It is hard to fathom that Canada’s housing sector recorded unprecedented gains a year ago – from tremendous sales activity to enormous price growth – and now the industry is in the middle of a sharp correction. Every market analyst and financial institution has offered a forecast of how much more the country’s real estate market could fall. The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) projects a 25-per-cent decline by the end of next year, while Desjardins economists anticipate a 20-per-cent drop over the next year.
Whatever the case may be, the Canadian real estate market – be it major urban centres or cottage country – is going through an exceptional transition. Nobody knows when the trend will turn and when the next expansionist cycle will begin.
So, what is going on exactly? Here is a list summarizing what you need to know about today’s market.
What You Need to Know About This Canadian Real Estate Market
Here are five things you need to know about what is unfolding in the Canadian housing market:
#1 Home Prices Have Started Falling
It is no secret that prices have decreased from their pandemic peak. According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the national average home price stood at $629,971 in July, down five per cent from the same time a year ago. When the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and the Greater Vancouver Area (GVA) are removed from calculations, the country’s average price would be trimmed to approximately $525,000.
In addition, most of the monthly declines have been situated in the Ontario real estate market and the British Columbia housing sector. The Prairies have been flat while Atlantic Canada posted gains.
#2 Housing Demand Has Eased
In response to rising interest rates from the Bank of Canada (BoC), which has impacted mortgage rates (see more below), housing demand has waned nationwide.
CREA data show that national home sales tumbled by 5.3 per cent in July, and monthly activity was 29.3 per cent below July of last year. Moreover, sales have been down in three-quarters of all local markets, led by the GTA, the GVA, Calgary, Edmonton and the Fraser Valley.
“July saw a continuation of the trends we’ve been watching unfold for a few months now; sales winding down and prices easing in some relatively more expensive parts of the country as well as places where prices rose most over the past two years,” said Jill Oudil, Chair of CREA, in a news release.
#3 New Housing Construction Picking Up
Unfortunately, new housing construction activity has not returned to the level seen in early 2021. However, the numbers have been gradually increasing this year, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). In June, housing starts surged to 273,800, below the pandemic peak of 305,622. Urban starts totalled a little more than 257,000 units, while rural starts topped 16,000 units.
“The monthly SAAR was lower in June compared to May; however, the level of housing starts activity in Canada remains historically high and well above 200,000 units since 2020,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s Chief Economist, in a statement. “The decrease in monthly SAAR housing starts in Canada’s urban areas was driven by lower single-detached starts in June. Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal all recorded higher total SAAR starts, driven by higher multi-unit starts except for Montreal where single-detached starts posted a higher increase.”
#4 Interest Rates Are Rising
The central bank has lifted the benchmark interest rate to the highest it has been since the financial crisis more than a decade ago. The institution aims to fight three-decade high inflation with quantitative tightening – a blend of higher rates and balance sheet reduction. The hawkish tone at the BoC has impacted borrowing costs for prospective homebuyers.
Mortgage rates – both fixed- and variable-rate mortgages – are climbing higher. But the one trend flying under the radar is the challenge many borrowers experience in passing the mortgage stress test.
The mortgage stress test, which was raised last year, determines if homeowners can still pay their mortgage should interest rates go up. Lenders use this rule to determine if you qualify for a mortgage and how much you can borrow. In today’s rising-rate environment, homebuyers need to make an additional $18,000 to pass the mortgage stress test.
#5 Housing Supply is Still Low
CREA figures highlight that housing supply has yet to improve. In July, the number of new residential listings tumbled by 5.3 per cent on a month-over-month basis. CREA noted that the decline was broad-based, as 75 per cent of local markets witnessed a dip in supply.
This trend aligns with a new RE/MAX Canada report, which analyzed eight major Canadian housing markets from coast to coast, and found that seven of them had active inventory levels below the 10-year average.
In addition, CREA reported just 3.4 months of inventory in the Canadian real estate market in July, which is considered historically low. This figure measures the number of months it would take to exhaust current inventory levels at the present sales activity rate.
