Canadian inflation hits a new three-decade high with pressure to raise interest rates intensifying - The Globe and Mail | Canada News Media
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Canadian inflation hits a new three-decade high with pressure to raise interest rates intensifying – The Globe and Mail

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Inflation hit a new three-decade high in January, heaping more pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates for the first time since the pandemic started.

The consumer price index rose 5.1 per cent in January from a year earlier, accelerating from December’s pace of 4.8 per cent and marking the first time since 1991 that inflation has surpassed 5 per cent, Statistics Canada said Wednesday. It was the 10th consecutive month that inflation has exceeded the Bank of Canada’s target range of 1 per cent to 3 per cent.

Central bankers face a formidable task in taming inflation, which is proving more durable than they once assumed. As such, the Bank of Canada is widely expected to start raising its benchmark interest rate from 0.25 per cent at the next opportunity, March 2.

Inflation has been a dominant theme of the economic recovery from the pandemic. Prices are rising for several reasons, including supply chain disruptions, labour shortages, robust consumer demand and ultralow interest rates that are driving rabid activity in the real estate market.

At the same time, average wages aren’t increasing at nearly the same pace, which means households are experiencing a decline in purchasing power.

It’s unlikely Canadians will get relief in the short term, several economists said Wednesday.

“The widespread nature of the price gains, including in many sectors that rarely see significant inflation, indicates that firms are readily able to pass on cost increases, especially at a time when consumer savings are relatively flush,” said Doug Porter, chief economist at Bank of Montreal, in a note to clients.

“With commodity prices still rolling, supply issues persisting, home prices afire and now wages stirring, it’s clear that the risks remain squarely to the upside on the inflation outlook.”

Canadians are feeling the pinch on several fronts.

Housing costs rose 6.2 per cent in January, the fastest annual pace since 1990. The homeowners’ replacement cost index – which is tied to the price of new homes – rose 13.5 per cent, propelled by higher prices for lumber and other building materials.

Grocery prices rose 6.5 per cent in January on an annual basis, quickening from December’s 5.7-per-cent pace. Fresh or frozen beef jumped 13 per cent, fresh fruit rose 8.2 per cent and bakery products climbed 7.4 per cent. Statscan pointed to inclement weather and higher shipping costs as some of the reasons.

The average of the Bank of Canada’s core measures of annual inflation – which strip out extreme price swings and give a better sense of underlying trends – rose to 3.2 per cent from 3 per cent, the highest since 1991.

Once again, inflation was higher for goods (7.2 per cent) than services (3.4 per cent), a reflection of pandemic shifts in consumer spending. That said, services inflation can be sticky, making it a potential area of concern as some sectors reopen and people divert more money to that side of the economy.

Canadians are feeling pain at the pumps, too. Gasoline prices increased 4.8 per cent in January alone and 32 per cent over the past year. Benchmark oil prices are nearing US$100 a barrel, in part because of heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

“With energy prices continuing to rise, inflation is set to accelerate even further and is unlikely to materially slow down before April,” said Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Securities, in a research note.

Throughout the pandemic, the Bank of Canada has revised its inflation forecasts higher. In its latest Monetary Policy Report, published alongside the January rate decision, the bank said it expected inflation to average 4.2 per cent this year, much steeper than October’s forecast of 3.4 per cent. It will ease to about 3 per cent by the end of the year, the bank estimated – a hefty upward revision from about 2 per cent just three months earlier.

After Wednesday’s report, Mr. Porter of BMO said he expects inflation to come in even higher, averaging 4.7 per cent this year.

“Simply put, this is far too hot for comfort for the Bank of Canada, so expect a steady series of rate hikes in the coming meetings – we look for four in a row to start, and it may well require much more than that to bring inflation to heel,” he said.

Traders are pricing in as many as seven rate hikes over the next year, which would take the bank’s policy rate to 2 per cent – 25 basis points higher than at the outset of the pandemic. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.)

Some analysts criticized the Bank of Canada for not hiking rates in January, given its declaration that the economy was back at full capacity, as well as rising expectations of higher inflation among businesses and consumers.

The bank has long maintained that expectations of lofty inflation are not becoming entrenched and thereby tougher to control. While the bank held rates steady last month, Governor Tiff Macklem made it clear this era of loose monetary policy is coming to an end soon.

“Everybody should expect interest rates to be on a rising path,” Mr. Macklem said at a news conference after the January decision. “A path is not one move. A path is a number of steps.”

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The #1 Skill I Look For When Hiring

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File this column under “for what it’s worth.”

“Communication is one of the most important skills you require for a successful life.” — Catherine Pulsifer, author.

I’m one hundred percent in agreement with Pulsifer, which is why my evaluation of candidates begins with their writing skills. If a candidate’s writing skills and verbal communication skills, which I’ll assess when interviewing, aren’t well above average, I’ll pass on them regardless of their skills and experience.

