OTTAWA — The Canadian job market bounced back in December to post a gain of 35,200 jobs and reverse some of the losses in November which saw the biggest monthly loss since the financial crisis.
The increase in the number of jobs came as the unemployment rate also fell to 5.6 per cent compared with 5.9 per cent in November when the country lost 71,200 jobs.
Statistics Canada said Jan. 10 the gain in jobs came as the number of private sector employees rose by 56,900, offset by a loss of 21,500 public sector jobs. The number of self-employed fell by 200.
Full-time employment rose by 38,400 jobs, while the number of part-time jobs fell by 3,200.
Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said the jobs report will allow the Bank of Canada to breathe easier, as the job market finished 2019 on a solid note following some weakness in October and November.
“This should help ease the Bank of Canada’s concern at least that the labour market wasn’t really breaking down at the end of 2019,” he said.
Kavcic said the job losses in November were a “recession-like” figure, but the other economic data didn’t corroborate the report.
The jobs report is notoriously volatile, but the trend in the second half of last year was softer than the start of the year.
Kavcic said he doesn’t expect to see a return to the job gains seen in the first half of last year after the weakness in the fourth quarter of 2019.
“We’re not going to be getting 30,000 or 40,000 jobs per month like we saw through the first half of 2019, we’re probably going to be looking at more something like 15,000, maybe high teens in terms of monthly job growth,” he said.
The Canadian economy added 320,300 jobs for all of 2019, including 282,800 full-time positions and 37,500 part-time jobs.
Sherry Cooper, chief economist at Dominion Lending Centres, said the December employment report confirms the Bank of Canada’s current policy stance that despite headwinds, the economy remains relatively resilient and that further interest rate cuts are unnecessary.
“This assessment can change on a dime in today’s uncertain world, but for now, the central bank is likely to remain on hold,” she said.
The Bank of Canada is set to make its next interest rate decision and release its updated monetary policy report on Jan. 22.
The central bank has kept its key interest rate on hold at 1.75 per cent for more than a year even as many of its international peers, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, have moved to cut rates and loosen monetary policy in response to weakness in the global economy.
TD Bank senior economist Brian DePratto said the jobs report Jan. 10 was consistent with recent comments by Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz.
“Some aspects of the jobs data, such as wages, have been performing well, while others, such as hours, have not been.
“It seems we’ll have to wait for this month’s monetary policy report to see where the governor and his team land in interpreting these and other recent trends.”
The overall gain in jobs in December came as goods-producing sector added 15,700 jobs, helped by an increase of 17,000 jobs in the construction industry.
Meanwhile, the services-producing sector added 19,400 jobs as the accommodation and food services industry gained 24,900 jobs.
Regionally, Ontario and Quebec led the job gains.
Ontario added 25,100 jobs in December, boosted by gains in construction and public administration. Quebec added 21,100 jobs in the month, helped by gains in the accommodation and food services sector as well as manufacturing.
Newfoundland and Labrador lost 5,000 jobs in December.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.
Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.
Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”
The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.
Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.
“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”
Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.
Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.
Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.
B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.
The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.
“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”
Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.
Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.
The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.
Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.
Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.
Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.
NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.
But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.
He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.
Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.
Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.
