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Canadian dollar gains as investors cheer higher commodity prices

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The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, moving closer to a recent 6-year high, as oil prices rose and investors awaited U.S. inflation data on Friday that could provide clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

The price of oil, one of Canada‘s major exports, settled nearly 1% higher at $66.85 a barrel as strong U.S. economic data offset investors’ concerns about the potential for a rise in Iranian supplies.

“As the pandemic recedes, and the global economy reopens, Canada will be in a good spot to benefit from commodity and oil prices that are expected to remain firm going forward,” said Ronald Simpson, managing director, global currency analysis at Action Economics.

“USD-CAD remains in sell-the-rally mode,” Simpson added.

The Canadian dollar was trading 0.4% higher at 1.2066 to the greenback, or 82.88 U.S. cents. Last week, it touched its strongest level since May 2015 at 1.2013, helped by the Bank of Canada‘s shift in April to a more hawkish stance.

The central bank is likely to cut its bond-buying program again this year, possibly as soon as July, as provinces ease curbs to contain the coronavirus pandemic and inflation pressures build, analysts said.

Economists expect data on Friday to show U.S. core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) prices jumping in April. Fed officials have downplayed concerns about inflation prompting a knee-jerk policy response but some have acknowledged that the time to talk about policy changes might be approaching.

Canadian government bond yields were higher across a steeper curve, tracking the move in U.S. Treasuries after a report saying President Joe Biden will announce on Friday a $6-trillion budget for 2022.

Canada‘s 10-year bond yield rose 3.9 basis points to 1.489%, having rebounded from its lowest intraday level since mid-April on Wednesday at 1.444%.

 

(Reporting by Fergal Smith; editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

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PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

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Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales fell 1.3% to $69.4B in August

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.

The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.

The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.

Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.

Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.

Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

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