The province of Alberta has faced a myriad of challenges in the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic. In addition to a global economic downturn amid the COVID-19 public health crisis, the price of crude oil crashed to levels never seen before. It was a double whammy for the western province that affected every industry throughout the region, including the Calgary real estate market.
Are conditions beginning to normalise? The energy sector has rallied, with crude prices advancing to their best levels since March. The broader economy has rebounded as the gross domestic product (GDP) surged 6.5 per cent in June, up from the 4.8 per cent increase in May. Much of the housing market has returned to pre-pandemic levels.
Is Calgary improving, too? The real estate market is beginning to see some improvements. According to the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB), sales of single-family and townhomes recorded year-over-year gains in August. Last month, 992 single-family homes were sold, up from 945 at the same time a year ago. Townhome transactions totaled 216 in August, up from 194 in August 2019. Overall, August 2020 sales were about on par with August 2019 sales: 1,573 to 1,580.
The residential benchmark price was $420,800, down one per cent from last year.
But while Calgary faced a somewhat different situation than other municipalities, the city is seeing a resurgence, says CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.
“Recent national reports have shown a bounce back to new record levels over the past several months. Calgary has seen improvements over the lows recorded during the lockdowns but is far from record levels,” said Lurie in a news release. “The situation in Calgary has been slightly different as the job losses were not isolated to sectors that are typically associated with rental demand. We have started to see improvements in the job market compared to previous months as some jobs start to return.”
Does this represent a buying opportunity in the Calgary real estate market?
Canadian Real Estate: More Buyer Opportunity in the Calgary Real Estate Market
According to the latest Statistics Canada data, Calgary’s unemployment rate was the highest in the country for the second consecutive month in August. But the good news is that nearly 27,000 jobs were added last month, and the jobless rate slipped one percentage point to 11.8 per cent. The recent figures suggest that the city is on a slow but steady recovery.
What’s more, there has been increasing consternation surrounding the sight of empty commercial space and dark tower floors in Calgary and throughout the rest of the province. Although some real estate agents anticipate this to be the case for the next little while, they are not convinced that this will be the new norm.
That said, until the employment situation returns to pre-pandemic levels and the lights are turned back on within commercial premises, this could trigger a buying opportunity in the housing market since prices still sit one per cent below what they were a year ago.
CREB notes that new listings are have started to ease over the last month, which has diminished existing supply. At the same time, says the CREB chief economist, “the pace of year-over-year decline has eased as inventory levels have trended up relative to levels recorded a few months ago.” Put simply, the housing supply is picking up, and this could put downward pressure on prices if demand cannot keep up.
But the window of opportunity might be brief because Calgary is starting to see tighter market conditions in individual pockets of the real estate market. This is especially true when you consider low interest rates will inevitably draw buyers from the sidelines.
Earlier this year, the Bank of Canada (BoC) slashed the benchmark interest rate by 150 basis points to around 0.25 per cent. Plus, the central bank reduced the benchmark five-year mortgage for the third time this year to 4.79 per cent. So, whether you are a real estate investor or a homebuyer, now would be the best opportunity to take advantage of the modest downturn in Calgary real estate.
The Role of Calgary’s Diversification in its Recovery
Calgary has become diversified in recent years, relying on more than just energy to sustain the local economy. Financial services, manufacturing, aerospace, retail, and film and television are just some of the industries that have become integral to Canada’s fourth-largest city. This diversification strategy allowed the city to flourish before the pandemic, elevating the Calgary real estate market. The pandemic affected every sector, so it was no surprise that the rest of the municipal economy suffered. Now that the recovery is underway, the housing market is looking positive.
TORONTO – One expert predicts Ottawa‘s changes to mortgage rules will help spur demand among potential homebuyers but says policies aimed at driving new supply are needed to address the “core issues” facing the market.
The federal government’s changes, set to come into force mid-December, include a higher price cap for insured mortgages to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.
The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.
CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal calls it a “significant” move likely to accelerate the recovery of the housing market, a process already underway as interest rates have begun to fall.
However, he says in a note that policymakers should aim to “prevent that from becoming too much of a good thing” through policies geared toward the supply side.
Tal says the main issue is the lack of supply available to respond to Canada’s rapidly increasing population, particularly in major cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17,2024.
OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.
The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.
On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.
CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”
The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.
The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.
Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.
She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.
The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.
One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
