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Canadian dollar dips as Fed’s new guidance weighs

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The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as investors continued to take in the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish guidance, with the loonie giving back some of this week’s gains.

The loonie was trading 0.1% lower at 1.2323 to the greenback, or 81.15 U.S. cents. It has gained 1.1% since the start of the week after declining sharply last week.

“It could be more consolidative, a bit choppy in the short term here as markets continue to digest last week’s FOMC,” said Erik Nelson, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York.

“We’d expect some downward pressure on the loonie in the short term.”

In a surprise move, the Fed last week projected it would begin hiking rates in 2023 rather than in 2024. Investors have been struggling to interpret signals from the central bank about how hot it is willing to let inflation run.

Canada is a major producer of commodities, including oil and copper, which have benefited from Fed stimulus.

Copper fell for the first time this week, pressured by mixed signals from the Fed, but oil settled 0.3% higher at $73.30 a barrel.

Confidence among Canadian exporters has surged to its highest level in more than 20 years, amid mounting optimism that a sustained global economic recovery is underway, a survey by Export Development Canada showed.

Preliminary data for May from Statistics Canada showed factory sales rising 1% from April and wholesale trade up 1.1%.

Canadian government bond yields eased across a flatter curve. The 10-year was down about 1 basis point at 1.414% but holding well above the 3-1/2-month low it hit last Friday at 1.364%.

(Reporting by Fergal Smith; editing by Jonathan Oatis and Dan Grebler)

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PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

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Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales fell 1.3% to $69.4B in August

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.

The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.

The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.

Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.

Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.

Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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