Canadian economy grows 3.3% in second quarter, but momentum slowing: What you need to know - Financial Post | Canada News Media
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Canadian economy grows 3.3% in second quarter, but momentum slowing: What you need to know – Financial Post

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Statistics Canada estimates GDP shrank 0.1% in July

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Canada’s economy grew in the second quarter, but momentum is slowing as the Bank of Canada’s aggressive interest-rate hikes take some of the heat out of the economy.

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Gross domestic product (GDP) from April to June increased at an annual rate of 3.3 per cent, compared to 3.1 per cent for the first quarter of 2022, Statistics Canada said on Aug. 31. The agency’s monthly estimate for July showed a contraction of 0.1 per cent.

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Here’s what you need to know:

Is 3.3 per cent growth considered good?

The Bank of Canada in its July Monetary Policy Report last month forecast that output would grow by four per cent, while Bay Street economists expected the economy to grow by 4.4 per cent.

Statistics Canada’s data showed Canada’s economy expanded in the face of rising inflation, a tight labour market and excess demand. But its negative reading for July, along with forecasters’ missed estimate, indicate growth is waning and could further weaken in the last half of the year.

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Still, output is higher than the central bank’s “potential” growth rate of two per cent, the threshold at which it believes the economy can expand without fuelling inflation.

“The Q2 GDP reading was likely the last ‘above-trend’ increase of this economic cycle. The bulk of GDP growth in Q2 came earlier in the quarter,” Nathan Janzen, assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada, said in a note. “We continue to expect growth to be slower over the second half of the year with the economy slipping into a ‘moderate’ recession in 2023.”

What drove the growth?

Despite inflation being at levels not seen in decades, household spending was one of the biggest contributors to economic growth. In the second quarter, annualized expenditures rose 9.7 per cent amid increased spending on clothing and footwear. That’s partly because rising wages boosted household incomes. Overall disposable household income increased at a quarterly rate of one per cent.

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The savings rate fell to 6.2 per cent, on a quarterly basis, from 9.5 per cent in the first quarter. But household net savings are still more than double what they were at the end of 2019. That, combined with rising incomes and an economy free from COVID-19 lockdown restrictions, led more people to travel and dine out.

Business investment also played a role. Amid strong consumer spending and high prices for commodities, more businesses stockpiled inventories, the biggest contributor to output at $47 billion. Demand for services, especially travel, helped bolster spending on machinery and equipment, up nearly 14 per cent on an annualized basis.

Nominal GDP, which doesn’t strip out inflation, rose close to 18 per cent, annualized, in the quarter.

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“Recall that nominal GDP drives things like personal income, corporate profits and government revenues,” Bank of Montreal chief economist Douglas Porter said in a note. “For a Bank of Canada that is laser-focused on inflation, the moderate miss in real GDP is almost meaningless when nominal spending is barreling ahead … deep into double-digit terrain.”

A slowdown in other sectors of the economy indicate the central bank’s rate hikes are beginning to work. For example, annualized investment in the housing market dropped more than 27 per cent in the quarter.

Trade also dragged on growth, with imports up more than 30 per cent, annualized, while exports only grew at an annual rate of 11 per cent.

What does it mean for inflation?

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GDP expanded at a slower rate than forecasters expected, but the economy is still too heated for the Bank of Canada’s liking.

Governor Tiff Macklem kicked off an aggressive rate-tightening cycle in March to stamp out rapid price growth. Last month, the Governing Council issued a rare, 100-basis-point increase after the consumer price index reached 8.1 per cent in June. CPI receded to 7.6 per cent in July.

But we should expect more rate hikes. The central bank is “determined” to bring an end to high inflation and rebalance supply and demand, Macklem wrote in a column for the National Post. “We know our job is not done yet — it won’t be done until inflation gets back to the two-per-cent target.”

Markets expect the Bank of Canada to increase the interest rate by 75 basis points in September.

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What’s the outlook for the third quarter?

With July’s negative reading, economists are bracing for softer growth in the second half of the year.

“It now looks likely that GDP growth will slow to a little less than one per cent annualized this quarter, leaving it well below the bank’s forecast of two per cent,” Capital Economics senior economist Stephen Brown said by email.

“The bottom line is that the economy is slowing faster than most forecasters expected although, with the labour market still very tight and wage growth likely to accelerate, we doubt that this will be enough to stop the Bank of Canada from raising its policy rate by another one-per-cent point over the next two meetings.”

• Email: bbharti@postmedia.com | Twitter: 

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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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