in 10 months.
The pick-up in consumer sentiment suggests the nation’s economy will start 2020 on a better footing after a poor showing to end 2019. Canada has posted a string of poor results — including weak retail spending — indicating the economy barely eked out growth beyond one per cent on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter. Yet, most economists expect somewhat better numbers in the first six months of this year, with growth forecast at 1.4 per cent in the first quarter.
Every week, Nanos Research calls 250 Canadians for their views on personal finances, job security and their outlook for both the economy and real estate prices. Bloomberg publishes four-week rolling averages of the 1,000 telephone responses.
More Canadians said their personal finances and job security have improved over the past month. Households are also more confident about the value of real estate, with 45 per cent of Canadians predicting home values will rise. That’s the highest month-end reading for that question since April 2017 and is consistent with a recent rebound in housing markets nationally.
Canadians, however, remain downbeat about the outlook for the economy, with less than 15 per cent of respondents saying the next six months will bring a stronger economy.
Better Start
Even with the slump in confidence in October and November — which coincided with a divisive federal election — the data show Canadians are heading into 2020 more confident than at the start of last year, when the global economy was reeling from financial market turmoil at the end of 2018.
Compared with the start of 2019, there is now more certainty around the ratification of the new North American free trade agreement, a relatively more tranquil political environment in Canada than elsewhere and a stabilization of interest rates, according to Nik Nanos, chairman of Nanos Research.
“2020 looks like it going to start off where there is less to be worried about compared to the beginning of 2019,” Nanos said in a telephone interview. “You roll up all these things and Canadians just feel a little better than at the beginning of 2019.”
The most recent survey results continue to suggest sentiment is divided across the country. Quebeckers lead the charts with the highest confidence, while sentiment in the energy-rich prairies region lags.
Other Highlights
• In the final week of 2019, 18.2 per cent of Canadians said their personal finances had improved over the past year, up from 14.8 per cent at the end of November
• After slumping in November, job security levels picked up in December, with 66.7 per cent of Canadians describing their employment as at least somewhat secure
• While still recording the lowest confidence levels in Canada, households in the prairie provinces posted a small uptick in sentiment last month
OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.
However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.
The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.
The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.
The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.
In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.
The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.
Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.
In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.
It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.
The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.
The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.
Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.
Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.
Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.
