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Canadian electricity demand to surge as country pursues net-zero goals

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Clean electricity will become the cornerstone of Canada’s energy future and the use of fossil fuels will drop significantly if the country is to reach its goal of net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050, according to a new federal analysis.

The report, released Tuesday, is the Canada Energy Regulator’s (CER’s) first long-term outlook modelling net-zero by 2050. It outlines three scenarios: global net-zero, Canada net-zero and the continuation of current measures. But the agency emphasized that the scenarios aren’t predictions about the future or policy recommendations but sketches of Canada’s possible energy future.

“Uncertainty is inherent in all energy modelling exercises,” Gitane De Silva, the CER’s chief executive, wrote in her introduction to the report. “I am sure not everyone will agree with the assumptions we made, nor our findings.”

Nevertheless, Ms. De Silva said the report presents scenarios “that can help Canadians and policy makers see what a net-zero world could look like, visualize the goal, and make informed decisions.”

Canada, the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, is grappling with how to best balance its economic reliance on fossil-fuel production with the global goal of reducing greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

Under the global net-zero scenario, Canada achieves net-zero emissions by 2050 and the rest of the world reduces emissions enough to limit global warming to 1.5 C. The Canada net-zero scenario envisages a future where we hit net-zero by 2050 but other countries move more slowly.

The current measures scenario relies on a model whereby Canada sticks to the emissions-reduction measures in place today – the eventual $170-a-tonne carbon tax by 2030-31, for example, but not an oil-and-gas emissions cap being developed by Ottawa.

Federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said in an interview that the report helps paint a clearer picture for Canadians about what a net-zero future looks like.

“This is a tool that that will enable us to actually have a better conversation with Canadians about some of the changes that we expect to see,” he said of the report, which also emphasizes that Canada’s energy future will in large part be guided by external trade pressures as other countries eye net-zero goals.

“These are forces that are well beyond the control of the Government of Canada. This is about global demand and global price,” Mr. Wilkinson said.

Electricity demand becomes the most important energy source for Canadians in both of the report’s net-zero scenarios. Under the global scenario, for example, it grows 120 per cent from 2021 to 2050 – almost triple the annual rate from 1995 to 2019. The Canada scenario moves the dial even further, with demand growing 135 per cent from 2021 to 2050.

In both cases, wind power flowing into the grid grows rapidly, as does hydroelectricity, which is currently the largest source of generation in Canada. Natural gas-fired generation with carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) will become a key power source, particularly in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Nuclear also gets a look-in, with electricity generation from small module reactors set to comprise 12 per cent of total electricity generation by 2050.

Electricity demand grows more slowly in the current measures scenario but still increases by 62 per cent by 2050.

The surge in consumption comes from replacing current technologies with alternatives such as electric vehicles and heat pumps. The natural flow-on effect is a marked decrease in fossil-fuel consumption.


Change in electricity generation

By fuel, 2021 to 2050, Global net-zero scenario

Natural gas

with CCUS*

Fossil fuels

Terawatt hours

*Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS)

john sopinski/the globe and mail, Source: canada

energy regulator

Change in electricity generation

By fuel, 2021 to 2050, Global net-zero scenario

Natural gas

with CCUS*

Fossil fuels

Terawatt hours

*Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS)

john sopinski/the globe and mail, Source: canada

energy regulator

Change in electricity generation

By fuel, 2021 to 2050, Global net-zero scenario

Natural gas

with CCUS*

Fossil fuels

Terawatt hours

*Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS)

john sopinski/the globe and mail, Source: canada energy regulator

The global net-zero scenario paints a bleak picture for Canada’s oil and gas sector. By 2050, crude oil production falls to 1.2 million barrels a day (Mmb/d) and natural-gas production to 5.9 billion cubic feet a day – 76 per cent lower and 68 per cent lower than 2022 levels.

Oil sands production will be particularly hard-hit, falling to 0.58 MMb/d in 2050 under the global net-zero scenario, or 83 per cent lower than in 2022. Under the Canada net-zero model, by 2050 it’s 30 per cent lower.

If, however, the country continues along its current path, the CER report forecasts that oil production will be 20 per cent higher in 2050 than in 2022, and natural-gas production 24 per cent higher.

Jean-Denis Charlebois, the regulator’s chief economist, said conventional production could prove more resilient than the oil sands under both net-zero scenarios, because of price uncertainty and the cost of decarbonization measures such as CCUS.

The report hasn’t changed the plans of Pathways Alliance, a collaboration of Canada’s largest oil sands producers that aims to reach net-zero production by 2050. Mark Cameron, the alliance’s vice-president, said the net-zero scenarios underscore the importance of CCUS in meeting its goal.

“Last year was a record year for global oil demand,” he noted in an interview. “So I don’t think I would assume that we’re going to … all of a sudden be on that global net-zero track. So I think we really need to focus on what we can do to reduce emissions at home and Canada.”

Mr. Wilkinson said the report underscores the urgency with which the oil and gas sector must decarbonize production “both to enable Canada to meet its own domestic climate obligations, but also to enhance the competitiveness of our products in international markets.”

