A recession is not expected in Canada this year despite a number of global uncertainties and trade tensions, according to a top Scotiabank economist, but growth will likely remain unexceptional.
Anxiety around global trade, the future of Brexit, and the U.S. elections later this year are all factors that will continue to keep the global economy in check, though some recent progress on trade talks between U.S. and China could help ease some of the uncertainty.
“Going into 2020, we think it’s going to be another year where the Canadian economy performs in kind of a ‘meh’ sort of way,” said Brett House, Vice President & Deputy Chief Economist at Scotiabank, predicting “mediocre” growth.
“On the other hand, it’s not going to be the long feared recession that a lot of headlines have pointed to either. We have a lot of uncertainty out there … but we also have a lot of fundamental strengths that should keep growth going.”
A healthy labour market and turnaround in the housing sector helped the Canadian economy grow at a moderate pace in 2019, the Bank of Canada said in its October Monetary Policy Report. The central bank has kept its overnight interest rate target unchanged at 1.75 per cent for more than a year, in contrast to its counterparts around the world who have eased their monetary policy and lowered their interest rates due to softness in the global economy. Canada’s unemployment rate stands at 5.9 per cent.
The housing market is expected to “remain fairly robust” this year, according to Scotiabank’s House, with Toronto experiencing one of the lowest supply-to-population ratios for housing in 20 years.
“Even though you see all the cranes up all over the place in Toronto and Vancouver, when you adjust the amount of supply that’s available to our populations in both cities, we still see a really, really tight inventory situation,” he told CTV’s Your Morning.
“There’s a lot of support to keep the housing market solid in both cities. And you’re seeing that spill over into smaller towns around them and into other cities like Montreal and Ottawa.”
Unlike the rest of the country, however, Alberta’s housing market is still recovering from the downturn in oil prices several years ago as well as some of the current weakness, with inventory still being absorbed, House said.
“We see that picking up this year, and some of that inventory being absorbed – as growth picks up in the province, as pipelines go ahead, and we see oil prices coming up at least in the short term and probably mildly over the longer term as well.”
The Conference Board of Canada forecast in December that Canada’s economy will grow by 1.8 per cent in 2020, a modest uptick from the 1.7 per cent growth seen last year.
Regionally, British Columbia and Quebec are expected to see the strongest economic growth, according to the Business Development Bank of Canada, with the prairie provinces recovering from a challenging year in 2019.
The World Economic League Table ranked Canada as the world’s 10th-largest economy in 2019 with an immigration-driven population growth helping to fuel the economy. The Centre for Economics and Business Research, which issues the ranking, forecast Canada to move up the league table over the next decade and beyond as a result.
Restrictions lifted in Quebec despite Canada's top doctors warning of a fourth wave – CTV News Montreal
At a minute past midnight Sunday, more COVID-19 restrictions in Quebec were lifted including how late bars and restaurants could serve alcohol and festival capacities.
Bars and restaurants are now permitted to serve alcohol until 1 a.m. with closing time pushed to 2 a.m.
Ten people or three private residences can share a table and tables must remain two metres apart indoors when there are no partitions between them. Outdoor terrasses can seat 20 per table, and those tables must be a metre apart.
In indoor auditoriums and stadiums, the capacity is now 7,500 people with assigned seating (with one empty seat between people from different households), with sections divided into a maximum of 250 people per section. Mask-wearing is still mandatory inside while not seated.
For outdoor festivals, 15,000 people are now permitted to attend in pre-assigned seats or standing in 500-people sections. Two-metre distancing is required, and mask-wearing is recommended by public health when people are circulating. A monitor is required to keep an eye on all participants. For complete rules on festivals and events, visit the Quebec public health site.
The sports community was quick to respond.
In soccer, CF Montreal announced that it will be able to receive fans in all sections of Saputo Stadium (in compliance with physical distance rules) as of next Wednesday, Aug. 4, during its game against Atlanta United.
The CFL’s Montreal Alouettes play its first game in Montreal on Aug. 27 against the Hamilton Tiger Cats.
The team said it was “extremely happy” with the new relaxations.
The Alouettes announced that individual tickets will be sold to the general public starting Monday morning.
Tennis Canada said that the National Bank Open, which will be held from Aug. 7 to 15 at the IGA Stadium, is maintaining a maximum capacity of 5,000 spectators per match in Montreal. The centre court can usually accommodate up to 12,000 people.
Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer, Dr. Theresa Tam, released modelling on Friday that indicates cases are beginning to rise as a result of the more contagious Delta variant, but there is still time to flatten the curve.
On Friday, Quebec reported 78 more Delta cases of the 125 new COVID-19 cases. Quebec’s total number of Delta cases (356), is at the low end of Canada’s overall numbers (9,841). Ontario leads the way with 4,565 total, followed by Alberta (2,004) and BC (1,664).
Epidemiologist Dr. Christopher Labos said the number one way to protect against a Delta-driven fourth wave of COVID-19 is to convince Quebecers who have yet to get a vaccine to do so immediately.
“If you’re not vaccinated, keep your distance from other people,” he said. “The problem with COVID is not just that it’s infectious, but that a significant portion of the people who get it get seriously ill and end up in hospital.”
— with files from The Canadian Press.
Immigration: Canada expands non-Canadians’ rights to information and privacy requests – Canada Immigration News
Earlier this month, Canada announced a major change to its rules for access to information and privacy (ATIP) in the Canada Gazette.
The change is simple, but the impacts are profound. The Canadian government is going to allow anyone to make an ATIP request under the Privacy Act. This new policy will bring Canada into line with global standards on ATIP. It will also vastly expand the rights of non-Canadians.
