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Canadian oil prices to improve, curtailment to end in 2020: forecast – Global News

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Canadian crude oil prices are expected to strengthen and natural gas prices are expected to continue to improve into 2020, according to professional services company Deloitte Canada.

“We’re really expecting 2020 to be a lot more constructive for oil and gas producers here in Canada this year than it was in 2019,” Andrew Botterill, national oil and gas leader with Deliotte Canada and the forecast’s author, told Global News.

“A little bit better on the oil market but for sure better for natural gas.”

In an oil and gas price forecast released Tuesday, Deloitte said it expects Canadian crude prices to rise moderately as a supply glut is drawn down by topped-up takeaway capacity via rail and pipeline, as well as because of the effects of extended production curtailments in Alberta.​

“As much as they weren’t necessarily are sought after by industry, [curtailments] were kind of needed,” Botterill said. “And I think we’re going to see those come to an end here in 2020.”

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The eight-day CN Rail strike in late November and the 11-day shutdown of the Keystone XL pipeline from a 1.4-million-litre spill in early November increased crude stores, driving down Alberta oil prices and expanding the differential with the price of WTI in 2019.

November’s events also led to the Kenney government to extend production curtailment — initially put in place by the Notley government — to January 2020.


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In the forecast, Botterill said curtailment “should have a positive impact on Canadian oil prices.”

Botterill said that with global crude prices sitting around US$55 to US$60, Canadian companies are still able to bring on production.

“We are in a place where there’s a relatively nice balance and we’re able to manage that right now,” the Delliotte partner said. “So that’s why it might be more constructive in oil this year for Canadians with curtailments.

“It’s not that we think it’s going to be on the backs of the dramatic price increase; it’s just going to be in some more stability for Canadian producers.”

Botterill noted that crude debottlenecking projects, like the construction of the federally owned Trans Mountain expansion project and the restoration of Enbridge’s Line 3 pipeline, could add up to 580,000 barrels per day of additional shipping capacity. That represents 10 per cent of Canada’s daily oil production and is about equivalent to the country’s oversupply that dragged down the price of Canuck crude.

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“I think seeing those projects go forward starts to create the room that I think we start to see curtailment come off and start to see more constructive conversations about deploying capital,” Botterill said.

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Canadian oil producers will be seeing reduced pressures from competition stateside.

The Deloitte forecast said growth in U.S. oil production is slowing while the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects the country to continue as a net exporter of oil in 2020. Lower return on investments in the form of new wells put downward pressure on the oil sector of Canada’s southern neighbour.

U.S. companies are also “feeling the tightening of purse strings as the oil and gas industry continues to receive opposition regarding carbon intensity,” Deloitte said in its forecast.

Natural gas to see extended highs

Natural gas will provide a ray of hope for Canada’s energy sector in 2020, according to Deliotte.

Lower natural gas storage levels have helped boost Alberta’s gas trading prices. Low production levels — stemming from volatile and depressed AECO pricing in 2019 — have helped keep Alberta’s gas supplies low.

“Fortunately for producers, there are signs these higher prices could last beyond the winter months, which could provide some much-needed relief to their balance sheets,” Botterill said.

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A glut of U.S. natural gas should allow for more Canadian natural gas to get to market, according to Botterill.

“The major pipeline companies in Canada have been working with producers over the last year on different takeaway capacity and different agreements that I think are going to make Canadian gas prices a lot more competitive,” Botterill said.


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The December 2019 Deloitte forecast marks a trimming of its September 2019 expectations in Canadian oil prices from just above US$70 per barrel to just under the US$70 mark, with a modest upward trend through 2023.

However, Deliotte analysts increased their expectations of natural gas from the fall forecast, with increases through 2023.

In December 2018, Botterill estimated conservatively for oil and gas in 2019.

Botterill predicted Edmonton light oil average prices would be US$65.80 per barrel and the commodity outperformed by US$2.98 in 2019.

He overestimated the performance of natural gas, predicting 2019’s average price to be US$1.50 per thousand cubic feet, higher than the actual average of US$1.45.

Leveraging tech and scale

One area Deloitte analysts said Canadian oil and gas companies are not taking full advantage of is embracing digital and innovative programs.

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“We don’t expect high commodity prices to return soon so innovations must deliver value at a time of volatility caused by environmental policies and regulator constraints,” Ian Proctor, Deloitte Digital partner, said in a statement.

Proctor pointed to innovations improving health and safety, reducing operating expenses, enabling the workforce and increasing profitability as priorities for the oil and gas sector.