Chris Severson-Baker, executive director of the Pembina Institute, a think tank, said the energy transformation outlined in the report “demands proactive preparations on the part of responsible governments, federally and provincially, in order for Canada to remain competitive.”

 

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The #1 Skill I Look For When Hiring

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File this column under “for what it’s worth.”

“Communication is one of the most important skills you require for a successful life.” — Catherine Pulsifer, author.

I’m one hundred percent in agreement with Pulsifer, which is why my evaluation of candidates begins with their writing skills. If a candidate’s writing skills and verbal communication skills, which I’ll assess when interviewing, aren’t well above average, I’ll pass on them regardless of their skills and experience.

 

Why?

 

Because business is fundamentally about getting other people to do things—getting employees to be productive, getting customers to buy your products or services, and getting vendors to agree to a counteroffer price. In business, as in life in general, you can’t make anything happen without effective communication; this is especially true when job searching when your writing is often an employer’s first impression of you.

 

Think of all the writing you engage in during a job search (resumes, cover letters, emails, texts) and all your other writing (LinkedIn profile, as well as posts and comments, blogs, articles, tweets, etc.) employers will read when they Google you to determine if you’re interview-worthy.

 

With so much of our communication today taking place via writing (email, text, collaboration platforms such as Microsoft Teams, Slack, ClickUp, WhatsApp and Rocket.Chat), the importance of proficient writing skills can’t be overstated.

 

When assessing a candidate’s writing skills, you probably think I’m looking for grammar and spelling errors. Although error-free writing is important—it shows professionalism and attention to detail—it’s not the primary reason I look at a candidate’s writing skills.

 

The way someone writes reveals how they think.

 

  • Clear writing = Clear thinking
  • Structured paragraphs = Structured mind
  • Impactful sentences = Impactful ideas

 

Effective writing isn’t about using sophisticated vocabulary. Hemingway demonstrated that deceptively simple, stripped-down prose can captivate readers. Effective writing takes intricate thoughts and presents them in a way that makes the reader think, “Damn! Why didn’t I see it that way?” A good writer is a dead giveaway for a good thinker. More than ever, the business world needs “good thinkers.”

 

Therefore, when I come across a candidate who’s a good writer, hence a good thinker, I know they’re likely to be able to write:

 

  • Emails that don’t get deleted immediately and are responded to
  • Simple, concise, and unambiguous instructions
  • Pitches that are likely to get read
  • Social media content that stops thumbs
  • Human-sounding website copy
  • Persuasively, while attuned to the reader’s possible sensitivities

 

Now, let’s talk about the elephant in the room: AI, which job seekers are using en masse. Earlier this year, I wrote that AI’s ability to hyper-increase an employee’s productivity—AI is still in its infancy; we’ve seen nothing yet—in certain professions, such as writing, sales and marketing, computer programming, office and admin, and customer service, makes it a “fewer employees needed” tool, which understandably greatly appeals to employers. In my opinion, the recent layoffs aren’t related to the economy; they’re due to employers adopting AI. Additionally, companies are trying to balance investing in AI with cost-cutting measures. CEOs who’ve previously said, “Our people are everything,” have arguably created today’s job market by obsessively focusing on AI to gain competitive advantages and reduce their largest expense, their payroll.

 

It wouldn’t be a stretch to assume that most AI usage involves generating written content, content that’s obvious to me, and likely to you as well, to have been written by AI. However, here’s the twist: I don’t particularly care.

 

Why?

 

Because the fundamental skill I’m looking for is the ability to organize thoughts and communicate effectively. What I care about is whether the candidate can take AI-generated content and transform it into something uniquely valuable. If they can, they’re demonstrating the skills of being a good thinker and communicator. It’s like being a great DJ; anyone can push play, but it takes skill to read a room and mix music that gets people pumped.

 

Using AI requires prompting effectively, which requires good writing skills to write clear and precise instructions that guide the AI to produce desired outcomes. Prompting AI effectively requires understanding structure, flow and impact. You need to know how to shape raw information, such as milestones throughout your career when you achieved quantitative results, into a compelling narrative.

So, what’s the best way to gain and enhance your writing skills? As with any skill, you’ve got to work at it.

Two rules guide my writing:

 

  • Use strong verbs and nouns instead of relying on adverbs, such as “She dashed to the store.” instead of “She ran quickly to the store.” or “He whispered to the child.” instead of “He spoke softly to the child.”
  • Avoid using long words when a shorter one will do, such as “use” instead of “utilize” or “ask” instead of “inquire.” As attention spans get shorter, I aim for clarity, simplicity and, most importantly, brevity in my writing.

 

Don’t just string words together; learn to organize your thoughts, think critically, and communicate clearly. Solid writing skills will significantly set you apart from your competition, giving you an advantage in your job search and career.

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Nick Kossovan, a well-seasoned veteran of the corporate landscape, offers “unsweetened” job search advice. You can send Nick your questions to artoffindingwork@gmail.com.

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Politics likely pushed Air Canada toward deal with ‘unheard of’ gains for pilots

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MONTREAL – Politics, public opinion and salary hikes south of the border helped push Air Canada toward a deal that secures major pay gains for pilots, experts say.