Laws such as the Privacy Act allow people to make ATIP requests to the federal government. Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) is a federal agency, so it is subject to the Privacy Act.
Currently, there are limitations on who can make an ATIP request through the Privacy Act. One of the items limits the right of access to two groups:
- Canadian citizens and permanent residents, inside or outside of Canada; and
- any entity (person or business) inside Canada, whether a citizen or not.
This limitation means that non-Canadians who are outside of Canada cannot make requests under the Privacy Act. There is a way to get around this rule. An ineligible person can get someone who is eligible to make a request on their behalf. However, this process can be expensive and time-consuming.
Having the ability to make an ATIP request to IRCC can be very helpful. For example, an ATIP request can allow a person to access their Global Case Management System (GCMS) notes. These are the detailed records of a person’s immigration case. They will explain IRCC staff’s thinking and decision-making. They can help a person understand why IRCC has decided the way it has. This knowledge, in turn, can also help the person challenge the IRCC decision. For example, the person could show the officer ignored or mis-interpreted something.
IRCC is a popular target for ATIP requests. In fact, there are more ATIP requests for IRCC than there are for any other federal government department combined.
Because this change is so important, IRCC expects it will need time to make sure it goes smoothly. For example, IRCC will have to change forms and processes. It will also likely have to deal with a much greater number of requests. For this reason, the government is delaying when the new rule takes effect. Per the Canada Gazette, the Canadian government changed the Extension Order on July 14, 2021. However, the Gazette also noted that the change takes effect on its first anniversary. This means that on July 14, 2022, the new rule will come into force.
The new rule is a major step forward for non-Canadians. There is a delay in effect. This delay, itself, is because the change is so large and important.
© CIC News All Rights Reserved. Visit CanadaVisa.com to discover your Canadian immigration options.
While you were sleeping: How Canada performed at Tokyo Olympics Friday, Saturday – Global News
Canada won its latest swimming medal at the Tokyo Olympics Saturday, while athletes managed to advance to future rounds in multiple track and field events.
Here’s what you may have missed from the day’s events.
Kylie Masse won her second silver medal of the Tokyo Games in the women’s 200-metre backstroke, adding to her medal in the 100-metre backstroke.
Taylor Ruck, also swimming for Canada in the backstroke, managed a sixth-place finish.
On the men’s side, Brent Hayden tied for fourth in the 50-metre freestyle semifinal with Russia’s Kliment Kolesnikov — and tied his personal best time — but it wasn’t enough to the final.
Sage Watson made it through to Monday’s semifinal of the women’s 400-metre hurdles after finishing fourth in her heat. Noelle Montcalm wasn’t so lucky, placing sixth, although she managed a new season best performance.
Marco Arop won his heat in the men’s 800-metres, sending him to the semifinals on Sunday. Brandon McBride won’t join him after finishing sixth in his heat.
Defending bronze medal winner Andre De Grasse finished first in his 100-metre heat, clocking a season best time of 9.91 to qualify for the semifinals.
Fellow Canadians Gavin Smellie and Bismark Boateng failed to qualify for the semifinal, however, after both finishing eighth in their respective heats.
Meanwhile, sprinters Crystal Emmanuel and Khamica Bingham were unable to qualify for the women’s 100-metre final. Bingham finished fifth with a time of 11.22 in the first semi-final, while Emmanuel came in sixth place in the second semi-final, with a time of 11.21.
Jennifer Abel finished third in the women’s three-metre springboard semifinal, guaranteeing her a spot in the final on Sunday. Abel will be seeking her first medal in the event after finishing fourth at the 2016 Games in Rio.
Pamela Ware, who had been ranking just behind Abel in the first four rounds of the semifinal, fell to 18th place after failing her fifth dive and did not qualify for the final.
The women’s team defeated Kenya 24-10 in its final match of the Games, securing a ninth-place finish in the overall rankings.
Women leading Team Canada at Tokyo Olympics
The team of Amelie Kretz, Matthew Sharpe, Joanna Brown and Alexis Lepage managed a 15th-place finish in the mixed triathlon, nearly three-and-a-half minutes behind gold medallists Great Britain.
Mackenzie Hughes and Corey Conners both bumped themselves up to a tied 17th-place finish after the third round of play, which started for both men at the 10th hole.
Hughes finished with a score of 65, while Conners scored 66.
Tom Ramshaw managed a second-place finish in the day’s first race of the men’s one-person heavyweight finn dinghy event, later placing ninth in the second race. He’ll sail his final two races on Sunday.
The men’s 49er skiff team of William Jones and Evan DePaul placed 13th in their first race of the day, 18th in the second and PLACE in the third, ending their run at the Games.
Alexandra Ten Hove and Mariah Millen’s final three races in the women’s 49er FX skiff event saw the team place 13h in the first and 17th in the second and third.
Tammara Thibeault lost all five of her rounds in the women’s middleweight quarterfinal to Nouchka Fontijn of the Netherlands, ending her run at the Games.
Crispin Duenas was defeated by Germany’s Florian Unruh 6-2 in the men’s individual elimination round — the last round of play before the quarterfinal.
Colleen Loach and her horse Qorry Blue D’Argouges finished 42nd in third session of the team and individual dressage event.
Broady Robert Santavy finished fourth in the men’s 96-kilogram weight class, narrowly missing out on Canada’s second weightlifting medal after Maude Charron took home gold in the women’s 64-kilogram competition Tuesday.
— with files from Global News’ Saba Aziz
Tokyo Olympics: Canada wins gold medal in women’s eight rowing
© 2021 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
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