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Economy

Canadian dollar cuts monthly decline in half as stocks rally

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The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, clawing back half of its January decline, as oil prices rose and equity markets globally rebounded after a volatile start to the year.

The loonie was trading 0.5% higher at 1.2695 to the greenback, or 78.77 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.2683 to 1.2777.

“The rally in CAD is being driven by the broader market’s tone, which is suggestive of risk appetite,” said Eric Theoret, global macro strategist at Manulife Investment Management.

“Oil prices and yield spreads remain supportive of the Canadian dollar.”

Stocks rallied as traders put aside concerns about inflation and the crisis in Ukraine to dip back in, but global equities were still headed for their worst January since 2016.

A supply shortage and political tensions helped oil prices notch their biggest monthly gain in almost a year. U.S. crude prices settled 1.5% higher on Monday at $88.15 a barrel.

Since the start of January, the loonie has weakened 0.5% as the prospect of faster interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve bolstered the greenback against a basket of major currencies.

Still, speculators have raised their bullish bets on the Canadian dollar to the highest since July last year, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will appear on Wednesday before the Senate banking committee. Last Wednesday, the central bank left its benchmark interest rate on hold at a record low of 0.25% but signaled that hikes are coming.

Canada’s jobs report for January, due on Friday, could provide further clues on the outlook for interest rates.

The Canadian 10-year yield eased 1.5 basis points to 1.744%.

 

(Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and Chizu Nomiyama)

Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales fell 1.3% to $69.4B in August

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.

The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.

The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.

Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.

Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.

Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

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