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Canadian GDP edged up 0.1% in November – BNNBloomberg.ca

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Canada’s economy unexpectedly expanded in November as cold weather drove a sharp increase in power usage, though the pick up won’t be enough to salvage what is likely to be a weak end to the year.

Gross domestic output rose 0.1 per cent in November, beating economist estimates for a flat reading, Statistics Canada reported Friday. That follows a 0.1 per cent contraction in the prior month.

Still, the economy remains on track for a very weak fourth quarter with economists predicting hardly any growth over the period. The slowdown is expected to eventually force the Bank of Canada into an interest rate cut, though Friday’s GDP number may take some pressure off the central bank for a more immediate move.

Utilities rose 2.1 per cent, the largest upward contributor to monthly GDP, as a result of unseasonably cold weather in Central Canada. The construction sector also stood out in the report, up 0.5 per cent on the month, with growth in all subsectors including residential and commercial.

“The above-consensus reading was surprising given the temporary factors which were expected to restrain growth,” Royce Mendes, an economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in Toronto, wrote in a note to clients. The result “should limit the downside risk to the Bank of Canada’s Q4 forecast,” he said.

The Bank of Canada estimates annualized growth of just 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter.

Canada’s currency pared declines after the report, and was trading 0.2 per cent lower at US$1.3234 against its U.S. counterpart at 8:42 a.m. Toronto time.

Key Insights

  • November’s expansion in output was a positive surprise after 17 of 18 economists in a Bloomberg survey predicted the economy to shrink or remain unchanged due to pipeline disruptions and an eight-day strike at Canada’s largest railway
  • The better-than-expected GDP reading may ease speculation the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates to counter the recent slowdown in the domestic economy, though the report is clouded by transitory events
  • Overall, the gains were broad-based with 15 of 20 sectors posting increases, which more than offset notable declines in the energy and transportation sectors

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  • A series of transitory factors including a labor strike, pipeline and mine closures contributed to a 1.4 per cent decline in the mining, quarrying and oil and gas category and a 0.9 per cent dip in the transportation and warehousing category
  • Retail sales increased 0.5 per cent in November, recouping part of the 1.1 per cent decline in the previous month
  • On an annual basis, Canada’s economy grew 1.5 per cent in November, beating estimates for 1.4 per cent

–With assistance from Erik Hertzberg.

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Netflix’s subscriber growth slows as gains from password-sharing crackdown subside

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Netflix on Thursday reported that its subscriber growth slowed dramatically during the summer, a sign the huge gains from the video-streaming service’s crackdown on freeloading viewers is tapering off.

The 5.1 million subscribers that Netflix added during the July-September period represented a 42% decline from the total gained during the same time last year. Even so, the company’s revenue and profit rose at a faster pace than analysts had projected, according to FactSet Research.

Netflix ended September with 282.7 million worldwide subscribers — far more than any other streaming service.

The Los Gatos, California, company earned $2.36 billion, or $5.40 per share, a 41% increase from the same time last year. Revenue climbed 15% from a year ago to $9.82 billion. Netflix management predicted the company’s revenue will rise at the same 15% year-over-year pace during the October-December period, slightly than better than analysts have been expecting.

The strong financial performance in the past quarter coupled with the upbeat forecast eclipsed any worries about slowing subscriber growth. Netflix’s stock price surged nearly 4% in extended trading after the numbers came out, building upon a more than 40% increase in the company’s shares so far this year.

The past quarter’s subscriber gains were the lowest posted in any three-month period since the beginning of last year. That drop-off indicates Netflix is shifting to a new phase after reaping the benefits from a ban on the once-rampant practice of sharing account passwords that enabled an estimated 100 million people watch its popular service without paying for it.

The crackdown, triggered by a rare loss of subscribers coming out of the pandemic in 2022, helped Netflix add 57 million subscribers from June 2022 through this June — an average of more than 7 million per quarter, while many of its industry rivals have been struggling as households curbed their discretionary spending.

Netflix’s gains also were propelled by a low-priced version of its service that included commercials for the first time in its history. The company still is only getting a small fraction of its revenue from the 2-year-old advertising push, but Netflix is intensifying its focus on that segment of its business to help boost its profits.

In a letter to shareholder, Netflix reiterated previous cautionary notes about its expansion into advertising, though the low-priced option including commercials has become its fastest growing segment.

“We have much more work to do improving our offering for advertisers, which will be a priority over the next few years,” Netflix management wrote in the letter.

As part of its evolution, Netflix has been increasingly supplementing its lineup of scripted TV series and movies with live programming, such as a Labor Day spectacle featuring renowned glutton Joey Chestnut setting a world record for gorging on hot dogs in a showdown with his longtime nemesis Takeru Kobayashi.

Netflix will be trying to attract more viewer during the current quarter with a Nov. 15 fight pitting former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson against Jake Paul, a YouTube sensation turned boxer, and two National Football League games on Christmas Day.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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