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Canadian households have lost billions in real estate cool-down – CBC News

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Canada’s real estate market has suddenly and dramatically cooled. Sales have dropped 24 per cent since this time last year. The average price of a home in this country has fallen by $179,047 since the peak in February. 

And yet, has much actually changed?

“I consider it like letting the air out of a balloon,” said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management. “You don’t want it necessarily to pop and burst, but in the near term prices needed to come down to something that was a little bit more sustainable.”

For anyone trying to get into the market, the prospect of a cool down was always presented as an opportunity. But even with a 20 per cent drop in prices, Canada’s average home price has fallen back to where it was in early 2021.

What has changed, however, is how house-poor the typical Canadian family is feeling lately. Statistics Canada says the drop in home prices has helped drive the largest decline of household wealth this country has ever seen.

Billions lost in household net worth

It may be easy to look at the decline in home prices and, if you’re not an owner trying to sell, say, “That doesn’t affect me.” 

But the reality is: Much of Canadian household wealth is tied up in home prices, the sector itself remains one of the biggest contributors to Canadian GDP, and it just took a hit.

Statscan says the net worth of Canadian households — defined as the value of all assets minus all liabilities — fell by a staggering $990.1 billion in April, May and June.

“This decline was compounded by a $389.8-billion drop in the value of non-financial assets, as the streak of gains in real estate that began in late 2018 was halted by a housing market grappling with rapidly rising interest rates,” wrote the data agency in a release last week.

The rest of the drop in household wealth comes as stock markets tanked in the second quarter. (Statscan’s figures only covered the period ending in June. Stock markets have recovered somewhat since then, but the once red-hot housing market losses have accelerated through July and August.)

A pedestrian passes a “Help Wanted” sign in the door of a hardware store in Cambridge, Massachusetts, U.S., July 8, 2022. REUTERS/Brian Snyder (Brian Snyder/Reuters)

As home values fall, there’s a knock-on effect for the rest of the economy, “like spending on building materials, spending on furniture, all that kind of stuff,” said BMO’s senior economist Robert Kavcic.

“We have more depressed housing activity that’s going to drag on real economic growth and is going to drag on job growth.”

As home values skyrocketed over the past decades, Canadian homeowners felt richer. They borrowed more and spent more, using their ever-rising home values as a sort of ATM.

As values fall off and interest rates rise, homeowners are less likely to borrow and spend.

Those interest rates will also slow the economy in another way, says Kavcic.

“If your mortgage payment is gone up $500 a month, or $1000 a month, that is immediately biting into discretionary spending that you could otherwise be spending elsewhere in the economy,” he told CBC News.

Inflation is not over

Meanwhile, inflation is eating into our purchasing power and eroding wage growth.

Combined, consumers are looking for ways to scale back spending, and small decisions make big differences when scaled out over a population.

“If you’re not going out for lunch, well, that’s one fewer sale at the local lunch place and maybe at some point, a couple fewer jobs,” said Kavcic.

He expects there are difficult days ahead.

Falling gasoline prices are driving down headline inflation. But other the price of other goods and services continues to rise. (Robert Short/CBC )

Next week, Canada’s latest inflation numbers are set to be released. They’re forecast to show a deceleration in the main, headline number that in June reached a 39-year high of 8.1 per cent

But economists are concerned that core inflation, which strips out volatile components like gasoline and food, is still rising. Cieszynski says the most recent inflation numbers from the U.S. show how tough it is to rein in rising prices.

“[Last week’s U.S.] numbers showed that inflation is sticky, it’s remaining high and it may or may not have peaked,” he said.

“Even if it does start to come down, it may come down much slower than [Wall Street] had anticipated.”

If inflation does persist even as higher interest rates bite into the economy, he says, central banks including the Bank of Canada would have to increase rates more than expected and remain high for longer than anticipated.

That would mean more turmoil for both stock markets and real estate markets. Which in turn would mean an even larger erosion of household wealth than we’ve already seen.

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Unlock Reliable U.S. Real Estate Opportunities with Oak Street Partners

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OAK STREET PARTNERS UNLOCKING OPPORTUNITIES  FOR CANADIAN INVESTORS IN THE U.S. RENTAL HOUSING MARKET

Oak Street Partners is leading the way in cash-flow-focused U.S. affordable housing investments

TORONTO, ON | NOVEMBER 18, 2024 – With the Canadian real estate market facing challenges and declining opportunities for investors, Oak Street Partners, a Toronto-based private real estate investment firm, is offering a new avenue for Canadian investors to diversify into the U.S. rental housing market. Oak Street Partners enables investors to passively invest in U.S. affordable housing, providing them with stable, cash-flow-focused returns while helping meet the growing demand for quality, affordable housing in the United States.

“Market conditions in Canada have made it more difficult for investors to find reliable, income-generating opportunities,” says Parker Christie, Founder & CEO of Oak Street Partners. “By turning to the U.S. affordable housing market, we’ve been able to create consistent, cash-flowing investments that benefit both our investors and local communities.”

Building on this approach, Oak Street Partners facilitates investment by strategically acquiring and managing properties in the U.S., particularly in the Midwest and Southeast regions. Investors provide capital, while Oak Street handles all aspects of property ownership and management. Similar to a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), but privately structured, Oak Street ensures investors receive stable, cash-flow-driven returns without the need for direct involvement.
A key part of Oak Street’s approach is leveraging the Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher Program, America’s largest federal rental subsidy program that pays private landlords rent on behalf of low-income tenants. This guarantees a reliable, high cash flow income stream, even when real estate markets are challenged with high interest rate environments. By leveraging this program, Oak Street is not only able to provide consistent returns to its investors, but it also enhances lower-income communities, creating sustainable, quality homes for residents.

“It’s a win-win situation,” explains Trumbull Fisher, Director of Oak Street Partners. “Tenants are able to secure and enjoy quality, affordable housing, while investors benefit from reliable, government-backed rental payments that ensure steady cash flow.”

By investing in these properties, Oak Street is able to support the demand for affordable housing, while also contributing to the broader social good by addressing housing shortages and improving community infrastructure. This dual focus on financial return and social impact is what makes Oak Street’s approach stand out in today’s real estate investment landscape.

In its first year of operation, Oak Street has acquired over 100 units in Ohio. With $10 million in assets under management, the company has been able to offer its investors a 10 per cent cash dividend, which was distributed nine months into its operation. This is a rare milestone for companies in their first year, as many real estate investment firms operate at a loss in their early stages.

“As we look to the future, our goal is to expand Oak Street’s portfolio in high-demand areas across the Midwest and Southeast,” adds Christie. “Our focus will remain on sourcing properties that deliver strong, stable returns while positively impacting local communities.”

For more information on Oak Street Partners visit oakstreetgp.com/.

ABOUT OAK STREET PARTNERS

Oak Street Partners is a real estate investment firm focused on creating diversified and stable opportunities for investors in the U.S. rental housing market. We offer a unique pathway for investors to build and expand their portfolios by investing in affordable housing opportunities, improving the quality of life for tenants while delivering consistent returns for investors.

Website: https://oakstreetgp.com/

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/oak-street-partners-gp

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/oakstreetgp/

Email: info@oakstreetgp.com  n

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‘The Bidding War’ taps into Toronto’s real estate anxiety

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‘The Bidding War’ is a play skewering Toronto’s real estate market via a story about a one-day bidding war over the city’s last affordable home. The cast and crew say it exposes how the housing crisis brings out “the worst in people.” (Nov. 12, 2024)

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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