Will Other Trends Form?
The COVID-19 public health crisis took the world by surprise. In Canada, the subsequent housing boom, which occurred amid a collapsing economy and cratering employment levels, perhaps shocked most people. Currently, sales and prices in many markets are moderating, which could be an indicator of stabilizing conditions ahead. But the higher interest rates rise, the more pain will likely be felt among those engaging in the Canadian real estate market.
MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.
Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.
She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.
The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.
One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
MONTREAL – The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers says Montreal-area home sales rose 9.3 per cent in August compared with the same month last year, with levels slightly higher than the historical average for this time of year.
The association says home sales in the region totalled 2,991 for the month, up from 2,737 in August 2023.
The median price for all housing types was up year-over-year, led by a six per cent increase for the price of a plex at $763,000 last month.
The median price for a single-family home rose 5.2 per cent to $590,000 and the median price for a condominium rose 4.4 per cent to $407,100.
QPAREB market analysis director Charles Brant says the strength of the Montreal resale market contrasts with declines in many other Canadian cities struggling with higher levels of household debt, lower savings and diminishing purchasing power.
Active listings for August jumped 18 per cent compared with a year earlier to 17,200, while new listings rose 1.7 per cent to 4,840.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
In the quest to find cities where renters can enjoy the best of all worlds, a recent study analyzed 24 metrics across three key categories—Housing & Economy, Quality of Life, and Community. The study ranked the 100 largest cities in Canada to determine which ones offer the most to their renters.
Here are the top 10 cities that emerged as the best for renters in 2024:
St. John’s, NL
St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, stand out as the top city for renters in Canada for 2024. Known for its vibrant cultural scene, stunning natural beauty, and welcoming community, St. John’s offers an exceptional quality of life. The city boasts affordable housing, a robust economy, and low unemployment rates, making it an attractive option for those seeking a balanced and enriching living experience. Its rich history, picturesque harbour, and dynamic arts scene further enhance its appeal, ensuring that renters can enjoy both comfort and excitement in this charming coastal city.
Sherbrooke, QC
Sherbrooke, Quebec, emerges as a leading city for renters in Canada for 2024, offering a blend of affordability and quality of life. Nestled in the heart of the Eastern Townships, Sherbrooke is known for its picturesque landscapes, vibrant cultural scene, and strong community spirit. The city provides affordable rental options, low living costs, and a thriving local economy, making it an ideal destination for those seeking both comfort and economic stability. With its rich history, numerous parks, and dynamic arts and education sectors, Sherbrooke presents an inviting environment for renters looking for a well-rounded lifestyle.
Québec City, QC
Québec City, the capital of Quebec, stands out as a premier destination for renters in Canada for 2024. Known for its rich history, stunning architecture, and vibrant cultural heritage, this city offers an exceptional quality of life. Renters benefit from affordable housing, excellent public services, and a robust economy. The city’s charming streets, historic sites, and diverse culinary scene provide a unique living experience. With top-notch education institutions, numerous parks, and a strong sense of community, Québec City is an ideal choice for those seeking a dynamic and fulfilling lifestyle.
Trois-Rivières, QC
Trois-Rivières, nestled between Montreal and Quebec City, emerges as a top choice for renters in Canada. This historic city, known for its picturesque riverside views and rich cultural scene, offers an appealing blend of affordability and quality of life. Renters in Trois-Rivières enjoy reasonable housing costs, a low unemployment rate, and a vibrant community atmosphere. The city’s well-preserved historic sites, bustling arts community, and excellent educational institutions make it an attractive destination for those seeking a balanced and enriching lifestyle.
Saguenay, QC
Saguenay, located in the stunning Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region of Quebec, is a prime destination for renters seeking affordable living amidst breathtaking natural beauty. Known for its picturesque fjords and vibrant cultural scene, Saguenay offers residents a high quality of life with lower housing costs compared to major urban centers. The city boasts a strong sense of community, excellent recreational opportunities, and a growing economy. For those looking to combine affordability with a rich cultural and natural environment, Saguenay stands out as an ideal choice.