Botterill said junior and intermediate oil producers have recognized the need to join larger companies in leveraging technology to help improve margins.

“They recognize that if they’re going to produce their barrels, they’re going to have to do so at a competitive cost as well and a good margin,” Botterill said.

“Oil and gas companies are quick adapters to technology, especially when it looks to drilling. But I think now a lot of that technology is coming into day-to-day operations, how to focus on margins.”

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Botterill said production curtailment has had “a negative effect on the country’s merger and acquisition markets, particularly on prospective deals involving junior and intermediate producers.”

He pointed to the M&A activity totalling just $600 million in the third quarter of 2019, less than 20 per cent of the same activity a year earlier.

Botterill said curtailment put a damper on any interest in mergers and acquisitions.

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“It’s a tricky dance that I think comes down to who has capital and can we create situations where shareholders and companies feel that they can make a better vehicle going forward?” Botterill said.

“I think size and scale [are] going to certainly be a good story for the next few years, and so we might see some mergers or equals like that.”

© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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Jacob Trouba says ‘there’s no animosity’ toward Rangers following trade rumors

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GREENBURGH, N.Y. (AP) — New York Rangers defenseman Jacob Trouba said Thursday “there’s no animosity” toward the organization following an offseason in which his name was prominently mentioned in trade rumors.

“It’s part of the business of hockey,” Trouba said following the first day of training camp for the reigning Presidents’ Trophy-winning Rangers.

According to reports, Rangers president and general manager Chris Drury had negotiated a trade that would send New York’s captain to Detroit in late June. The trade fell apart, however, when Trouba submitted his 15-team no-trade list to the Rangers on June 30 and included the Red Wings on it.

“Obviously, had the no-move that turned into the partial no-trade,” said Trouba, whom New York acquired in a trade with Winnipeg in June 2019 and signed to a seven-year, $56 million contract one month later. “That’s life, contracts, hockey business, whatever you want to call it.

“I knew that was coming that summer. It’s not by surprise. It was obviously something that was negotiated at the time.”

The 30-year-old’s insistence that his relationship with Drury is fine echoes what the executive said in a pre-training camp conference call with reporters.

“Jacob and I talk all the time as GM and captain should,” Drury said. “We’ve had a number of different conversations over the course of the summer on a lot of different things. He is very clear as to where he stands with me and what I think of him as a player and as a leader.”

Still, Trouba realizes that the 2024-25 season is likely the last for the current iteration of the Original Six franchise. The Rangers have qualified for the Stanley Cup Playoffs in each of the last three seasons, and have reached the Eastern Conference Finals in 2022 and 2024. Following last spring’s six-game series loss to the eventual Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers, Drury wondered aloud in a conference call with reporters if the Rangers’ core players could lead the franchise to a Stanley Cup.

“(It’s) an opportunity that we have in front of us that in all likelihood will probably be the last crack for this core,” Trouba said. “I don’t think that’s a secret by any means. (A) group that’s kind of grown together, spent some years together here, and there’s something we want to accomplish.”

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Veterans Tyson Beukeboom, Karen Paquin lead Canada’s team at WXV rugby tournament

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Veterans Tyson Beukeboom and Karen Paquin will lead Canada at the WXV 1 women’s rugby tournament starting later this month in the Vancouver area.

WXV 1 includes the top three teams from the Women’s Six Nations (England, France and Ireland) and the top three teams from the Pacific Four Series (Canada, New Zealand, and the United States).

Third-ranked Canada faces No. 4 France, No. 7 Ireland and No. 1 England in the elite division of the three-tiered WXV tournament that runs Sept. 29 to Oct. 12 in Vancouver and Langley, B.C. No. 2 New Zealand and the eighth-ranked U.S. make up the six-team WVX 1 field.

“Our preparation time was short but efficient. This will be a strong team,” Canada coach Kevin Rouet said in a statement. “All the players have worked very hard for the last couple of weeks to prepare for WXV and we are excited for these next three matches and for the chance to play on home soil here in Vancouver against the best rugby teams in the world.

“France, Ireland and England will each challenge us in different ways but it’s another opportunity to test ourselves and another step in our journey to the Rugby World Cup next year.”

Beukeboom serves as captain in the injury absence of Sophie de Goede. The 33-year-old from Uxbridge, Ont., earned her Canadian-record 68th international cap in Canada’s first-ever victory over New Zealand in May at the Pacific Four Series.

Twenty three of the 30 Canadian players selected for WXV 1 were part of that Pacific Four Series squad.

Rouet’s roster includes the uncapped Asia Hogan-Rochester, Caroline Crossley and Rori Wood.

