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Canadian dollar ends weekly win streak

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The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as oil prices fell and data showed U.S. consumer inflation heating up in April, with the loonie ending its longest streak of weekly gains since 2016.

The loonie was trading 0.1% lower at 1.2078 to the greenback, or 82.80 U.S. cents, having traded in a range of 1.2063 to 1.2120. It was also down 0.1% for the week, after having climbed for eight straight weeks.

“We’ve had a really strong run in the Canadian dollar in the last one or two months,” said Rahim Madhavji, president at KnightsbridgeFX.com. “It’s hard to see what the next catalyst for the loonie is going to be going forward.”

Speculators have cut their bullish bets on the Canadian dollar for the first time in six weeks, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed. As of May 25, net long positions had dipped to 44,811 contracts from 46,112 in the prior week.

U.S. consumer prices accelerated in the year to April, with a measure of underlying inflation blowing past the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

The data is “potentially going to put pressure on the Fed to act sooner rather than later” to tighten policy, Madhavji said.

Canadian GDP data for the first quarter is due on Tuesday, with economists expecting an annualized increase of 7%. The data could help guide expectations for the Bank of Canada policy outlook.

The BoC is likely to cut its bond-buying program again this year, possibly as soon as July, as provinces ease curbs to contain the coronavirus pandemic and inflation pressures build, analysts said.

The price of oil, one of Canada‘s major exports, settled 0.8% lower at $66.32 a barrel, giving back some of this week’s rally, while Canada‘s 10-year yield was nearly unchanged at 1.489%.

 

(Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Will Dunham)

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Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

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Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales fell 1.3% to $69.4B in August

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.

The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.

The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.

Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.

Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.

Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

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