Canadian economy returns to growth, with heavy assist from U.S. | Canada News Media
Connect with us

Economy

Canadian economy returns to growth, with heavy assist from U.S.

Published

 on

Open this photo in gallery:

Crude oil, and other petroleum products, is transported in rail tanker cars near Medicine Hat, Alta,, on Sept. 6, 2018. Statscan said fourth-quarter GDP growth was driven by exports of crude oil and bitumen, among other products.Larry MacDougal/STRLMD

The Canadian economy is nearing a soft landing as growth turned positive to finish 2023, allowing the country to skirt a recession in what was otherwise a sluggish year of activity.

Real gross domestic product rose at an annualized pace of 1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, rebounding from a decline of 0.5 per cent in the third quarter, Statistics Canada said on Thursday. In a preliminary estimate, the agency said real GDP jumped another 0.4 per cent in January, helped by the end of public-sector strikes in Quebec.

The economy has slowed markedly since the Bank of Canada implemented a rapid series of interest-rate hikes to curb demand and bring inflation under control. Outside of 2020, when the pandemic slammed the economy, 2023 was the slowest year for GDP growth since 2016.

Canada’s economic performance looks even weaker after accounting for the strongest population growth in decades, resulting in a decline in per-capita output.

But in aggregate, the economy is managing to eke out growth, boosting the odds that central bankers will pull off a rare soft landing – a situation in which inflation is brought to heel, but without a significant rise in unemployment.

The annual inflation rate has more than halved to 2.9 per cent, taking it ever closer to the Bank of Canada’s 2-per-cent target. Financial analysts expect the central bank to start lowering interest rates around the middle of the year.

“The Canadian economy showed some life in the final quarter of 2024,” James Orlando, senior economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, wrote in a client note. Even so, “the narrative on the Canadian economy remains the same: High interest rates are weighing on economic growth.”

Canada seems to be getting a big boost from a strong U.S. economy. Exports of goods and services rose at an annualized pace of 5.6 per cent in the fourth quarter. Statscan said the increase was driven by exports of crude oil and bitumen, among other products.

Consumer spending rose by 1 per cent annualized, although Statscan noted that per-capita consumption fell for the third consecutive quarter. The increase in aggregate spending “was led by higher spending on new trucks, vans and utility vehicles as supply chain issues continued to ease and back orders were fulfilled,” the report said.

Elsewhere, there was plenty of weakness in Thursday’s report. Real business investment fell for the sixth time over the previous seven quarters, and businesses also slowed their investments in inventories, which created a drag on growth.

Final domestic demand – a metric that includes household and government consumption, along with capital investments – fell at an annualized rate of 0.7 per cent. On Thursday, several analysts said this result was an indication that economic conditions are frail in Canada, and that overall numbers are being propped up by a resilient U.S. economy.

“The domestic economy appears to be weakening as high interest rates weigh on consumers and businesses,” Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Securities, said in a client note. “The growth that was seen in the fourth quarter didn’t come from within Canada’s borders and is particularly uninspiring given the population growth seen at the end of last year.”

Many private-sector economists reiterated on Thursday that they expect the Bank of Canada to begin lowering its benchmark interest rate in June, although some investors think there’s a chance of that happening in April. The bank’s policy rate of 5 per cent is the highest since 2001. The BoC is expected to hold rates steady at its decision next week.

The household savings rate – the percentage of disposable income left after spending – was 6.2 per cent in the fourth quarter, down slightly from 6.3 per cent in the third quarter. This is much higher than it was before the pandemic, and it suggests people are squirrelling away more money to service their debts, or in anticipation of doing so at a later date, Mr. Mendes said.

Adblock test (Why?)

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

Published

 on

 

OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

Published

 on

 

OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

Published

 on

 

OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Exit mobile version