 

Why?

 

Because business is fundamentally about getting other people to do things—getting employees to be productive, getting customers to buy your products or services, and getting vendors to agree to a counteroffer price. In business, as in life in general, you can’t make anything happen without effective communication; this is especially true when job searching when your writing is often an employer’s first impression of you.

 

Think of all the writing you engage in during a job search (resumes, cover letters, emails, texts) and all your other writing (LinkedIn profile, as well as posts and comments, blogs, articles, tweets, etc.) employers will read when they Google you to determine if you’re interview-worthy.

 

With so much of our communication today taking place via writing (email, text, collaboration platforms such as Microsoft Teams, Slack, ClickUp, WhatsApp and Rocket.Chat), the importance of proficient writing skills can’t be overstated.

 

When assessing a candidate’s writing skills, you probably think I’m looking for grammar and spelling errors. Although error-free writing is important—it shows professionalism and attention to detail—it’s not the primary reason I look at a candidate’s writing skills.

 

The way someone writes reveals how they think.

 

  • Clear writing = Clear thinking
  • Structured paragraphs = Structured mind
  • Impactful sentences = Impactful ideas

 

Effective writing isn’t about using sophisticated vocabulary. Hemingway demonstrated that deceptively simple, stripped-down prose can captivate readers. Effective writing takes intricate thoughts and presents them in a way that makes the reader think, “Damn! Why didn’t I see it that way?” A good writer is a dead giveaway for a good thinker. More than ever, the business world needs “good thinkers.”

 

Therefore, when I come across a candidate who’s a good writer, hence a good thinker, I know they’re likely to be able to write:

 

  • Emails that don’t get deleted immediately and are responded to
  • Simple, concise, and unambiguous instructions
  • Pitches that are likely to get read
  • Social media content that stops thumbs
  • Human-sounding website copy
  • Persuasively, while attuned to the reader’s possible sensitivities

 

Now, let’s talk about the elephant in the room: AI, which job seekers are using en masse. Earlier this year, I wrote that AI’s ability to hyper-increase an employee’s productivity—AI is still in its infancy; we’ve seen nothing yet—in certain professions, such as writing, sales and marketing, computer programming, office and admin, and customer service, makes it a “fewer employees needed” tool, which understandably greatly appeals to employers. In my opinion, the recent layoffs aren’t related to the economy; they’re due to employers adopting AI. Additionally, companies are trying to balance investing in AI with cost-cutting measures. CEOs who’ve previously said, “Our people are everything,” have arguably created today’s job market by obsessively focusing on AI to gain competitive advantages and reduce their largest expense, their payroll.

 

It wouldn’t be a stretch to assume that most AI usage involves generating written content, content that’s obvious to me, and likely to you as well, to have been written by AI. However, here’s the twist: I don’t particularly care.

 

Why?

 

Because the fundamental skill I’m looking for is the ability to organize thoughts and communicate effectively. What I care about is whether the candidate can take AI-generated content and transform it into something uniquely valuable. If they can, they’re demonstrating the skills of being a good thinker and communicator. It’s like being a great DJ; anyone can push play, but it takes skill to read a room and mix music that gets people pumped.

 

Using AI requires prompting effectively, which requires good writing skills to write clear and precise instructions that guide the AI to produce desired outcomes. Prompting AI effectively requires understanding structure, flow and impact. You need to know how to shape raw information, such as milestones throughout your career when you achieved quantitative results, into a compelling narrative.

So, what’s the best way to gain and enhance your writing skills? As with any skill, you’ve got to work at it.

Two rules guide my writing:

 

  • Use strong verbs and nouns instead of relying on adverbs, such as “She dashed to the store.” instead of “She ran quickly to the store.” or “He whispered to the child.” instead of “He spoke softly to the child.”
  • Avoid using long words when a shorter one will do, such as “use” instead of “utilize” or “ask” instead of “inquire.” As attention spans get shorter, I aim for clarity, simplicity and, most importantly, brevity in my writing.

 

Don’t just string words together; learn to organize your thoughts, think critically, and communicate clearly. Solid writing skills will significantly set you apart from your competition, giving you an advantage in your job search and career.

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Nick Kossovan, a well-seasoned veteran of the corporate landscape, offers “unsweetened” job search advice. You can send Nick your questions to artoffindingwork@gmail.com.

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Politics likely pushed Air Canada toward deal with ‘unheard of’ gains for pilots

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MONTREAL – Politics, public opinion and salary hikes south of the border helped push Air Canada toward a deal that secures major pay gains for pilots, experts say.

Hammered out over the weekend, the would-be agreement includes a cumulative wage hike of nearly 42 per cent over four years — an enormous bump by historical standards — according to one source who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. The previous 10-year contract granted increases of just two per cent annually.