Hammered out over the weekend, the would-be agreement includes a cumulative wage hike of nearly 42 per cent over four years — an enormous bump by historical standards — according to one source who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. The previous 10-year contract granted increases of just two per cent annually.

The federal government’s stated unwillingness to step in paved the way for a deal, noted John Gradek, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made it plain the two sides should hash one out themselves.

“Public opinion basically pressed the federal cabinet, including the prime minister, to keep their hands clear of negotiations and looking at imposing a settlement,” said Gradek, who teaches aviation management at McGill University.

After late-night talks at a hotel near Toronto’s Pearson airport, the country’s biggest airline and the union representing 5,200-plus aviators announced early Sunday morning they had reached a tentative agreement, averting a strike that would have grounded flights and affected some 110,000 passengers daily.

The relative precariousness of the Liberal minority government as well as a push to appear more pro-labour underlay the prime minister’s hands-off approach to the negotiations.

Trudeau said Friday the government would not step in to fix the impasse — unlike during a massive railway work stoppage last month and a strike by WestJet mechanics over the Canada Day long weekend that workers claimed road roughshod over their constitutional right to collective bargaining. Trudeau said the government respects the right to strike and would only intervene if it became apparent no negotiated deal was possible.

“They felt that they really didn’t want to try for a third attempt at intervention and basically said, ‘Let’s let the airline decide how they want to deal with this one,'” said Gradek.

“Air Canada ran out of support as the week wore on, and by the time they got to Friday night, Saturday morning, there was nothing left for them to do but to basically try to get a deal set up and accepted by ALPA (Air Line Pilots Association).”

Trudeau’s government was also unlikely to consider back-to-work legislation after the NDP tore up its agreement to support the Liberal minority in Parliament, Gradek said. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, whose party has traditionally toed a more pro-business line, also said last week that Tories “stand with the pilots” and swore off “pre-empting” the negotiations.

Air Canada CEO Michael Rousseau had asked Ottawa on Thursday to impose binding arbitration pre-emptively — “before any travel disruption starts” — if talks failed. Backed by business leaders, he’d hoped for an effective repeat of the Conservatives’ move to head off a strike in 2012 by legislating Air Canada pilots and ground crew to stick to their posts before any work stoppage could start.

The request may have fallen flat, however. Gradek said he believes there was less anxiety over the fallout from an airline strike than from the countrywide railway shutdown.

He also speculated that public frustration over thousands of cancelled flights would have flowed toward Air Canada rather than Ottawa, prompting the carrier to concede to a deal yielding “unheard of” gains for employees.

“It really was a total collapse of the Air Canada bargaining position,” he said.

Pilots are slated to vote in the coming weeks on the four-year contract.

Last year, pilots at Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines secured agreements that included four-year pay boosts ranging from 34 per cent to 40 per cent, ramping up pressure on other carriers to raise wages.

After more than a year of bargaining, Air Canada put forward an offer in August centred around a 30 per cent wage hike over four years.

But the final deal, should union members approve it, grants a 26 per cent increase in the first year alone, retroactive to September 2023, according to the source. Three wage bumps of four per cent would follow in 2024 through 2026.

Passengers may wind up shouldering some of that financial load, one expert noted.

“At the end of the day, it’s all us consumers who are paying,” said Barry Prentice, who heads the University of Manitoba’s transport institute.

Higher fares may be mitigated by the persistence of budget carrier Flair Airlines and the rapid expansion of Porter Airlines — a growing Air Canada rival — as well as waning demand for leisure trips. Corporate travel also remains below pre-COVID-19 levels.

Air Canada said Sunday the tentative contract “recognizes the contributions and professionalism of Air Canada’s pilot group, while providing a framework for the future growth of the airline.”

The union issued a statement saying that, if ratified, the agreement will generate about $1.9 billion of additional value for Air Canada pilots over the course of the deal.

Meanwhile, labour tension with cabin crew looms on the horizon. Air Canada is poised to kick off negotiations with the union representing more than 10,000 flight attendants this year before the contract expires on March 31.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:AC)

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Federal $500M bailout for Muskrat Falls power delays to keep N.S. rate hikes in check

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HALIFAX – Ottawa is negotiating a $500-million bailout for Nova Scotia’s privately owned electric utility, saying the money will be used to prevent a big spike in electricity rates.

Federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson made the announcement today in Halifax, saying Nova Scotia Power Inc. needs the money to cover higher costs resulting from the delayed delivery of electricity from the Muskrat Falls hydroelectric plant in Labrador.

Wilkinson says that without the money, the subsidiary of Emera Inc. would have had to increase rates by 19 per cent over “the short term.”

Nova Scotia Power CEO Peter Gregg says the deal, once approved by the province’s energy regulator, will keep rate increases limited “to be around the rate of inflation,” as costs are spread over a number of years.

The utility helped pay for construction of an underwater transmission link between Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, but the Muskrat Falls project has not been consistent in delivering electricity over the past five years.

Those delays forced Nova Scotia Power to spend more on generating its own electricity.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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