Hogan-Rochester and Crossley were part of the Canadian team that won rugby sevens silver at the Paris Olympics, along with WXV teammates Fancy Bermudez, Olivia Apps, Alysha Corrigan and Taylor Perry. Wood is a veteran of five seasons at UBC.

The 37-year-old Paquin, who has 38 caps for Canada including the 2014 Rugby World Cup, returns to the team for the first time since the 2021 World Cup.

Canada opens the tournament Sept. 29 against France at B.C. Place Stadium in Vancouver before facing Ireland on Oct. 5 at Willoughby Stadium at Langley Events Centre, and England on Oct. 12 at B.C. Place.

The second-tier WXV 2 and third-tier WXV 3 are slated to run Sept. 27 to Oct. 12, in South Africa and Dubai, respectively.

WXV 2 features Australia, Italy, Japan, Scotland, South Africa and Wales while WXV 3 is made up of Fiji, Hong Kong, Madagascar, the Netherlands, Samoa and Spain.

The tournament has 2025 World Cup qualification implications, although Canada, New Zealand and France, like host England, had already qualified by reaching the semifinals of the last tournament.

Ireland, South Africa, the U.S., Japan, Fiji and Brazil have also booked their ticket, with the final six berths going to the highest-finishing WXV teams who have not yet qualified through regional tournaments.

Canada’s Women’s Rugby Team WXV 1 Squad

Forwards

Alexandria Ellis, Ottawa, Stade Français Paris (France); Brittany Kassil, Guelph, Ont., Guelph Goats; Caroline Crossley, Victoria, Castaway Wanderers; Courtney Holtkamp, Rimbey, Alta., Red Deer Titans Rugby; DaLeaka Menin, Vulcan, Alta., Exeter Chiefs (England); Emily Tuttosi, Souris, Man., Exeter Chiefs (England); Fabiola Forteza, Quebec City, Stade Bordelais (France); Gabrielle Senft, Regina, Saracens (England); Gillian Boag, Calgary, Gloucester-Hartpury (England); Julia Omokhuale, Calgary, Leicester Tigers (England); Karen Paquin, Quebec City, Club de rugby de Quebec; Laetitia Royer, Loretteville, Que., ASM Romagnat (France); McKinley Hunt, King City, Ont., Saracens (England); Pamphinette Buisa, Gatineau, Que., Ottawa Irish; Rori Wood, Sooke, B.C., College Rifles RFC; Sara Cline, Edmonton, Leprechaun Tigers; Tyson Beukeboom, Uxbridge, Ont., Ealing Trailfinders (England);

Backs

Alexandra Tessier, Sainte-Clotilde-de-Horton, Que., Exeter Chiefs (England); Alysha Corrigan, Charlottetown, P.E.I., CRFC; Asia Hogan-Rochester, Toronto, Toronto Nomads; Claire Gallagher, Caledon, Ont., Leicester Tigers (England); Fancy Bermudez, Edmonton, Saracens (England); Julia Schell, Uxbridge, Ont., Ealing Trailfinders (England); Justine Pelletier, Rivière-du-Loup, Que, Stade Bordelais (France); Mahalia Robinson, Fulford, Que., Town of Mount Royal RFC; Olivia Apps, Lindsay, Ont., Lindsay RFC; Paige Farries, Red Deer, Alta., Saracens (England); Sara Kaljuvee, Ajax, Ont., Westshore RFC; Shoshanah Seumanutafa, White Rock, B.C., Counties Manukau (New Zealand); Taylor Perry, Oakville, Ont., Exeter Chiefs (England).

Follow @NeilMDavidson on X platform, formerly known as Twitter

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.



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Vancouver Canucks star goalie Thatcher Demko working through rare muscle injury

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PENTICTON, B.C. – Vancouver Canucks goalie Thatcher Demko says he’s been working his way back from a rare lower-body muscle injury since being sidelined in last season’s playoffs.

The 28-year-old all star says the rehabilitation process has been frustrating, but he has made good progress in recent weeks and is confident he’ll be able to return to playing.

He says he and his medical team have spent the last few months talking to specialists around the world, and have not found a single other hockey player who has dealt with the same injury.

Demko missed several weeks of the last season with a knee ailment and played just one game in Vancouver’s playoff run last spring before going down with the current injury.

He was not on the ice with his teammates as the Canucks started training camp in Penticton, B.C., on Thursday, but skated on his own before the sessions began.

Demko posted a 35-14-2 record with a .918 percentage, a 2.45 goals-against average and five shutouts for Vancouver last season.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

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