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Canadian employers say they plan to hang onto workers even if economy slips into recession

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Some Canadian employers say they plan to hold onto their workers even if the economy slips into a recession rather than risk not be able to rehire later, which should put a lid on job losses and soften the economic blow of the slump.

Canada’s jobless rate dropped to a record low of 4.9% over the summer and has since edged up to 5.2%. In October, the economy added a net 108,300 jobs, and wages growth climbed to 5.5%, even as the economy began to stall.

The challenge of hiring over the last few months is giving employers pause.

“I don’t anticipate layoffs at all,” said Mark Seymour, CEO of trucking service Kriska Transportation Group in Prescott, Ontario. Up until a few months ago, Kriska’s 1,200 employees were too few to keep up with demand, Seymour said.

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Now trucking activity, a leading indicator, has fallen off about 5% from earlier this year, Seymour told Reuters.

Seymour said his company hauls for one major car manufacturer who is expecting to be able to boost production again soon. “They’ve told us to get ready,” Seymour said.

Booming domestic demand has helped keep inflation high in Canada, leading the Bank of Canada to hike its benchmark rate by 350 basis points since March to 3.75%, a 14-year high. Another increase expected in December.

Governor Tiff Macklem reiterated on Thursday that Canada’s economy would slow significantly over the coming months and the jobless rate would rise from historic lows, but said it would not be a severe recession.

“Because the labor market is so hot and we have an exceptionally high number of vacant jobs, there is scope to cool the labor market without causing the kind of large surge in unemployment that we have typically experienced in recessions,” he said.

To be sure, some sectors will be hit harder than others. Tech companies like Shopify Inc have already made cuts and Canada’s tanking housing market will hit real estate, banking and construction workers.

With recession headlines spooking consumers and slowing demand, some companies are looking at scaling back sales functions a bit, said David King, senior managing director for recruitment agency Robert Half.

But overall, demand for professionals is strong. “I think the balance of power still remains with the candidate side of the equation,” King said.

Dennis Darby, who heads Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters business lobby, says there are still some 80,000 vacancies in manufacturing.

“The last thing that any manufacturer I’ve talked to is talking about is laying anybody off,” he said.

Canada has nearly a million open jobs and just over a million unemployed people. Most open jobs are in healthcare and high-contact services, along with skilled-trade heavy sectors like construction and manufacturing.

“The one consistent thing I’m hearing, regardless of where I am – what region, what province – is access to labor,” said Stuart Bergman, chief economist at Export Development Canada. “They’re still looking for workers, and in particular skilled workers.”

As global supply chain bottlenecks dissipate, labor demand will rebound in sectors that have a backlog of orders due to forced production cuts. Carmakers, for example, had to slash output by 25% amid the semiconductor shortage.

“No one is looking at cutting employees, especially because the one thing that we are all waiting for in 2023 is the return of semiconductor supply,” Flavio Volpe, Canada’s Automotive Parts Manufacturer’s Association.

“A lesson we’ve learned in the last few years is if to let people go, they don’t come back.”

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China Wants Everyone to Trade In Their Old Cars, Fridges to Help Save Its Economy – Bloomberg

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China’s world-beating electric vehicle industry, at the heart of growing trade tensions with the US and Europe, is set to receive a big boost from the government’s latest effort to accelerate growth.

That’s one takeaway from what Beijing has revealed about its plan for incentives that will encourage Chinese businesses and households to adopt cleaner technologies. It’s widely expected to be one of this year’s main stimulus programs, though question-marks remain — including how much the government will spend.

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German Business Outlook Hits One-Year High as Economy Heals – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — German business sentiment improved to its highest level in a year — reinforcing recent signs that Europe’s largest economy is exiting two years of struggles.

An expectations gauge by the Ifo institute rose to 89.9. in April from a revised 87.7 the previous month. That exceeds the 88.9 median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. A measure of current conditions also advanced.

“Sentiment has improved at companies in Germany,” Ifo President Clemens Fuest said. “Companies were more satisfied with their current business. Their expectations also brightened. The economy is stabilizing, especially thanks to service providers.”

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A stronger global economy and the prospect of looser monetary policy in the euro zone are helping drag Germany out of the malaise that set in following Russia’s attack on Ukraine. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said last week that the country may have “turned the corner,” while Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also expressed optimism, citing record employment and retreating inflation.

There’s been a particular shift in the data in recent weeks, with the Bundesbank now estimating that output rose in the first quarter, having only a month ago foreseen a contraction that would have ushered in a first recession since the pandemic.

Even so, the start of the year “didn’t go great,” according to Fuest. 

“What we’re seeing at the moment confirms the forecasts, which are saying that growth will be weak in Germany, but at least it won’t be negative,” he told Bloomberg Television. “So this is the stabilization we expected. It’s not a complete recovery. But at least it’s a start.”

Monthly purchasing managers’ surveys for April brought more cheer this week as Germany returned to expansion for the first time since June 2023. Weak spots remain, however — notably in industry, which is still mired in a slump that’s being offset by a surge in services activity.

“We see an improving worldwide economy,” Fuest said. “But this doesn’t seem to reach German manufacturing, which is puzzling in a way.”

Germany, which was the only Group of Seven economy to shrink last year and has been weighing on the wider region, helped private-sector output in the 20-nation euro area strengthen this month, S&P Global said.

–With assistance from Joel Rinneby, Kristian Siedenburg and Francine Lacqua.

(Updates with more comments from Fuest starting in sixth paragraph.)

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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Parallel economy: How Russia is defying the West’s boycott

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When Moscow resident Zoya, 62, was planning a trip to Italy to visit her daughter last August, she saw the perfect opportunity to buy the Apple Watch she had long dreamed of owning.

Officially, Apple does not sell its products in Russia.

The California-based tech giant was one of the first companies to announce it would exit the country in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

But the week before her trip, Zoya made a surprise discovery while browsing Yandex.Market, one of several Russian answers to Amazon, where she regularly shops.

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Not only was the Apple Watch available for sale on the website, it was cheaper than in Italy.

Zoya bought the watch without a moment’s delay.

The serial code on the watch that was delivered to her home confirmed that it was manufactured by Apple in 2022 and intended for sale in the United States.

“In the store, they explained to me that these are genuine Apple products entering Russia through parallel imports,” Zoya, who asked to be only referred to by her first name, told Al Jazeera.

“I thought it was much easier to buy online than searching for a store in an unfamiliar country.”

Nearly 1,400 companies, including many of the most internationally recognisable brands, have since February 2022 announced that they would cease or dial back their operations in Russia in protest of Moscow’s military aggression against Ukraine.

But two years after the invasion, many of these companies’ products are still widely sold in Russia, in many cases in violation of Western-led sanctions, a months-long investigation by Al Jazeera has found.

Aided by the Russian government’s legalisation of parallel imports, Russian businesses have established a network of alternative supply chains to import restricted goods through third countries.

The companies that make the products have been either unwilling or unable to clamp down on these unofficial distribution networks.

 

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