The federal government’s stated unwillingness to step in paved the way for a deal, noted John Gradek, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made it plain the two sides should hash one out themselves.

“Public opinion basically pressed the federal cabinet, including the prime minister, to keep their hands clear of negotiations and looking at imposing a settlement,” said Gradek, who teaches aviation management at McGill University.

After late-night talks at a hotel near Toronto’s Pearson airport, the country’s biggest airline and the union representing 5,200-plus aviators announced early Sunday morning they had reached a tentative agreement, averting a strike that would have grounded flights and affected some 110,000 passengers daily.

The relative precariousness of the Liberal minority government as well as a push to appear more pro-labour underlay the prime minister’s hands-off approach to the negotiations.

Trudeau said Friday the government would not step in to fix the impasse — unlike during a massive railway work stoppage last month and a strike by WestJet mechanics over the Canada Day long weekend that workers claimed road roughshod over their constitutional right to collective bargaining. Trudeau said the government respects the right to strike and would only intervene if it became apparent no negotiated deal was possible.

“They felt that they really didn’t want to try for a third attempt at intervention and basically said, ‘Let’s let the airline decide how they want to deal with this one,'” said Gradek.

“Air Canada ran out of support as the week wore on, and by the time they got to Friday night, Saturday morning, there was nothing left for them to do but to basically try to get a deal set up and accepted by ALPA (Air Line Pilots Association).”

Trudeau’s government was also unlikely to consider back-to-work legislation after the NDP tore up its agreement to support the Liberal minority in Parliament, Gradek said. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, whose party has traditionally toed a more pro-business line, also said last week that Tories “stand with the pilots” and swore off “pre-empting” the negotiations.

Air Canada CEO Michael Rousseau had asked Ottawa on Thursday to impose binding arbitration pre-emptively — “before any travel disruption starts” — if talks failed. Backed by business leaders, he’d hoped for an effective repeat of the Conservatives’ move to head off a strike in 2012 by legislating Air Canada pilots and ground crew to stick to their posts before any work stoppage could start.

The request may have fallen flat, however. Gradek said he believes there was less anxiety over the fallout from an airline strike than from the countrywide railway shutdown.

He also speculated that public frustration over thousands of cancelled flights would have flowed toward Air Canada rather than Ottawa, prompting the carrier to concede to a deal yielding “unheard of” gains for employees.

“It really was a total collapse of the Air Canada bargaining position,” he said.

Pilots are slated to vote in the coming weeks on the four-year contract.

Last year, pilots at Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines secured agreements that included four-year pay boosts ranging from 34 per cent to 40 per cent, ramping up pressure on other carriers to raise wages.

After more than a year of bargaining, Air Canada put forward an offer in August centred around a 30 per cent wage hike over four years.

But the final deal, should union members approve it, grants a 26 per cent increase in the first year alone, retroactive to September 2023, according to the source. Three wage bumps of four per cent would follow in 2024 through 2026.

Passengers may wind up shouldering some of that financial load, one expert noted.

“At the end of the day, it’s all us consumers who are paying,” said Barry Prentice, who heads the University of Manitoba’s transport institute.

Higher fares may be mitigated by the persistence of budget carrier Flair Airlines and the rapid expansion of Porter Airlines — a growing Air Canada rival — as well as waning demand for leisure trips. Corporate travel also remains below pre-COVID-19 levels.

Air Canada said Sunday the tentative contract “recognizes the contributions and professionalism of Air Canada’s pilot group, while providing a framework for the future growth of the airline.”

The union issued a statement saying that, if ratified, the agreement will generate about $1.9 billion of additional value for Air Canada pilots over the course of the deal.

Meanwhile, labour tension with cabin crew looms on the horizon. Air Canada is poised to kick off negotiations with the union representing more than 10,000 flight attendants this year before the contract expires on March 31.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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Federal $500M bailout for Muskrat Falls power delays to keep N.S. rate hikes in check

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HALIFAX – Ottawa is negotiating a $500-million bailout for Nova Scotia’s privately owned electric utility, saying the money will be used to prevent a big spike in electricity rates.

Federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson made the announcement today in Halifax, saying Nova Scotia Power Inc. needs the money to cover higher costs resulting from the delayed delivery of electricity from the Muskrat Falls hydroelectric plant in Labrador.

Wilkinson says that without the money, the subsidiary of Emera Inc. would have had to increase rates by 19 per cent over “the short term.”

Nova Scotia Power CEO Peter Gregg says the deal, once approved by the province’s energy regulator, will keep rate increases limited “to be around the rate of inflation,” as costs are spread over a number of years.

The utility helped pay for construction of an underwater transmission link between Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, but the Muskrat Falls project has not been consistent in delivering electricity over the past five years.

Those delays forced Nova Scotia Power to spend more on generating its own electricity.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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