Granby, QC
Granby, nestled in the heart of Quebec’s Eastern Townships, offers renters a delightful blend of small-town charm and ample opportunities. Known for its beautiful parks, vibrant cultural scene, and family-friendly environment, Granby provides an exceptional quality of life. The city’s affordable housing market and strong sense of community make it an attractive option for those seeking a peaceful yet dynamic place to live. With its renowned zoo, bustling downtown, and numerous outdoor activities, Granby is a hidden gem that caters to a diverse range of lifestyles.
Fredericton, NB
Fredericton, the capital city of New Brunswick, offers renters a harmonious blend of historical charm and modern amenities. Known for its vibrant arts scene, beautiful riverfront, and welcoming community, Fredericton provides an excellent quality of life. The city boasts affordable housing options, scenic parks, and a strong educational presence with institutions like the University of New Brunswick. Its rich cultural heritage, coupled with a thriving local economy, makes Fredericton an attractive destination for those seeking a balanced and fulfilling lifestyle.
Saint John, NB
Saint John, New Brunswick’s largest city, is a coastal gem known for its stunning waterfront and rich heritage. Nestled on the Bay of Fundy, it offers renters an affordable cost of living with a unique blend of historic architecture and modern conveniences. The city’s vibrant uptown area is bustling with shops, restaurants, and cultural attractions, while its scenic parks and outdoor spaces provide ample opportunities for recreation. Saint John’s strong sense of community and economic growth make it an inviting place for those looking to enjoy both urban and natural beauty.
Saint-Hyacinthe, QC
Saint-Hyacinthe, located in the Montérégie region of Quebec, is a vibrant city known for its strong agricultural roots and innovative spirit. Often referred to as the “Agricultural Technopolis,” it is home to numerous research centers and educational institutions. Renters in Saint-Hyacinthe benefit from a high quality of life with access to excellent local amenities, including parks, cultural events, and a thriving local food scene. The city’s affordable housing and close-knit community atmosphere make it an attractive option for those seeking a balanced and enriching lifestyle.
Lévis, QC
Lévis, located on the southern shore of the St. Lawrence River across from Quebec City, offers a unique blend of historical charm and modern conveniences. Known for its picturesque views and well-preserved heritage sites, Lévis is a city where history meets contemporary living. Residents enjoy a high quality of life with excellent public services, green spaces, and cultural activities. The city’s affordable housing options and strong sense of community make it a desirable place for renters looking for both tranquility and easy access to urban amenities.
This category looked at factors such as average rent, housing costs, rental availability, and unemployment rates. Québec stood out with 10 cities ranking at the top, demonstrating strong economic stability and affordable housing options, which are critical for renters looking for cost-effective living conditions.
Québec again led the pack in this category, with five cities in the top 10. Ontario followed closely with three cities. British Columbia excelled in walkability, with four cities achieving the highest walk scores, while Caledon topped the list for its extensive green spaces. These factors contribute significantly to the overall quality of life, making these cities attractive for renters.
Victoria, BC, emerged as the leader in this category due to its rich array of restaurants, museums, and educational institutions, offering a vibrant community life. St. John’s, NL, and Vancouver, BC, also ranked highly. Québec City, QC, and Lévis, QC, scored the highest in life satisfaction, reflecting a strong sense of community and well-being. Additionally, Saskatoon, SK, and Oshawa, ON, were noted for having residents with lower stress levels.
For a comprehensive view of the rankings and detailed interactive visuals, you can visit the full study by Point2Homes.
While no city can provide a perfect living experience for every renter, the cities highlighted in this study come remarkably close by excelling in key areas such as housing affordability, quality of life, and community engagement. These findings offer valuable insights for renters seeking the best places to live in Canada in 2024.
